Spo's Sports Blog- Putting the Spo in Sports

Divisional Playoff home field trends

2012-01-13T13:08:00.005-06:00

For just the third time in the last 20 years, all four home teams won on Wild Card Weekend, now lets examine the importance of home field in divisional round, as the top two teams in each conference enter the fray. This is the 22nd season that the NFL has had this exact playoff format. Teams that have home field in the divisional round are 62-22, which means that on average home teams go 3-1, but they split last year with the Jets and Packers winning on the road. In the last 6 years, home teams are just 12-12, so the first 15 years of this format the home teams were winning at an 83% clip. Anyways, all 4 home teams have won 6 times, and no more than 2 road teams have won 4 times, all 4 have happened in the last 6 years. 3 years ago was the first time that more than 2 home teams have ever lost during one weekend in this round. Here it is broken down further:

#1 Seed AFC- 12-9
#2 Seed AFC- 15-6
#1 Seed NFC- 18-3
#2 Seed NFC- 17-4

3 of the 9 teams that have lost as the #1 seed in the AFC have been coached by Marty Schottenheimer.
AFC # 1 seeds that played on Saturday went 9-3, they went 4-6 on Sunday.
Home teams are 34-8 (.810) on Saturday, 28-14 on Sunday (.667)
Coincidentally the NFC home teams are 35-7 and the AFC home teams are 28-14
Peyton Manning has played in 6 divisonal playoff games. In those 6 games the home team is 1-5. He is 0-3 at home, and 2-1 on the road.

Texans finally exceed expectations after decade of disappointments

2012-01-08T03:50:00.001-06:00

A little over an hour before the scheduled kickoff at Reliant Stadium I took the elevator down from the press box to the field. I was joined by a member of the Texans media relations staff, and Joyce, the elevator attendant. The 60-second conversation that took place wasn’t about the game that was about to take place; it was about the crowd that was already in the building, something that none of us were used to seeing.

Not unlike most teams in the NFL, the Texans have had small crowds at kickoff. This can be attributed to noon starts and tailgating, but its quite common to see a half-empty Reliant Stadium when the ball is tee’d up a minute or two after 12:00 on a given Sunday. so much so, that the Texans implored their fans to enter Reliant Stadium early. On Saturday they listened.

Sixty minutes before kickoff as the first position groups jogged onto the field you could feel the energy in the building more so than any game since the Cowboys opened this place in 2002, when with the roof closed it was considered one of the loudest buildings in the NFL. A near-decade of failures and disappointments has allowed us to forget that.

Before beating Cincinnati Saturday, I’m not sure how much belief there was in this team by the city. You can only tease and then disappoint a fan base for so long before they become numb to the whole process. For years, high-hopes and expectations have given way to failure and blame. 2005, the club’s fourth season, was supposed to be the big break through. “If the Browns can make the playoffs in four seasons why can’t we”, the fans asked. That fourth season that started with such hope ended in 2-14, which put the finishing touches on the Charley Casserly/Dom Capers regime.

In came Gary Kubiak and Rick Smith from Denver. Their first season made it clear that it was time to jettison David Carr, and in came Matt Schaub, who went 8-8 his first year as a starter, the team’s first .500 finish. That brought expectations in 2008, only to see that team start 0-4, but they managed to match the 2007 record, which led to more expectations in 2009.

At the halfway point of that season they were 5-3 headed to Indianapolis. They lost that game by a field and that started a 4-game losing streak by a combined 18 points. It looked like the Kubiak era was over until the closed the season with a 4-game win streak to get them to nine wins for the first time, the last was a win over New England. They narrowly missed the playoffs, but it didn’t stop people of thinking Super Bowl the next season, which turned out to be their biggest disappointment yet.

A 4-2 start turned into a 6-10 finish, so when a 3-1 start to this season quickly turned to 3-3 it felt like another normal Houston Texan season, but it wasn’t, this team has something the others didn’t. They managed to win 7-straight despite losing starter after starter, and even some backups to those starters.

Their division-clinching win December 10^th illustrated just how different this team was. Trailing by 13 at halftime with a 3^rd string rookie quarterback, they figured out a way to win. Yet, I think that when thousands of fans met them at the airport that night, they did so because they thought that would be the only accomplishment they would get to celebrate. Its one thing to win a weakened AFC South with your top two quarterbacks and best defensive player on injured, but its another to make noise in the postseason.

Finishing the regular season with three straight losses only enhanced that belief, and that was the best thing for them. The energy that filled the building sixty minutes before kickoff wasn’t a nervous energy, it was a “we’re pumped to be here energy”. If we win, great, if not, it was a hell of a ride, and we can’t wait for next season. That rubbed off on the home team, sure, there were jitters early, but as Arian Foster said they weren’t nervous jitters, it was excitement, being somewhere they had never been before.

When they play Baltimore next week, they’ll face a team that won’t be happy to be there, they’ll face a team with pressure, a team that has been there before. That means they won’t be walking into the hornets nest the Bengals walked into Saturday. The Ravens fans will be excited to host a playoff game for the first time in five years, but they are doing so against a team they don’t care about, have no history with, and who they think they are a lot better than. That’s how most of the country will view at least, and that’s the way this Texan team likes it.

Maybe a 31-10 Wild Card win over the Bengals will be the final highlight of a successful season. Maybe it will turn out that beating a 9-7 Cincinnati team that didn’t beat another playoff team in 2011 is no big deal. It doesn’t matter. On Saturday, 71 thousand people showed up on time to Reliant Stadium wanting and hoping to see something special. After a decade of failure and disappointment, those 71 thousand people finally exited truly believing that they had something special.

Remembering the last NFL Playoff game in Houston

2012-01-07T02:27:00.002-06:00

On Sunday, January 16, 1994 the Houston Oilers hosted Kansas City in an AFC Divisional Playoff game at the Astrodome. The Oilers finished the season 12-4 after winning their final 11 regular season games. It was their 7^th straight playoff appearance, and this team was the best of the 7 as they earned a first round bye for the first time as the #2 seed in the AFC. They finished the season tied with Buffalo for the best record in the AFC, but lost the tiebreaker because of a head-to-head loss early in the season when they started 1-4. I remember most people thinking the Oilers were the favorite to come out of the AFC and face the Cowboys in the Super Bowl, but I could be wrong since I was 8 years old.

Kansas City finished the season 11-5 that season, and lost at the Dome in week 2 that season 30-0, but Joe Montana, in his first season as a Chief, did not play that game. Marty Schottenheimer's team was lucky to even have advanced to play in Houston. Trailing by 7 late at home against Pittsburgh the week before they blocked a punt late in the 4^th quarter to set up a tying touchdown, and finally beat the Steelers in overtime, but the 8-year old Adam Spolane was looking way past the Chiefs.

The day before, top-seeded Buffalo hosted the Los Angeles Raiders at Rich Stadium in the first AFC Divisional game. A Raiders win meant the Oilers would get another home game, after they beat Kansas City which of course, was a lock. I’ll always remember that game because it was 0 degrees and there were frostbite doctors on the field. I thought it was pretty cool that players could lose fingers or maybe even an arm playing a football game. Buffalo fell behind 17-6 but came back and won the game 29-23, so I knew the game against the Chiefs would be my final home game of the season, which was disappointing, but it also meant the Oilers would play in Buffalo the next week, a year after the 35-3 debacle which still haunts me to this day.

I loved the Houston Oilers. I loved the Run and Shoot Offense. I loved Warren Moon. I loved Cris Dishman. I loved Ernest Givens and his Electric Slide touchdown dance. I loved the Columbia Blue jerseys. I loved the Houston Oilers song (the one the Dolphins stole). I still remember “Start Me Up” by the Rolling Stones playing on the PA before kickoffs. I still remember “Wooly Bully” after touchdowns. Not only did I love and still remember these things, I miss them as well, and January 16, 1994 was the last time they were relevant.

On that Sunday afternoon my dad and I arrived at the Dome well earlier than an hour before kickoff, which is how I liked it, and still do. We were so early that they were showing the Cowboys/Packers game on the Diamond Vision screens. I can’t remember the exact section where we had our tickets to Oiler games, like I remember section 260 for Astro games, but I know we were in the Mezzanine, or as I called them, the Orange seats, behind the end zone towards the corner. The way the Dome was set up for football was one end zone was at home plate; the other was in centerfield. We were behind the home plate end zone, which was over the Oilers tunnel. At the Astrodome, the visitors had two tunnels. They’d enter the field before the game from where the centerfield wall was, but at halftime, and after the game, they would use an exit down the left field line, which I assume was closer to their locker room.

That ill-fated late Sunday afternoon started great. The Oilers jumped out to a 10-0 first half lead, and it stayed that way after one half of play. Of course this has me thinking about a Buffalo rematch, but it should have had me thinking about history.

Everyone knows about the 35-3 game at Buffalo the prior season, but people forget the way the Oilers season ended the year before that game. It happened in the Divisional Round in Denver. The Oilers lost to the Giants the last week of the season, which dropped them to the 3 seed forcing them to beat the Jets in the Wild Card Round and have to go to Denver. They led 14-0 and then 21-6 only to lose 26-24. Denver’s game winning drive started at their two-yard line with only 2:07 left on the clock. They drove to the Oilers 10 (88 yards) before kicking a 28-yard field goal. On this day, I should’ve known a 10-point lead might as well have been a 10-point deficit.

Houston still led 10-7 going into the fourth quarter, but the last 15 minutes was a complete disaster even after the Oilers started the quarter with a field goal to extend the lead to 13-7. I mentioned that Joe Montana didn’t play when the Oilers crushed KC in week 2; unfortunately he played on January 16. The Chiefs scored 3 fourth quarter touchdowns and beat the Oilers 28-20, snapping the Oilers 11-game win streak, which would mark the end of a football era in the city of Houston.

January 16, 1994 was the last time the Oilers would take the field with hall of famers Moon and Mike Munchak. Moon went to Minnesota and Munchak retired. When the Oilers opened the next season, Cody Carlson was their starting quarterback, the first of three that they used with the others being Bucky Richardson and Billy Joe Tolliver. I think it has to be the only time in NFL history that one team started 3 quarterbacks in a season who played in the Southwest Conference (Carlson: Baylor, Richardson: Texas A&M, Tolliver: Texas Tech). The ’94 Oilers went 2-14, losing 11 straight games at one point, which I would have to believe makes them the only team to win 11 in a row one year and lose 11 in a row the next.

Soon after the 2-14 season, the Oilers were gone to Memphis and then Nashville. Six years after that the Texans arrived and finally in their tenth season, they will host a playoff game in the parking lot that my dad and I were stuck trying to get out of for over an hour on January 16, 1994.

AFC Wild Card Homefield Trends

2012-01-06T17:00:00.001-06:00

This is the 10th season of the four division setup in each conference. It has drastically changed the playoffs because there is one less wild card, and it pretty much makes it impossible to play a home playoff without winning your division. We are just hours away from the start of Wild Card Weekend, and here is a trend that I have noticed over the last 9 years (02-10) with the record of home teams in wild card games as opposed to the nine years prior to the realignment (93-01).

2002-2010 Home teams went 19-17 (.528)

1993-2001 Home teams went 28-8 (.778)

I break it down further:

2002-2010 the #4 seeds went 10-8 (.556)

1993-2001 the #4 seeds went 15-3 (.833)

2002-2010 the #3 seed went 9-9 (.500)

1993-2001 the #3 seed went 13-5 (.722)

Now lets look at it by conference:

2002-2010 AFC Home teams went 9-9 (.500)

1993-2001 AFC Home teams went 14-4 (778)

2002-2010 AFC #3 seeds went 5-4 (.556)

1993-2001 AFC #3 seeds went 8-1 (.889)

2002-2010 AFC #4 seeds went 4-5 (.444)

1993-2001 AFC #4 seeds went 6-3 (.667)

2002-2010 NFC Home teams went 10-8 (.556)

1993-2001 NFC Home teams went 14-4 (.778)

2002-2010 NFC #3 seeds went 4-5 (.444)

1993-2001 NFC #3 seeds went 5-4 (.556)

2002-2010 NFC #4 seeds went 6-3 (.667)

1993-2001 NFC #4 seeds went 9-0 (1.000)

NOTE: AFC home teams have lost 5 straight games in this round

Taking a closer look at the 3 finalists for the Rockets job

2011-05-19T11:00:00.002-05:00

After interviewing seemingly everyone who has ever spent time on an NBA coaching staff, the Houston Rockets have whittled their list to three names to replace Rick Adelman, who was fired last month: Lawrence Frank, Dwane Casey, and Kevin McHale. This will be the third coach hired in the Les Alexander era, and regardless of who the Rockets elect to hire, this coach will not have the track record of the previous two (Jeff Van Gundy and Adelman) who had coached their previous team’s to the NBA Finals. Of the three finalists, only one has taken his team to the second round, the other two have never made the playoffs. A decision could be made any day, and I thought I’d take a closer look at the men who could become the next Rockets coach.

Lawrence Frank

Frank is the safest choice of the three, which makes me think he won’t be the guy. After Adelman was let go, Adrian Wojnarowski from Yahoo! said the Rockets wanted to unearth the next NBA coaching star, making it sound like they didn’t want a known entity, which Frank is, with over 450 games as a head coach under his belt. He took over the Nets in the middle of the 03-04 season when Byron Scott was pushed out by Jason Kidd (allegedly) after taking the Nets to the NBA Finals two straight seasons. The Nets finished third in the East, losing a 7-game series to Detroit, who won the championship. Jersey went out in the first round in 05, and reached the second round the next two seasons. His last three seasons with the Nets were bad, as the team ended the Jason Kidd and Vince Carter eras. He lost 16 straight to begin last season and was fired. Frank was a manager at Indiana under Bob Knight, and is thought of highly around the league. His New Jersey teams seemingly played to their potential. He was never upset in the playoffs, and he pulled one upset, as the six seed in ’06 beating Toronto in 6 games.

Kevin McHale

The Hall of Famer is the ultimate wild card in this mix. He has never coached a full season in the NBA. He has never been an assistant in the NBA. He spent close to 15 years running the Timberwolves basketball operations. He did some good things in that span, and some bad things, but for about a decade, the Wolves were always competitive, and he did draft Kevin Garnett in 1995, when drafting high school kids was not in style. McHale has been an NBA head coach for 94 games. He finished the 05 season 19-12 after firing Flip Saunders a season after the TWolves finished with the best record in the West. He was not interested in being a full-time coach after that because of the grind, and actually hired Dwayne Casey as his replacement. McHale’s second coaching stint came in December of 2008 after Randy Whitman was fired. He stepped down as VP of Basketball Operations and became the full-time head coach. He took over a team that was 4-15, and lost his first eight games, but followed that up by winning 12-of-16, and it looked like the Wolves might have been on the right track, but Al Jefferson blew out his knee, and Minnesota ended the season 8-31, and Wolves owner Glen Taylor surprisingly let McHale go, even though he made it clear that he wanted to remain Minnesota’s coach. McHale has never started the season as a head coach, so Morey and company would be taking an enormous gamble to handa the reins to him.

Dwane Casey

When he was an assistant at Kentucky in the late 80’s Casey was caught mailing $1,000 dollars to Chris Mills. That discovery, along with many others, led to the resignation of Eddie Sutton at UK, and it put the Wildcats on probation, which allowed Rick Pitino to swoop into the Lexington. Casey wound up coaching in Japan, until the mid 90’s when he joined George Karl’s staff in Seattle, where he would remain an assistant for ten years under Karl and Nate McMillan before being hired by McHale in 2005. He inherited a terrible team and won just 33 games in his first season, and was fired after somehow managing to split 40 games the next season. Ricky Davis was his second best player. Since he was fired the Wolves have gone 90-280, so its safe to say his teams didn’t under achieve. He is now an assistant for the Mavericks, who could very well be the best-coached team in the entire league. I don’t know how much of that is because of him, but the Mavs are in the middle of a deep playoff run, and the last assistant to get a head coach job during a deep playoff run was Tom Thibodeau, and he was the coach of the year this season. Although the year before Kurt Rambis got head coach job, so never mind.

I have no idea what the direction the Rockets will go, or how much longer they will wait, but what I do know is that whoever they bring in will not have near the credentials that the last two coaches brought in by Les Alexander have had, and that concerns me.

Why I'm not taking sides during the Eastern Conference Finals

2011-05-15T17:45:00.002-05:00

When you go to college over a thousand miles from home, like I did going to Indiana, you meet and befriend all sorts of people from all walks of life. My experience was no different. Three years ago when finished school, I left friends from all across this great country of ours, including the cities of Miami and Chicago, where some of my best friends reside. Because of this, I have decided to not be an obnoxious douche bag by taking sides over the next two weeks when the Heat and Bulls play for the Eastern Conference title. Its called growing up.

For much of my life, I have basked in my friend’s misery when their teams have lost. I have done the same all throughout this season with the Heat, so much so, to where I drove a friend of a friend into hating me even though he has never met me! I have done the same thing to my Chicago friends. I remember giggling like a high school girl as the Cubs were getting swept in the Division Series by Arizona and then by the Dodgers. Hell, I even wasted $30 on a Pittsburgh Pirates hat when we went to Wrigley for a Cubs game. I will do this no more.

Now, I do have rivalries with these respective cities, like with the Cubs and Dolphins, but when it comes to this series I have none. The Rockets are in the other conference, and its not like they have a history with either team, so why do I care who wins and loses? The truth is, I don’t, so why take sides against friends when I don’t have to? This series has the potential to be one of the best 7-game series that we’ve ever seen, so I am just going to sit back and enjoy. When it is all said and done I will congratulate my friends who win, and console those that lose.

So, I wish everyone involved the best of luck. We have three of the five best players in the world playing in two its loudest arenas (except for the first and third quarters in Miami), which will have the seats full for all 48 minutes (by human beings in Chicago and by white bed sheets in Miami). Its hard not to like either of the teams. You have the Bulls with the young, humble superstar, who has never been to this point before. For Miami you have the great LeBron James, whose string of MVP titles was snapped. He has the experience of failing in big games before, and how about Dwanye Wade. What a classy guy, and you know a guy wants to win when he tries to snap the elbow off another team’s best player, and you can’t not talk about these two teams without talking about their histories. The Bulls have six NBA Championships that were won by Michael Jordan, and the Heat won their title 5 years when Wade and Bennett Salvatore coupled to shock the Mavericks.

If you don’t have a dog in this fight, or money on the line, you might be tempted to take sides in this series. Don’t do it. Just sit back and enjoy the show, just like me, and may the best team win!

Conference Semifinal Predictions

2011-05-01T11:55:00.002-05:00

Here are my predictions for the Confernce Semifinals. I was 5-3 with my before-series picks in round 1, and 6-2 with my mid series picks.

Eastern Conference

#1 Chicago vs #5 Atlanta

Even though they beat Orlando in round 1, the Hawks were probably the least impressive out of the 8 teams remaining, but they are in the second round for the 3rd straight year, one of 3 teams that can say that (LAL, BOS). However, it is important to note that they have been swept in this round each of the last two seasons. They looked great against the Magic at times, but they weren't consistent with that great play, which is how they have always been. I don't think they are capable of being great for an entire game. The Hinrich injury is huge because he is their best shot at slowing down Derrick Rose, and now Jeff Teague is going to have to see important minutes in this series.

Prediction: Bulls in 5

#2 Miami vs #3 Boston

This series is being hyped up more than a Yankees/Red Sox series, which will get annoying soon if it hasn't already. Everyone is talking about how important this series is for LeBron James, but I think it is just as important for Chris Bosh. He has something to prove, and if he can't come through against Kevin Garnett, I think the Heat will have a decision to make with him. I like Boston in this series because I don't think Miami can match its sense of urgency, especially early in games. Its one thing to come from behind against the Sixers, its another to have to do it over and over against the Celtics. As dumb as it sounds, the most important players for the Heat could win up being Mike Bibby, Mario Chalmers, and James Jones. They have to knock down shots.

Prediction: Celtics in 6

Western Conference

#4 Oklahoma City vs #8 Memphis

When the Thunder made the Jeff Green for Kendrick Perkins trade everyone immediately talked about how that trade would help them against the Lakers. Well, as it turns out, its going to help them immensely against the Grizzlies. Perkins will help OKC matchup inside against Memphis. Even though they beat Denver in 5 games, I saw something that worried me about the Thunder: Russell Westbrook. He played selfish against the Nuggets, and I think thats the first time that has happened with this OKC team. Memphis would love nothing more than for him to hoist up 30 shots a game. Memphis shot over 47% against San Antonio, and I'm not sure that can continue. This could be a great series, and neither team lost at home in the first round.

Prediction: Thunder in 7

#2 LA Lakers vs #3 Dallas

Dirk and Kobe finally meet in the playoffs, and its a chance to see Jason Terry and Matt Barnes go at it after they had that little scuffle back towards the end of the regular season. Dallas played much better in the first round against a better team, but I still don't like the matchup for them because of rebounding. They didn't rebound well against Portland, and as has been said hundreds of times, that how the Lakers beat you. I think Dallas will cause the Lakers problems with Terry and Nowitzki, but they are just a little too reliant on the 3 to beat LA.

Prediction: Lakers in 7

Win percentages after game 2 of a best of 7 series

2011-04-21T13:05:00.003-05:00

Earlier in the week I went through the last 211 best of 7 NBA playoff series, and I gave you the winning percentages for the team that has home court advantage following game 1. I will repeat the info here, and add what the percentages are following game 2.

In the last 211 best of 7 series the home team won game one 159 times. 140 of those teams won the series (88%).

When the team with home court advantage took a 2-0 series lead they won the series 93.3% of the time (113/121)

In the last 211 best of 7 series the road team won game one 52 times, 30 of those teams won the series (58%).

Just 10 of those 52 teams would go home with a 2-0 series lead, 7 of those teams held on and won the series (2005 Houston lost to Dallas in 7 games after winning games 1 and 2 in Dallas, and 1994 Phoenix lost to Houston in 7 games after winning games 1 and 2 in Houston.)

Of the last 211 best of 7 series, 80 have been split after 2 games. The team that began the series with the home court advantage won the series 49 times (61.3%)

Don’t be fooled by the 10 times in 20 years when it comes to the road team winning the first 2 games, it is much more rare than once every 2 years. I happened 4 times in a 3 year stretch from ’93-’95. The Rockets have been involved in both cases of a team blowing a 2-0 lead going home, they have actually been involved in 5 of the 10 series.

In 1995 they won the first 2 games on the road of the Western Conference Finals against San Antonio, and they took the first 2 games of the Finals in Orlando. They lost the first 2 games at home in 2008 against Utah. The teams that came back after losing the first 2 games at home each won the next 3, would lose on the road in game 6, and then win game 7 at home.

Updated first round predictions

2011-04-21T12:58:00.001-05:00

Each series has played 2 games, and as I have done now for a few years, I have updated my predictions on all 8 series. The only flip-flop that I have on the actual winner of the series is Dallas/Portland. I change the number of games a series will go in 4 of the other 7.

#1 Chicago vs #8 Indiana

Just like I predicted, the Pacers have been frisky; it just wasn't enough to win a game in Chicago. This series has been a lot of fun to watch because of how hard the Pacers play, and the Bulls have matched that intensity. There is just such a big talent disparity, so I still cannot see the Pacers winning a game, especially with Darren Collinson being iffy for the games at Conseco. The Bulls should be concerned because they haven't looked great.

Prediction before series: Bulls in 4

Prediction after 2 games: Bulls in 4

#2 Miami vs #7 Philadelphia

Much like the Bulls/Pacers series there is such a big talent disparity. As Doug Collins said after game 2, Miami is just better, and when they play well, his team can't win. Miami is just a bad matchup for Philly. I thought the Sixers could win a game in this series, but I don't see it now.

Prediction before series: Heat in 5

Prediction after 2 games: Heat in 4

#3 Boston vs #6 New York

Two terrific games in Boston that the Celts pulled out, now the Knicks are beaten up heading home, with Billups and Stoudemire hurt. You have to wonder if the Knicks fired their two best shots in Boston. Celtics haven’t looked great, but like Chicago, they have come up big in big moments. When you are the Knicks, and you are clearly playing a superior team, you have to take advantage of the chances you get, and the Knicks haven’t done that. There is no guarantee they get the same chances down the stretch they got in Boston.

Prediction before series: Celtics in 5

Prediction after 2 games: Celtics in 5

#4 Orlando vs #5 Atlanta

Dwight Howard has been dominant through 2 games, the guys around him have been bad, and Atlanta has shot the ball well, but the series is tied 1-1. The Hawks have been content letting Howard do what he wants, and it should be interesting to see if they continue that strategy. I think I’d rather let the guys around him try and beat me. Atlanta has looked good thus far, but I don’t know if they can continue to shoot lights out.

Prediction before series: Magic in 5

Prediction after 2 games: Magic in 6

Western Conference

#1 San Antonio vs #8 Memphis

San Antonio didn’t have Manu Ginobli in game 1 and they lost, he was back for game 2 and they won. He should be the difference the rest of the way. I said before the series that I thought the Spurs would figure out a way to slow Zack Randolph, and they did a good job in game 2, but nobody else stepped up. The perimeter players are going to be the key for Memphis the rest of the series.

Prediction before series: Spurs in 6

Prediction after 2 games: Spurs in 6

#2 LA Lakers vs #7 New Orleans

New Orleans shocked everyone and beat LA in game 1, but despite Kobe Bryant scoring just 11 points, the Lakers evened the series. The Hornets play very good defense, and that will keep them in games, and they will force the Lakers to grind out wins, but as I said before the series, the Lakers are just a bad matchup for New Orleans. I don’t think the Hornets will win another game.

Prediction before series: Lakers in 4

Prediction after 2 games: Lakers in 5

#3 Dallas vs #6 Portland.

Dallas is up 2-0 in a series for the first time since the 2006 NBA Finals, which saw them lose four straight, but I’d be shocked if that happened in this series. Dallas has shot the ball well, and played great in the fourth quarter of both games. They have also defended great, packing everything inside, forcing Portland to hit outside shots, which they can’t do. The Blazers simply haven’t been able to get many easy shots in the half court. I’m just not sure how any of that changes for the Blazers. Their best hope is for Dallas to start missing shots. Portland is a tough place to play, and I can certainly see the series being even heading back to Dallas, but I wonder if Portland is capable of winning a game at Dallas. I’m not so sure.

Prediction before series: Blazers in 6

Prediction after 2 games: Mavericks in 5

#4 Oklahoma City vs #5 Denver

As great as game 1 was between these teams, game two was just as awful. You can argue that Denver should’ve won the first game, but they didn’t, and they didn’t back up that performance up last night. The Nuggets are deep, but they are lacking a big time scorer, and they are going up against two of them. The next two games will be all about seeing of the Thunder can win a road playoff game. They don’t need to in order to win this series, but I think they will, and it very well could vault them to a deep playoff run.

Prediction before series: Thunder in 6

Prediction after 2 games: Thunder in 5

Why Game 1 is so important

2011-04-17T23:41:00.002-05:00

All weekend you heard about the importance of winning the first game of a playoff series. It is true that the winner of game 1 wins the series about 80% of the time, but I dug a little deeper. In all, I took the last 211 best of 7 NBA playoff series, which goes back 21 years.

170 of the 211 teams that won game 1 went on to win the series, which is 80.6%. I then separated the series into two categories: the first being when the home team wins game 1, the second being when to road team wins game 1. Here is what I found:

In the last 211 best of 7 series the home team won game one 159 times. 140 of those teams won the series (88%).

In the last 211 best of 7 series the road team won game one 52 times. Only 30 of those teams won the series (58%).

What is also important to note is that in the last 211 best of seven series, the team with the home court advantage has won 162 times (77%).

It’s not hard to figure out why these numbers are the way they are. The team with home court is in most cases the better team. The reason why only 19 teams with home court have lost a series after winning game is that you are asking an inferior team to win 4 of the next 6 games. Its hard enough for those teams to win 3 of 6, as you can see by close to half of the road teams losing a series after winning game 1.

So while its just game 1, and it’s a long series, you can argue that the first game is the most important. It sets the tone for the rest of the series.

I also have percentages of what happens in a series after 2 games, and I will post it tomorrow.

NBA First Round Playoff Picks

2011-04-16T01:25:00.002-05:00

Here are my pre-series first round NBA Playoff predictions. I went 11-4 in my pre-series picks last year. Remember, I will make new predictions after each series has completed two games. The schedule is a little strange this year because the all 4 East series will be done with or almost done with their game 2’s before the West series start theirs, so I will post new East predictions on Tuesday night, and West picks by Thursday afternoon.

Eastern Conference

#1 Chicago vs #8 Indiana

It’s a battle between the top 2 teams in the Central division. Ok, that might be a little misleading since the Bulls won the division by 25 games. Indiana is in the playoffs despite winning just 37 games, and I don’t expect that number to increase over the next week. The Pacers might be a little frisky, and they have been doing a little talking, but I’d be surprised if they don’t get swept. Chicago’s defense really gave Indiana problems during the regular season, and with the pace of the game’s slowing down in the postseason I think those struggles will only get worse. Best chance for Indiana to win a game will be on nights when the Bulls wings can’t hit shots. They have to be able to capitalize on that, but simply put they just don’t have the talent to hang with Chicago.

Prediction: Bulls in 4

#2 Miami vs #7 Philadelphia

I like the Sixers, especially their guards, but talent wise I don’t think they have enough to push Miami. Philly’s big challenge will be taking care of the ball against the Heat pressure defense. Fortunately for them, they are among the best in the league at taking care of the ball. I just don’t think the Sixers will be able to get enough from their perimeter scorers. I also don’t think that they can hurt Miami inside, plus the Sixers have nobody to stop Dwayne Wade. Philly can win a game in this series, but I don’t see it going longer than 5.

Prediction: Heat in 5

#3 Boston vs #6 New York

I made the mistake of picking against Boston when they finished 27-27 last year, I won’t do it again, at least in this series. The Knicks are probably the worst defensive team in the playoffs, and against a team that executes like Boston I don’t see them getting any stops at the end of games. The Knicks will win a game or maybe even two solely on the talent of Anthony and Stoudemire, along with the Madison Square Garden atmosphere, but it won’t be enough to get them wins in Boston.

Prediction: Celtics in 5

#4 Orlando vs #5 Atlanta

Last year, this was the most lopsided non-first round series I have ever seen. Don’t think that will be the case this season, but Orlando should still win. The big reason why Orlando owned Atlanta last year was Jameer Nelson torching Mike Bibby. Well, Bibby is gone, and Kirk Hinrich is a much better defender, but the Hawks still aren’t that good defensively. The big challenge for Orlando will be dealing with the 3-headed monster of Al Horford, Jason Collins, and Zaza Pachulia, and they are capable of taking Howard out of games. He can’t get frustrated fighting for position against them because Marcin Gortat isn’t behind him anymore, and their defense fall off dramatically. All that being said, Atlanta finished the regular season terribly, looking disinterested, only they don’t have a championship pedigree to fall back on.

Prediction: Magic in 5

Western Conference

#1 San Antonio vs #8 Memphis

Never thought I would see the day when in a series between the Spurs and Grizzlies, Memphis would be the better defensive team, but they are. Memphis will be a problem for San Antonio, especially if Ginobli misses games. The Spurs aren’t that good inside, and Memphis with Randolph and Gasol can really give them problems, but I don’t think Memphis is good enough along the perimeter. They are going to need OJ Mayo to have a big season, and he was bad this season. The Spurs will try and take Randolph out of the offense making it key that guys like Tony Allen and Shane Battier knock down shots. Big problem for Memphis will be stopping Tony Parker. I don’t think Mike Conley is up to it. Also, Memphis, a franchise that has never won a playoff game, tanked its final two regular season games in hopes of playing San Antonio. I think that may backfire.

Prediction: Spurs in 6

#2 LA Lakers vs #7 New Orleans

The Lakers catch every break, as they are able to avoid both Memphis and Portland, which puts them up against a very average New Orleans team. Chris Paul is a bad matchup is a bad matchup for the Lakers, but nobody else is. New Orleans is too small inside, and their wings simply can’t score enough. LA was pushed in the first round last year, they won’t be this time around.

Prediction: Lakers in 4

#3 Dallas vs #6 Portland.

Since losing to the Heat in the Finals 5 years ago, the Mavs have gotten out of the first round just once. Why? Because they haven’t had a viable #2 option, that remains the case this season. Jason Kidd and Jason Terry finished the season in shooting slumps, and Shawn Marion and Tyson Chandler are too reliant on other people to help them score. The size and length of Portland will give Dallas problems, especially the guards. Portland isn’t a great offensive team, but they are more versatile, and can create more matchup problems than Dallas can. The Mavs are tough to play against when you don’t have time to prepare for them, but in a series, when you get used to them, the matchup isn’t quite as daunting. The Dirk/Aldridge matchup should be fun, as will Camby/Chandler.

Prediction: Blazers in 6

#4 Oklahoma City vs #5 Denver

Its almost like the Nuggets are playing the team they used to be when it was Carmelo/Iverson and Carmelo/Billups. Denver is banged up, and you have to think they are a little physically and mentally exhausted after what has been a great run for them since the Anthony trade. Should be a great/physical matchup between Perkins and Nene, but OK City beat Denver twice down the stretch. Denver reminds me a little of Phoenix last year with their depth, but had guys with bigger upsides. Best two players in this series play for the Thunder, and they will likely play more than 40 minutes a game.

Prediction: Thunder in 6

EXCLUSIVE: Mike Davis front runner for Miami job

2011-04-10T14:20:00.004-05:00

According to a Miami source, The University of Miami has asked for and been given permission to speak with UAB head coach Mike Davis about becoming the next Miami basketball coach, replacing Frank Haith who left for Missouri on Monday. He is the first candidate that Miami has asked to speak with, and appears to be the front runner to land the Hurricanes job.

Davis, 50, just completed his fifth season with the Blazers, leading the team to the NCAA Tournament, and a Conference USA regular season title. He has compiled a record of 107-57 since taking over for Mike Anderson, who left after the 2006 for Missouri. UAB hasn’t finished outside the top 3 in Conference USA since Davis’s first season in Birmingham.

Prior UAB, Davis replaced Bob Knight as the head coach at Indiana. He went 115-79 in six seasons at Indiana, leading the Hoosiers to the National Championship Game in 2002, upsetting Duke and Oklahoma in the process. In February of 2006 he announced that he would not be returning to Indiana for a 7^th season. He would be the 14^th coach in Miami’s history.

After Haith’s resignation Monday, the name that immediately came to the forefront to replace him was Kansas State head coach Frank Martin because of his deep Miami roots. Martin, the son of Cuban immigrants was born in Miami, and he coached at various Miami area high schools for 15 years, winning 3-straight state championships at Miami High School in 1996-98, but as I reported earlier this week, Miami officials, including school president Donna Shalala were scared off by Martin’s baggage.

Martin was fired from Miami High School in 1999 after the school’s 1998 state championship was vacated due to recruiting violations that involved school employees and boosters. Martin was never accused of wrongdoing, but he was still let go.

The other issue with Martin is money. His contract with Kansas State pays him $1.5 million a year, so the school would have to be able to offer him a raise, something that Miami doesn’t seem interested in doing. Davis makes just over $600 thousand at UAB.

Look for Miami to make a hire early this week. If Davis does not get the job, I’m told the school will look to make a run at current Murray State coach, and former Miami assistant Billy Kennedy or Harvard head coach Tommy Amaker.

For Bruce Weber, its not about beating Kansas, its about beating Bill Self

2011-03-20T11:29:00.002-05:00

April 21, 2003. My junior year at Memorial High School, I was in Lawrence, Kansas, taking my first college visit at the University of Kansas. It was a jubilant day on the KU campus, not because I was there, but because it also happened to be the very day that Bill Self left a jilted Illinois to become the head basketball coach of the Kansas Jayhawks. Nine days later Bruce Weber was named as Self’s replacement, but he has never been fully embraced, because the Illini faithful have not been able to let go of Self. On Sunday, Weber has the chance to beat the coach that his team’s fans would rather have, and he knows it.

In three years at Illinois, Self won 78 games, two Big Ten titles, and advanced in the NCAA Tournament as far as the Elite Eight, which came in his first year, after taking Tulsa there the season before. He was loved in Champaign, and they were crushed when he left. Just 40 at the time, he was the man they wanted to sit on their bench for decades like Harry Coombes and Lou Henson had, only more successful.

Weber was a logical replacement. A Midwest guy who was an assistant for Gene Keady at Purdue for almost 20 years. He left Purdue in 1998 to take over at Southern Illinois in Carbondale, just 175 miles from Champaign, where he won over 100 games in five seasons. He won conference titles his final two campaigns, and upset Texas Tech and Georgia en-route to a Sweet 16 appearance in 2002, but the Illinois fans didn’t want Weber, they wanted Self.
Early on, it was a struggle early on for Weber in his first season at Illinois. All the talk was about Self, and it had become a distraction, so how do you get rid of a distraction you ask? You kill it, you bury it, and that was what Weber did. He held a Bill Self mock funeral; in essence saying that Bill Self is gone, I’m here, let’s move on together.

In their first seasons at their new schools, both Weber and Self enjoyed a great deal of success. Weber won the Big Ten and reached the Sweet 16, while Self once again got to the Elite Eight. The next year, Illinois almost ran the table and won a National Championship, losing just its final regular season game, and the championship game. Self’s Jayhawks were stunned by Bucknell in the first round that year, and by Bradley a year later, and it looked like Weber had gotten the Illini faithful to forget about the guy who preceded him. That didn’t last long.

For Weber, things started to go downhill before the 2006-07 season when Eric Gordon de-committed from Illinois and signed with conference rival Indiana. That season Illinois was the last team to make the tournament, losing in the first round, while Self guided Kansas to another Elite Eight. Then disaster struck.

Self one-upped Weber’s 2005 dream season three years later with a national championship, something that even Roy Williams couldn’t do at Kansas, in fact he beat Williams in the Final Four. That same season Illinois finished under .500, 9th in the Big Ten, and missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time in nine years. 2009 saw an upset to Western Kentucky in the first round, and last year they missed the tournament again. All this while Self has put together one of the nation’s best programs. Kansas has won at least a share of the Big 12 seven straight years, and the Jayhawks have a 162-21 record the last five. It has reminded people in Illinois what might have been if he hadn’t left for Kansas eight years ago.

On Friday Illinois did something they hadn’t done in five years when they won an NCAA Tournament game. Now on Sunday Weber has a chance to show the supporters of his program that there is no reason to miss the days of Bill Self. A win could very well put the fans at ease that the program is in great shape with Weber at the helm, that they don’t need that guy who came before him and left them in the dust.

Illinois beating Kansas gets the Illini to the Sweet 16 in San Antonio next week, but in the mid of Bruce Weber, beating Bill Self forever puts a close to the Bill Self era in Champaign, and the Illinois faithful can embrace their current coach the way they embraced their former coach.

Rockets/Aaron Brooks relationship is unravelling

2011-02-07T23:53:00.001-06:00

Back in August, I wrote that the Kyle Lowry contract could spell the end for Aaron Brooks as a Rocket. On a team that had needs, it didn’t make sense to pay two point guards more than $6 million a year, with Brooks likely to want more than Lowry when it would be time to extend his contract, which expires after this season. He wanted an extension in the summer, the Rockets said “no”, and things have spiraled downward ever since.

At the start of training camp Brooks said he was not happy about being denied a new contract. I don’t have a problem with him publicly saying he’s upset, in fact I don’t blame him for that, but what I have a problem with is that Brooks has allowed his unhappiness to affect his play. You could see it in his body language when the season started, and then he got hurt. Much to his displeasure he has come off the bench ever-since, and on Saturday it appears he finally had enough when after he was taken out of the Rockets game against Memphis he went to the locker room and not the bench.

Brooks is in a contract year, and his numbers are down drastically from last season, and with that, Brooks is seeing his next contract getting smaller, but in all honesty, the money that he’s losing has nothing to do with his numbers, it has to do with his attitude.

I have no problem with players not being happy with their contracts, but the way you handle the unhappiness says a lot about you, and Brooks has handled it poorly, which culminated in him quitting on Saturday night. The problem is, Brooks has nobody to blame for his poor season other than himself. He has simply not played well, and its obvious that his contract is the reason.

Rick Adelman and Brooks have had issues since the point guard returned from a sprained ankle because Brooks wants to start, and get his starters minutes back. Unfortunately Brooks hasn’t been good enough to play 35 minutes a game. It is quite apparent that the Brooks/Rockets relationship has been fractured over the last six months, but up until Saturday night I never got the feeling the Rockets were upset it Brooks. I think they understood his frustration. I don’t think the relationship can be repaired, and I don’t think the Rockets want to repair it.

Darryl Morey now has a reason to jettison Brooks either before the trade deadline or during the summer. Walking out on a team in the fourth quarter of a game that is still in doubt ends any good will a player has publicly. I think the Rockets will try and trade Brooks before the trade deadline this month, but more pressing right now is when will Brooks next suit up. He was suspended for the game Monday night in Denver, the first game of a back-to-back that will conclude in Houston against Minnesota. Brooks should not play against the Wolves.

For this Jets fan, today is personal

2011-01-16T12:18:00.000-06:00

DISCLAIMER: In this post, I will be breaking one of my golden rules and will be referring to the Jets in the first person. I apologize in advance.

In the run up to the Jets/Colts game last week, Rex Ryan said it was personal between him and Peyton Manning, who has always gotten the best of him in the past. As a Jets fan, I didn’t feel the same way about last week’s game, even though they had beaten us last year in the AFC title game, but I understood where Rex was coming from. To be perfectly honest, I was looking past the Colts. Assuming the Jets got past the Colts, we knew who we’d get next: New England. This one is personal.

Living in Houston, I was an Oilers fan until the very end, which was the ’96 season. I vowed I would not follow them to Tennessee, so I needed a new team. I chose the New York Jets, a team that had combined to win four games the previous two seasons. I was drawn to them because of Keyshawn Johnson, who was drafted #1 overall in the ’96 draft out of USC. After his rookie year when the Jets went 1-15, he wrote a book called Just Give Me the Damn Ball. I thought it was hilarious, putting the word damn in your books title, what middle schooler isn’t going to love that? It didn’t hurt that with Keyshawn and Bill Parcells that the Jets immediately turned things around, narrowly missing the playoffs in ’97 and getting within a half of going to the Super Bowl the next season. I was hooked then, and still am.

In my early Jet years, I was pretty indifferent about the Patriots. I just treated them like a normal division rival. Maybe it was because being in Houston I was disconnected from the whole Boston/New York rivalry. I knew they didn’t like us because we had taken Parcells and Curtis Martin away from them, and they immediately declined to where they were irrelevant for a couple of years. For me, the hatred was all for the Miami Dolphins, or as I referred to them for a while “our little bitches”. Up until the last couple of years, we have owned the series with them, and its always fun watching them lose, even now, despite the fact that they are about as relevant as the Bills. I’m not sure when I started to hate the Pats, but the hate has grown year after year.

Let’s face it, the Jets are responsible for the decade of Pats dominance. Bill Belichick resigned as the Jets coach because the Hess family, who had just given him a million dollars to remain defensive coordinator with the promise of being named head coach when Parcells left, sold the team to Woody Johnson, and wound up taking the Pats job. Then in week 2 of the 2001 season, with all of New England wanting Belichick fired, Jets linebacker Mo Lewis leveled Drew Bledsoe and collapsed his lung, which awoke the long-haired monster known as Tom Brady. The Jets won that game, but have beaten the Pats very few times since.

There have been some big games between these two teams in that span, and seemingly every win has gone their way, and many of those have been blowouts. Both teams were 5-0 when they met in Foxboro in 2004. Pats won. They crushed us in a big battle week 16 that season at the Meadowlands. The won the only playoff game between the two teams in this era back in the 2006 season, and there was the 45-3 embarrassment in December. Sure we have some wins over them in that span, but it seems like they have answered every time in a bigger game. That was the case in 2006, and that was the case this season. Today, the Jets have the chance to answer, and wipe the smug smiles off the face of Brady, Welker, and the rest of them. This time its personal.

Divisional Round Homefield Trends

2011-01-14T12:03:00.002-06:00

The Wild Card teams continued their winning ways last week, going 3-1 against the homestanding division champs, now lets examine the importance of home field in divisional round, as the top two teams in each conference enter the fray. This is the 22nd season that the NFL has had this exact playoff format. Teams that have home field in the divisional round are 63-21, which means that on average home teams go 3-1, which was how they fared last year, but the last 4 years prior, home teams were just 7-9, so the first 16 years of this format the home teams were winning at an 83% clip. Anyways, all 4 home teams have won 6 times, and no more than 2 road teams have won 4 times, all 4 have happened in the last 6 years. 2 years ago was the first time that more than 2 home teams have ever lost during one weekend in this round. Here it is broken down further:

#1 Seed AFC- 13-8

#2 Seed AFC- 15-6

#1 Seed NFC- 19-2

#2 Seed NFC- 16-5

3 of the 8 teams that have lost as the #1 seed in the AFC have been coached by Marty Schottenheimer.
AFC # 1 seeds that played on Saturday went 9-3, they went 4-5 on Sunday.
Home teams are 35-7 (.833) on Saturday, 28-14 on Sunday (.667)
Coincidentally the NFC home teams are 35-7 and the AFC home teams are 28-14
Peyton Manning has played in 6 divisonal playoff games. In those 6 games the home team is 1-5. He is 0-3 at home, and 2-1 on the road.

Wild Card Homefield Trends

2011-01-08T15:21:00.002-06:00

This is the 9th season of the four division setup in each conference. It has drastically changed the playoffs because there is one less wild card, and it pretty much makes it impossible to play a home playoff without winning your division. We are just hours away from the start of Wild Card Weekend, and here is a trend that I have noticed over the last 8 years (02-09) with the record of home teams in wild card games as opposed to the seven years prior to the realignment (96-01).

2002-2009 Home teams went 18-14 (.563)

1995-2001 Home teams went 22-6 (.786)

I break it down further:

2002-2009 the #4 seeds went 9-7

1995-2001 the #4 seeds went 11-3

2002-2009 the #3 seed went 9-7

1995-2001 the #3 seed went 11-3

Normally, this one is pretty easy to explain. With the extra division the home teams are simply not as good as the teams they are facing. No year better illustrates this then this season. None of the teams hosting playoff games this weekend have better records than their opponents, including a 4-game spread between the Saints and Seahawks.

Remember the 4-5 game was between 2 wild card teams before 2002, so the 4 seed was the better team throughout the regular season thus the 10-2 record.

Here is another interesting note: Two years ago, the Cardinals became the first 4 seed to make it to the Super Bowl since the league expanded to 4 divisions. There have been 2 Wild Cards that have gotten to the Super Bowl in that span (Steelers '05, Giants '07)

Trading Gay for Battier still the right move

2010-12-17T22:49:00.002-06:00

On draft night in 2006, the Rockets traded the 8^th pick to Memphis, who turned into Rudy Gay, for Shane Battier. It was a controversial deal when it was made because of the immense talent that Gay possesses, compared to the limited up side of Battier, who the Rockets thought was the perfect compliment to Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. This is the fifth season since that trade was made, and the Rockets were right about Battier, but as the Yao/McGrady duo has dissolved, and Battier ages, fans have criticized the deal more and more as Gay has turned into a very good player, but after watching the Rockets beat the Grizzlies for the ninth straight time I believe the Rockets made the right move, and it’s a trade I’d do again and again. You can be a great team with Battier as your third or best player, you can’t with Rudy Gay as your best.

The Grizzlies won 49 games in the 05-06 season, and made the playoffs for the third straight season, the Rockets were 15 games worse. The next season, the first after the trade, Houston finished with 52 wins, 30 more than Memphis. The Rockets were 33 games better in ’07-’08 and 31 games better in ‘08-’09. The Rockets have finished with better records than Memphis in each of the last 4 seasons. Would that have been the case if the trade hadn’t been made?

Houston was in win-now mode that summer, and Battier was everything that they needed: a defender, who could knock down the three. Jeff Van Gundy couldn’t have genetically engineered a better fit for what he wanted to do. He was a winner who had won in college, and was a key part of the only good run the Grizzlies have ever had. Gay on the other hand was purely a scorer whose UConn team, littered with NBA prospects, was upset in the NCAA Tournament by George Mason. You couldn’t have had two players who were so different despite playing the same position.

Rudy Gay is incredibly talented, but he’s the type of guy who has to have the ball in his hands to be effective, and his actual value to a team will always be overrated because of the numbers he puts up. He’s the classic guy that gets overpaid, which the Grizzlies did this offseason when they gave him a max contract. Now they are saddled with him eating up a lot of their cap space, and once again, the Grizzlies are under .500, and it doesn’t look like they are going anywhere despite loads of talent. Why? Because their best player is Rudy Gay.

Would the Rockets be better off today with Rudy Gay? Maybe, but I guarantee you, without Shane Battier, the Rockets would not have competed in ’07, ’08, and ’09, and they don’t have Gay’s terrible contract on the books for the next 5 years.

Rockets come alive, dominate Lakers in fourth quarter

2010-12-02T02:47:00.000-06:00

All season long everyone has talked about how bad the Rockets have been in the fourth quarter. It’s the number one reason why the Rockets came into tonight’s game with a 5-12 record. They have not been able to finish games. That was not the case against the Lakers. Not only did they outplay the champs, they dominated them in the final 12 minutes.

The Rockets trailed by two entering the fourth. They ended it up 10. They outscored the Lakers 33-21, and the only reason the Lakers were able to muster 21 was because they hit all 10 free throws they threw up. Los Angeles was just 5-for-22 from the field (22.7%), and 1-for-10 from behind the three point arc.

Houston’s 33 fourth quarter points was their highest scoring 12 minutes of the game. They shot 60% from the field (9-for-15), and nailed all three treys they fired up. They also dished out seven assists. The great thing about it was that everyone contributed. Nine players logged at least three and a half minutes in the period, and the only player that was in for nine minutes or more was Jordan Hill of all people. He only had two points, but his defense against Pau Gasol was sensational.

I thought the Rockets were a playoff team before the season, and they certainly haven’t lived up to those expectations through 18 games, but there was something very encouraging about the final twelve minutes of tonight’s. Maybe the fourth quarter woes are over. If they are, the Rockets will be a headache for teams the rest of the season, and oh ya, Yao Ming and Aaron Brooks will be back within in the next two weeks.

Rockets bench collapses in loss to Bulls

2010-11-16T22:36:00.002-06:00

The Rockets played a great third quarter Tuesday night, outscoring the Bulls 30-14, to bring an eight-point lead into the fourth quarter. They followed that with a horrific five minute ten second stretch in which the Bulls went on an 18-0 run on their way to their first road victory of the season, sending the Rockets to 3-7 through 10 games. In total, Houston was outscored 32-21 in the fourth quarter, they were outscored 30-15 in the second. The bench was awful.

The Rockets were once again shorthanded. Of course Yao Ming and Aaron Brooks didn’t play, but they were also without Chase Budinger. Ish Smith turned it over twice in less than five minutes in the second, Courtney Lee had four in 12 minutes. Chuck Hayes wasn’t terrible, but there is a reason why the Rockets were badly out-rebounded in this game. The Rockets bench played just 38 minutes out of a possible 240, just barely under 16% of the game, but it did its damage in those limited minutes. The Rockets bench had a +/- of -51. The starters were +36.

When we started the season, most people figured the Rockets bench would be a strength, it is not right now. Obviously, when you are missing three rotation guys your bench isn’t going be great, but it might be time to give a few other guys a look. Tonight, Jermaine Taylor and Jared Jeffries didn’t play. Maybe its time to give them a shot, at least Taylor in place of Lee, who doesn’t appear to fit into this team.

I said after the first game of the year in Los Angeles that I wasn’t a big fan of Courtney Lee, and he hasn’t done anything to make me rethink that. A great athlete, and good defender, but at the offensive end its been the opposite, and the team has suffered because of it.

The Rockets will play the second game of a back-to-back in Oklahoma City, and with the minutes the starters had to play tonight, the bench will be more of a factor against the Thunder. I don’t think Durant and Co. will mind that one bit.

The Rockets Simple Problem: Finishing

2010-11-12T00:50:00.001-06:00

There were a lot of negatives in the Rockets latest loss Wednesday night in Washington. Yao got hurt early on and only played 6 minutes, John Wall’s first triple double, which included 6 steals, The Rockets getting outrebounded against the worst rebounding team in the NBA, and their inability to handle the lightning pace of the Wizards, but above all these issues last night the one that stands out, as it has through the first 7 games of the season has been the Rockets inability to finish games.

The Rockets are 1-6, the one win was a blowout against Minnesota. In all six losses, Houston has had a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter, but for one reason or another, they haven’t been able to get the job done at the end. One day its not being unable to get stops, the next its going on a drought at the offensive end.

One problem I see with the Rockets inability to finish games, is their inability to finish at the rim. One of the most frustrating aspects of Luis Scola’s game is how many layups he misses. He can’t finish at the rim, and late in games, plays are being run for him, and executed perfectly, except, he misses shots that you have to make. Its one thing to do that early, but when one your key guys at the offensive end can’t be relied upon to finish plays in crunch-time it makes life difficult and it explains a 1-6 team.

There is still a lot of season left to play, and this looks like it is still a talented team, but if you aren’t concerned about whether this team is in for a long season then you haven’t been paying attention. The problem is, if this team can’t get it together in the next few weeks, changes are going to need to be made, and I don’t mean small changes either.

Rockets impress in loss to Lakers

2010-10-27T02:52:00.001-05:00

There was a lot to like in the Rockets opening night loss in LA on Tuesday night. I don’t think its going out on a limb to say the Rockets were better. They shot it better (barely), out-rebounded the Lakers, and even had more blocked shots. The problem was that they turned the ball over 20 times, and that allowed the Lakers to get out in transition which allowed them to take a double digit deficit and turn it into an 8 point lead. The Rockets were able to comeback and take a lead late, but Steve Blake’s 3 gave LA the lead for good. Here are some of my thoughts on the Rockets 112-110 loss at Staples Center:

The Rockets were in an impossible situation on the last play of the game having to throw the ball in from the corner. You have to wonder if Yao hadn’t fouled it, could he have been brought back in that point. He could have just stood in the paint and tried to grab the inbounds and then flip it in, or he could have delivered the inbounds pass.

The original play that the Rockets ran after the Blake 3 was defended perfectly by LA. The Rockets were hoping the Lakers would help off the guys who were in the corner so Brooks could get them the ball to try a 3, but the Lakers stayed at home, and Brooks had nowhere to go. That’s the problem with Brooks, he’s just too small, and not a good enough finisher inside.

For it being the first game of the season, I thought the Rockets offense was very crisp in the first half. The passing was brilliant, and they shredded a great defensive team.

Brad Miller and Chase Budinger were great off the bench. Its going to be hard for Rick Adelman to keep Budinger on the bench.

The backcourt combo of Ish Smith and Courtney Lee was not good. Smith won’t be counted on much once Kyle Lowry gets back, but I was disappointed in Lee. He’s a great athlete, and he made some plays defensively, but he also forced up some bad shots.

Yao moved pretty well, and there was one spot early in the game when he got up and down on a fast break. I’m a little worried about him offensively right now because it doesn’t look like he has any rhythm, but it looks like he could be very good defensively, especially since fouls are really meaningless for him.

Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin combined for 50 points on 33 shots. When I said they could have the best backcourt in the league, I meant it.

Quick thought on the Lakers: When Andrew Bynum comes back, their top 4 off the bench of Steve Blake, Shannon Brown, Matt Barnes, and Lamar Odom could be the best in the league. Derek Fisher is the Lakers 4^th best guard.

Western Conference Preview

2010-10-26T17:48:00.002-05:00

The West is better than the East, but it is quite jumbled, without the distinct tiers that the East has. There is one clear-cut favorite in the Lakers, there are 10 other teams that I can see in the playoffs, and there are 4 teams who I think have no chance.

To illustrate how nobody has any clue what is going to happen in the West, check the predictions on ESPN.com. They have guys picking the Rockets to finish as high as 2 and 3 in the conference, and 11^th.

The Heavy Favorite

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers, like Boston, may not wind up with the best record in the conference, but when the playoffs start they will be the favorites. The Steve Blake and Matt Barnes pick ups were terrific, and are big upgrades, and I liked the Theo Ratliff signing, especially for the regular season. When Bynum is healthy they are a nightmare inside. With the additions they have made over the summer you can easily say that their personnel is better than last year, and the improved depth will help them in the regular season. The only thing stopping them could be health. I’d be very surprised if they weren’t in the Finals again.

The Playoff Contenders (In no particular order)

Oklahoma City Thunder

I know a lot of people want to say that they can challenge the Lakers, but I don’t see it, at least not yet. Kevin Durant could be the MVP, and Russell Westbrook could be an All-Star, and they have a ton of length, but they don’t have a lot of great shooters, and they have no low post scoring threats. They will be good defensively, and they will rebound better than they did, but they don’t have guys who can get them easy buckets inside. I think they will wind up as a top 4 seed.

Dallas Mavericks

Nobody is really talking about the Mavs after they flamed out in the first round last season, but they did finish with the second best record in the West, and now Caron Butler won’t have to fit in on the fly. They bring everyone back except for Erick Dampier who they replaced with Tyson Chandler. They have size, they have guys who can score points in bunches off the bench, but they are old. Almost all of their key guys are older than 30, and they will struggle against quick backcourts. Dallas does have a bunch of expiring contracts, so there is a good chance that they will look to make a major move, especially since Mark Cuban is not shy about spending, that could be their best hope for this season.

Portland Trailblazers

They were battered by injuries last season, and its amazing they were able to make the playoffs. Brandon Roy appears to be healthy, and they are big and athletic in the front court. Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla are back from injury, and they still have Marcus Camby, who despite being old is still very good. Oden could be the key. They don’t need to run plays for him, but he will be valuable as a shot blocker and rebounder. They are long and athletic at the 3 with Nic Batum and rookie Luc Babbit, but they aren’t good shooters, and teams won’t be afraid to help off them. The same can be said for Andre Miller. If Rudy Fernandez can have a bounce back year and hit open shots it will be a big boost, although if Roy’s knee can’t hold up it won’t matter.

San Antonio Spurs

They are old, but they do have some younger guys that should play heavy minutes. George Hill and Dajuan Blair played very well last season, and they should continue to be big contributors. James Anerson, who they drafted from Oklahoma State could give them quick offense off the bench. The big pick up for them could be Tiago Splitter who comes over from Europe. San Antonio may not be great in the regular season because of their age, but like Boston out East, they will be a pain to play against in the playoffs. Remember, they finished 7^th last season, and beat Dallas in the first round. Regardless of where they are seeded, if they are healthy going into the playoffs, nobody will want to play them.

Houston Rockets

They won 42 games last season without Yao Ming, and now they get their center back, although he will be limited. The Rockets will have Kevin Martin for the whole season, but he has to stay healthy, which has been a problem the last three seasons. He has always put up numbers as a go to guy, but it hasn’t translated into wins. Martin and Aaron Brooks could combine for the best back court in the West, and trading Trevor Ariza allows Shane Battier to slide back into his old role as the small forward who will guard opponents best players. They have a lot more depth in the front court with Yao back and the Brad Miller signing to go along with Luis Scola. They are deep and skilled, but not athletic. Jordan Hill could be a big key because he is really the only player who I would consider to be a finisher inside. They might be the deepest team in the league, but that may not be a good thing. I think they will look to make a major trade, which if they do, it could vault them into contender status.

Utah Jazz

They lost key guys Carlos Boozer, Wesley Matthews, and Kyle Korver, but they did steal Al Jefferson from Minnesota, and he could wind up being better than Boozer. If they can get Mehmet Okur back healthy it will make the very tough to stop, but I don’t think they are good enough offensively at the wings, it will be crucial that Gordon Hayward makes an impact as a rookie. They weren’t very good defensively last season, and I don’t think that will change, especially because Jefferson is a bad defender. Paul Millsaps is a good rebounder, but as we saw against the Lakers he is small and a bit of a liability. I think they could be very good, especially if Jefferson can get back to the level that he was at before the knee injury. A good start could be vital, otherwise you might start hearing Deron Williams ask for a trade.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns lost a lot in the offseason and didn’t really replace it. Without Amare Stoudemire they are almost exclusively a perimeter based team except for Robin Lopez. They added Hedo Turkoglu who is coming off a terrible season as well as Josh Childress who is back from Europe. They will tough to stop because of all their shooters, and they have a lot of guys who can handle the basketball. They will be bad defensively and they will also be a bad rebounding team. Teams will abuse them inside. You also have to be worried about their age. Goran Dragic showed that he can handle the load at point guard, which will take some of the pressure off Steve Nash but they are still an older team. I can see them making the playoffs, but they might have to sneak in.

Denver Nuggets

Lets assume for a minute that they hang onto Carmelo Anthony all season. I thought they were a threat out West last season until George Karl had to leave the team. He knew how to get all the crazy guys on that team to play together, and the vibe with that team turned very negative after he left. Karl is back now, and so does the entire team from last season. They will be able to score, and score in bunches, but they aren’t very good defensively and they don’t rebound real well either, which was why they lost to the Lakers in the West Finals back in 2009. There is a ton of uncertainty with this team because of Anthony, but if they can start strong it would keep Anthony in town for the season, but if November is a bad month it could start a purge that would drop Denver to the bottom of the conference, and set the franchise back years.

Memphis Grizzlies

They were a big surprise last season, and were in the playoff race for a long time. Even though they overpaid to do it, they did re-sign Rudy Gay and they picked up Tony Allen. If you takeaway the point guard position, their starting lineup is really good. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are excellent down low, and Gay and OJ Mayo are very good wing scorers. They don’t have a lot of depth, and they aren’t a good team on defense. They won’t sneak up teams this season, and I can see them dropping back a few games.

Los Angeles Clippers

Blake Griffin is healthy and has looked very good in the offseason. Eric Gordon is going into his third season, and had a great summer with Team USA. They should be the building blocks of what could wind up being a pretty good team. Along with Griffin and Gordon, they Chris Kaman and Baron Davis. Kaman can score and rebound, and if Davis is motivated he’s as dynamic a point guard as there is in the NBA. The Clippers also signed Ryan Gomes and Craig Smith, who are both solid NBA players, and they have depth behind the older Davis. The Clippers could surprise and make the playoffs, but they could also lose 60 games, I’m not sure there is an in between. Vinny Del Negro is the new head coach, and his team’s aren’t known for strong starts. That could be crucial; otherwise Davis might quickly become disinterested.

No Hope This Season

New Orleans Hornets

They were actually a little better than I thought they would be last season, especially with Chris Paul missing so much time. They really didn’t do anything in the offseason aside from hiring a new GM and a rookie head coach. They did add Trevor Ariza, who is coming off a disappointing season in Houston. Paul is elite, and David West is good, but the rest of the team is very average, and when Paul is out of the game they basically have no offense. Its also not a guarantee that Paul is there all season.

Golden State Warriors

The good news for the Warriors is that they now have a coach who will watch and care about the games. They also have a very good offensive team. Stephen Curry and David Lee will be a great 1-2 punch, and if they can get Monta Ellis to be a good teammate they will be a lot of fun to watch. They won’t play any defense, and they aren’t deep. First round pick Epke Udoh and Louis Amundson are already hurt. Andres Bierdrins was a non-factor last season, they need him because he could be their best defender down low. They could score 110 points a game, but they could also give up 120.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings have last season’s Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans, and a talented, but volatile rookie in DeMarcus Cousins. The only problem is that the rest of the team aside from Carl Landry doesn’t really fit well together, and it also isn’t very talented. They have some talent and athleticsm, but they lack shooting and defense. They won 25 games last season. They key will be to get over the 30-win mark.

Minnesota Timberwolves

When Kevin Love is your best player you know you are in for a long season. The one good thing about Minnesota is that they are very young, but I’m not sure if any of those young guys have a huge upside. They also have a few too many small forwards. The biggest issue I have with the Wolves is the way they just gave away Al Jefferson. That trade might be worse than the Pau Gasol trade. Good news for them is that they still hold the rights to Ricky Rubio, although they might be better off trading him.

Eastern Conference Preview

2010-10-26T02:46:00.002-05:00

What’s interesting about the East this season is that you can very easily come up with 4 very distinct tiers of teams: contenders, playoff locks, bottom seed contenders, and no hope teams. I think there are three contenders and three playoff locks. I think five teams will be in the hunt for the last 2 playoff spots, and there are four teams that are in for long seasons.

Contenders

Miami Heat- Whenever you have three of the best players on the planet you are going to have a chance to contend, and I think the Heat can win the East, but I don’t think they will. The biggest problems with Miami are that they have no depth and they are thin inside and will have problems with physical teams like Boston. They will be great in the regular season because they will be able to get out and run, but the game slows down in the playoffs. They will win a championship with James, Wade, and Bosh eventually, but I don’t think this is the year. Boston’s big three gelled quickly because they complimented each other perfectly, they played defense, and they had depth. I don’t think that is the case for this Heat team. I’m not sure they can defend inside, and the team around the Big 3 is weak.

Orlando Magic- They seem to be on a mission since losing to Boston in the East Finals. Dwight Howard appears to have improved after working with Hakeem Olajuwon over the summer, and Otis Smith basically kept the team intact, losing only Matt Barnes while picking up Quentin Richardson and Chris Duhon. Richardson fits well into their offense, and Duhon is a much-needed upgrade backing up Jameer Nelson. If Howard has in fact taken the next step, then watch out, but if he is the same player as last season the Magic may not get out of the second round. Orlando will be great defensively because of Howard, but they can also be average offensively because of him too, that’s why its so important that he command double teams. Rashard Lewis is a big key for them. He had a down season last year. They need him to get back to putting up over 17 points a game, not the 14 he averaged last season.

Boston Celtics- Right now they are my pick to win the East. They probably won’t be great in the regular season, because they are older, but don’t read anything into that. Danny Ainge did a great job of adding bigs in the offseason, and that will help them against Orlando and Miami. They might be the best defensive team in the NBA, although losing Tony Allen will hurt. They have reliable scorers like Pierce and Allen, but they can also bring Nate Robinson off the bench to give them a burst if they need it. We will write them off a few times during the regular season, but they are built for the playoffs, and this could be their last serious run.

Playoff Locks

Atlanta Hawks- They are basically the same team that won over 50 games last season, except they might have a coach they will listen to. They didn’t lose anyone except for Mike Woodson, and they brought in a few guys through the draft and free agency who can contribute off the bench. The big key for them will be to transition minutes away from Mike Bibby to Jeff Teague and/or Jordan Crawford. If Bibby is forced to play big minutes again this season it won’t be a good thing. They are athletic, and I hope new head coach Larry Drew is able to install the motion offense that he wants. They faded last year because Joe Johnson was asked to do too much. Atlanta has made the East Semis the last 2 seasons and could get there again this season, but they have also been swept each time. I can see that happening again if they are able to get back to that point.

Milwaukee Bucks

They were the surprise team of last season, and they actually spent some money in the offseason to get better. They are well coached, and have a healthy Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings in year two, where he will hopefully be more consistent. They were able to hold onto John Salmons who was their best scoring threat after they traded for him, and they picked up Corey Maggette who makes them more athletic. The Bucks also signed Keyon Dooling, Drew Gooden. They have depth, but they don’t shoot the 3 real well, and they will take a lot of them, especially Jennings. Bogut is the key, they need him on the floor, he will get them a double-double every night, and he is a defensive presence down low. It’s a miracle they were able to take Atlanta to a game 7 last year.

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls could wind up being the best of this second tier. They’ve been hurt the last two seasons by awful starts, but despite being seeded low, they have played well in the playoffs. They made a couple of big moves in the offseason, signing the former Utah trio of Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, and Ronnie Brewer. Those additions should make them a better offensive team, and the addition of new head coach Tom Thibodeau should improve them defensively. They could wind up being the most athletic team in the league, and the additions of Boozer and Korver should improve their half-court offense. If Derrick Rose takes the next step in year three they could be very dangerous. Big key for them will be health. Carlos Boozer is always hurt, while Deng and Noah have had their problems.

In the Playoff Mix

Charlotte Bobcats

Made the playoffs for the first time last season, but they lost a couple of key guys off that team, starting point guard Raymond Felton and center Tyson Chandler. They really didn’t replace either player. They are hoping former lottery pick D.J. Augustine is ready to step into Felton’s spot, in his third year in the league. Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace carried them last season, and will have to do the same this season. They re-signed Tyrus Thomas, who played great for them after they got him from Chicago, and he can be a nightmare because of his athleticism. With Larry Brown on the sidelines they are on the best coached teams in the league, and they will be very good defensively, but they will struggle to score points, especially on nights when Jackson isn’t shooting it well.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have been looking for a point guard for a long time, and they might have found him in Darren Collison, who was excellent when he filled in for Chris Paul last season. Indiana was a pretty good defensive team last season, and it looks like Roy Hibbert will turn into a pretty good center. Their best player is Danny Granger, who is a great scorer, but he’s had trouble staying on the floor recently. They need him healthy, and they need him to be a leader, especially with this team getting younger. In order to get Collison, they had to trade Troy Murphy who was solid for them last season. He was also their best rebounder, and that will leave a big hole for them. They need Tyler Hansborough to make an impact, which he didn’t do last year.

New York Knicks

The Knicks were able to give their fans hope with the signing of Amare Stoudemire, even though they weren’t able to land the big prize they had hoped for. The Stoudemire signing allowed them to get a pretty decent package for David Lee from the Warriors, headlined by Anthony Randolph who is very talent. They also upgraded at point guard by signing Raymond Felton. They are young and athletic, but I’m not sure if they have the offensive personnel to do what Mike D’Antoni wants to do, which is shoot threes. I would also be concerned with Stoudemire being away from Steve Nash. He will still put up numbers, but he won’t be as efficient. There aren’t a lot of players who improve after leaving Nash. They could win up trading for Carmelo Anthony, and that would vault them into the playoffs.

Washington Wizards

I put Washington in this tier because of John Wall who I really like, and with the addition of Kirk Hinrich, I like the Washington backcourt, especially if they can get something out of Gilbert Arenas, which if they can, they can finally trade him. The Wiz basically bought Yi Jianlian from New Jersey, and I think that could be a good move. He has talent, he just doesn’t know how to play. Javale McGee had a good season last year, and should continue to get better. I think they could wind up being a good defensive team, and Wall will give them fits. They have a shot to make the playoffs because the East isn’t very good at the bottom.

Philadelphia 76ers

I talked myself into the Sixers at the last minute even though their front court could be the worst in the conference, but their backcourt, could wind up being dynamic, and give a lot of teams matchup problems. Andre Iguodala, Jrue Holliday, Evan Turner, and Lou Williams can all get to the basket, and if they play small it will be tough for teams to match that quickness. The problem for Philly is that they need Elton Brand to be good again, and I don’t think that’s possible. The rest of their bigs are all perimeter guys, and they are soft.

Going to be a long season

New Jersey Nets

The Nets will obviously be better then the team that won 14 games a year ago. But I don’t see them being that much better. Their biggest addition was drafting Derek Favors #3 overall, and I think he will be good, but he is very raw. Eventually, Favors at the 4 and Brook Lopez at the 5 will be a great combo. Jersey also added Troy Murphy who will help them, plus his contract expires after the season. Devin Harris was never healthy last season, and if they can get him back at 100% they will be a much better offensive team, and that will make life easier for Lopez. The Avery Johnson hire was also a positve, and it should improve them defensively. They are on the right track, but they have a long way to go.

Detroit Pistons

Detroit has talent, but it is all vastly overpaid, and their 2 big signings last summer of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva completely flopped last season. The Pistons made two additions in the summer, drafting Greg Monroe, and signing Tracy McGrady. Monroe could be good, McGrady will not be. They actually have 3 starters from their championship team, Ben Wallace, Rip Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince, but the last 2 will likely be traded.

Toronto Raptors

They lost Chris Bosh for nothing and traded Hedo Turkoglu. They added Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza and Leandro Barbosa. They won 40 games last season, but I wouldn’t be shocked if that number was cut in half. The Raptors were a good offensive team last season, and they will be good in that area this season. They have shooters all over the place, and Andrea Bargnani is a matchup nightmare for other centers. DeMar DeRozen is also incredibly athletic. The problem for Toronto is that they are a horrific team defensively, and they can’t rebound either. Soft is putting it kindly. They might be fun to watch because of some of their offensive talent, but it won’t translate to wins.

Cleveland Cavaliers

I really wanted to put them in the 3^rd tier, but I couldn’t do it. The supporting cast around LeBron James wasn’t as bad as people said it was this summer. Antawn Jamison, Mo Williams, J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao are good players, but I think its going to take them a long time to figure out how to play without LeBron. I think they will be pretty good defensively, and they have size, but they are going to struggle to score points at times. I don’t think I will be the only person though who is rooting for them.

7 quick thoughts on the Rockets preseason opener

2010-10-05T22:58:00.003-05:00

The Rockets lost their preseason opener tonight against Orlando, and while it means nothing, it is the first look we've gotten at them in a game situation, so here are 7 quick thoughts I had on the game:

1. It was just good to see Yao on the floor again. The fact that he played and made it through his 12 minutes is a big positive. I liked that they brought him back in during the first period after he played the first six minutes. Its a good way to build his conditioning.

2. The Rockets are going to have to figure out a way to protect defensively. He didn't move well to begin with, but he really looked slow tonight. It will be worse when he has to guard centers who play outside the paint.

3. Love how Kevin Martin gets to the free throw line at will. I really think he, not Yao will be the Rockets key this season.

4. I thought it was interesting that Jordan Hill replaced Yao and played with the starters. That being said, he didn't look that great.

5. Courtney Lee looked great at the defensive end, not so great at the offensive end. I really like his athleticism.

6. Chase Budinger took 9 shots, and only one was a three. I think he becoming a better rounded offensive player, and using his athleticism by getting inside.

7. I liked Kyle Lowry's aggressiveness running the point.

Twitter updated from Texans/Colts

2010-09-12T10:45:00.002-05:00

I'll be tweeting from Texans/Colts today. Go to www.twitter.com/adamspolane. Follow along. I'll have postgame reaction from both teams and my thoughts on the blog later this afternoon.

NFL Head Coaches on the Hot Seat

2010-09-12T09:54:00.002-05:00

We are just hours away from the start of the NFL season, and I thought I'd take a look at coaches who are feeling a little pressure, and likely need good seasons in order to hang onto their jobs.

Gary Kubiak (HOU)- Its year 5 for him, and he has yet to make the playoffs. His team's have shown progress in his four season, but it isn't a lot of progress, and they have made the same mistakes year after year. He definately needs to make the playoffs, and that might not be enough. A bad start and he could be fired.

Jack Del Rio (JAX)- I didn't think he'd make it through 2009, but the Jags were better than expected and were in the playoff race for most of the year. He's been there a long time and had a good run, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them want to go in a different direction, especially if they don't improve on last season's 7 wins.

Eric Mangini (CLE)- Finished strong to keep his job last season, but the guy running the show still didn't hire him, and if things go bad, Mike Holmgrem will look to make him the scapegoat.

Tom Cable (OAK)- Its the Raiders, every coach is on the hot seat every day, although they could've fired him last season, and they smartly held onto him.

Wade Phillips (DAL)- He has an enormous amount of pressure on him, like he always does. Jerry Jones has stuck by him, but you have to think, if the Cowboys don't at least match their one playoff win from last season he doesn't stand a chance to be back in 2011.

Lovie Smith (CHI)- Still living off his Super Bowl run in '06, the Bears haven't made the playoffs since, and it has gotten worse year after year. The fans don't like him, and wanted him fired after last season. They spent some money in the offseason, and have expectations even though the team doesn't look good. If this season is similar to last, they will look to clean house in Chicago.

John Fox (CAR)- He's in the last year of his contract, and he makes a lot of money. Fox is one of the best coaches in the league, but he'll likely be gone regardless of his this season goes. It won't take long for him to find work.

Raheem Morris (TB)- I don't think the Bucs are real committed to him, and he likely needs a big year to show that he belongs as an NFL head coach.

Kyle Lowry's contract foreshadows the end of Aaron Brooks as a Rocket

2010-08-26T19:25:00.001-05:00

When the Rockets matched the Cavs offer sheet for Kyle Lowry last month, it was seen as a surprise, and met with criticism. Why would you give a backup point guard 4 years and $24 million when your starter is better and the same age? The answer seems pretty simple now.

The starter is available, and the team would like to trade him before his contract runs out after this season.

Aaron Brooks had a terrific season for the Rockets last season in his first full season as a starting point guard in the NBA, but his contract is up after this season, and because of the numbers that he has put been putting up (close to 20 points per game) he will probably be looking for a big contract. While he is a very productive and talented player, I don’t think the Rockets will want to give him the sort of contract because I’m not sure they think he is a true point guard who can run a team. He can definitely score, but that doesn’t make you a point guard. Lowry is that sort of player, so matching the Cavs offer gives the Rockets some insurance if they don’t re-sign Brooks. It also gives the Rockets insurance if they were to trade Brooks.

That brings us to Carmelo Anthony.

Anthony wants out. He’s made that pretty clear to the Nuggets, and they are beginning to understand that they need to make it happen; otherwise they will be next summer’s version of the Cavs. A package headlined by Brooks could very well be good enough to get the job done for the Rockets, who also own assets from the Jared Jeffries trade last February. The Rockets also have expiring contracts to take on Denver salary dumps as they would look to rebuild a year early instead of a year late like Cleveland.

The Rockets have known that Brooks would be a very attractive trade piece at some point, so it only made sense that the Rockets hang on to his very capable backup regardless of the cost because if the Rockets let Lowry go to Cleveland it means they really can’t trade Brooks. Now they can trade Brooks and make the sort of splash they tried to make last month when they went after Chris Bosh.

LeBron sacrifices his legacy; ESPN sacrifices its dignity; Cleveland just sacrificed

2010-07-09T11:10:00.004-05:00

Before I get to LeBron, I want to talk about ESPN. I didn’t get to see the LeBron infomercial because I was working, but I was following along on Twitter, and I have read a lot reaction to it, and I have yet to read anything positive about it or the people involved. How ESPN could journalistically allow this to go down the way it did blows my mind. No person, much less an athlete should ever be allowed to hijack a television network the LeBron did Wednesday night. I’m sure ESPN made a lot of money off that hour, and I have no problem with that, but at what cost? I can’t imagine the NBA was happy about this because it elevated James to a point where he came off as bigger than the sport, which he is not, even if he thinks he is. ESPN is riding a fine line right now, and I just pray that something like this will ever happen again. This was a bad day for David Stern. He allowed LeBron James and ESPN to make a mockery of the NBA.

Now onto LeBron. As bad an idea as it was for ESPN to air the one hour informercial, it was an even worse idea for LeBron’s people to approach ESPN with the thought. I have no problem with LeBron James leaving the Cavaliers, but the manner in which he did it was disgraceful.

First of all that city has been as loyal to him as anyplace I have ever seen, and its been that way since the Cavs won the right to draft him. It has been an unconditional love fest. He has probably been treated better than any player in the history of sports by his team’s fans, and to leave the way he did, by stringing people along, and forcing them to watch his official decision on live national television is cruel. Was it really necessary to put his hometown through that sort of national humiliation? Cleveland has been the butt of many jokes for a long time, and one of its own just added to it. He is the new Art Modell of Cleveland, but its not just the fans that have been done wrong, its also the Cavs organization.

For the five years that Dan Gilbert has owned the Cavs, they have done everything possible to keep LeBron happy for fear of losing him. He has practically run the franchise. The team has hired his friends, they have worn the jerseys he’s wanted them to wear, and they have spent all sorts of money, all with the idea of keeping him happy. Up until he announced he was leaving they have been incredibly loyal to him, so would it have killed him to personally call owner Dan Gilbert to tell him he was leaving? That is one question I would love to hear an answer to. The Cavs were notified by one of LeBron’s guys as the infomercial was starting along with the other team’s he met with. The Cavs should have been afforded more respect that that.

My favorite part of the night came from Gilbert who ripped James in a letter to Cavalier fans, and later in an interview with the AP. I don’t remember an owner ever going to the lengths that Gilbert to denounce a former player. I’m not sure if it was the right thing to do, but he had to do it. I think he had to do it to rally his team’s fans, and also to rally his team. Don’t get me wrong though, he’s not just doing this for show. He is genuinely pissed off. He always knew the value of the team was going to hinge on LeBron staying, so he took the approach of letting LeBron do what he wanted, and he still left. I can’t wait to hear what else he has to say in the coming days, and I can’t wait to hear how James responds, if he does.

In the end, I respect the sacrifice LeBron made to win, but I also believe that he will in turn cost himself any shot of having a Kobe/Jordan type legacy, but maybe he isn’t that type of player, and its possible that he knows that already. He’ll likely never win a championship as the clear-cut #1 guy, but he hadn’t in seven years, so maybe he didn’t think he ever would. The problem is, he has now put himself in a position where he has to win, and each year he doesn’t the pressure will mount more and more. In all likelihood Dwayne Wade will get more credit if the Heat do win a title, but if they don’t LeBron will get all of the blame.

What's wrong with Kevin Durant?

2010-07-08T19:04:00.001-05:00

Above is the tweet that Kevin Durant sent out, letting the world know that he was indeed staying in Oklahoma City, signing an extension before he became a free agent after next season. There was no build up, no press conference, no public meetings, no hour-long TV special. In that tweet, I think we learned why regardless of whom they play for and whom they play with Kevin Durant will go down as a better basketball player and winner than LeBron James ever will.

Durant could’ve done what James did, just play out his contract and go into free agency. He could have done this with the full intentions of re-signing with the Thunder, but think of all the attention Durant would’ve gotten. That’s the great thing about him. He doesn’t need the extra attention. He’s content with being one of the best basketball players in the world. He doesn’t need all the other stuff some that seems to drive James more than anything else.

The fact that a lot of the team’s that met with LeBron last week talked about how they could make him a billionaire speaks volumes about his priorities and mindset. The funny thing about about this process is hearing Brian Windhorst from the Cleveland Plain Dealer talk about the way to win LeBron over. Don’t let the meetings go to long. The fact that most of the Cavs presentation involved Family Guy, Gladiator, and inside jokes makes me think that LeBron isn’t the most mature soon to be billionaire. I mean, the guy was wearing T-shirts and shorts to these meetings. I mean, I’m all for being casual, but would it have killed him to throw on a collared shirt while talking about a contract worth a hundred million dollars? Read what Adrian Wojanarowski of Yahoo! Sports has written about LeBron since the Cavs were bounced by Boston. It shines an interesting light on not only LeBron’s maturity, but the people around him as well.

LeBron James is the most physically gifted basketball player I have ever seen, but more and more I get the feeling that he is will never take that next step. It could be that the high mark of his career came when he was 22, leading the Cavs to finals. If that’s the case, he has nobody to blame but himself. Not Danny Ferry, not Mike Brown, not Mo Williams. It will all be on the Chosen One.

Can Chris Bosh be the centerpiece of an NBA Championship team?

2010-06-21T00:52:00.002-05:00

Of the major free agents that will be available in less than ten days, the one player that at this stage is more than likely to leave his current team is Chris Bosh. I don’t think the Raptors expect for him to return, and really, the only question will be does he go somewhere as a #2 or to be the #1. If it’s the latter, the question will then shift to “is he actually a #1?”

A lot of the talk centered on Bosh is that he would follow either Dwayne Wade or Lebron James, and be their version of Pau Gasol. He might also join Pau Gasol with the Lakers in a sign and trade for Andrew Bynum. I’m not sure the last scenario would work because I’m not sure if Bosh would make a good compliment, but I wouldn’t put it past the Lakers to try it, they aren’t opposed to breaking up a championship team.

If I were Bosh, I would follow Lebron to the Knicks or Wade to the Heat. He would be teamed with an elite player, and likely be put in a position to be on a contending team for a long time, much like Gasol is with the Lakers. Plus he won’t have the pressure of being the #1 guy. Bosh has lived in near anonymity since coming into the league, so being thrust into the position of being THE guy on a team where people care might not be an easy transition, and there have been rumors that Bosh preferred to be the #2 on a really good team instead of being the #1 on a mediocre team like he is now. However, it appears those rumors were not true.

"I'm not an addition. I'm a centerpiece."

That is what Bosh said to Art Garcia of NBA.com, which now makes me think that he will choose to go on his own, as opposed to following James or Wade this summer. This isn’t a big surprise. He has an ego, and if he were to win a championship he wants to be the first player interviewed, not the second, but there is a question that needs to be asked: Can Chris Bosh be the centerpiece of a championship team? I don’t think he can be. All you have to do is look at his career in Toronto to figure that out.

Bosh has been in the league for 7 seasons. He has made the playoffs twice. He hasn’t won a playoff series, he really has never even come close either. In ’07 he lost to the Nets in 6 games, despite having home court advantage, then the next season Orlando beat him in 5. With Bosh as its best player the last 7 years, not only did the Raptors not win a playoff series, but 5 times they missed the playoffs entirely. Lets compare those 7 seasons to the 3 other stars that were taken in that draft (James, Wade, and Carmelo Anthony).

Anthony has never missed the playoffs. Wade missed once, and that was when he barely played in the ’07-’08 season, but he has won a championship, and James has made the playoffs the last 5 seasons, so of the four, which doesn’t belong? I don’t want to hear about his team not being good either because the Raptors have had talent, especially the last few years, and you can’t tell me that Wade’s teams that last 2 years have had more talent than Toronto, and somehow they have made the playoff comfortably each of the last two seasons.

Bosh has been the clear-cut centerpiece in Toronto for 7 years, and the Raptors have underachieved, so what makes anyone think that won’t happen if he moves on and becomes the clear-cut centerpiece for a Lebron-less Knicks team or the Nets? Following Lebron or Wade would be the best move for Bosh, but if his ego won’t allow for that to happen he should go to someplace like Chicago or Houston where the drop-off between him and the #2 won’t be as big.

A look back at the 1995 Houston Rockets

2010-06-14T18:22:00.001-05:00

15 years ago today the Rockets completed the toughest and most unlikely championship runs in the history of the NBA with a sweep of the Magic in the NBA Finals. They finished the regular season 47-35, and that was after starting 9-0. They went just 21-20 during the second half of the season. It was a team that dealt with a great deal of turmoil, especially in the middle of the season when Vernon Maxwell was suspended for 10 games when he attacked a fan in Portland. That resulted in the Clyde Drexler trade, which that was incredibly unpopular in the Rockets locker room. In acquiring Drexler, the Rockets were forced to give up Otis Thorpe, and had people wondering how and if Maxwell would fit in.

The Rockets won all 4 series without homecourt advantage beating Utah (60-22), Phoenix (59-23), San Antonio (62-20), and Orlando (57-25). In the first 2 rounds, they faced 5 elimination games, 3 of them coming on the road. Of their 15-playoff wins, 9 came on the road. The Rockets went 9-3 on the road, including winning their last 7 road games, while going just 6-4 at the Summit.

Adversity for the ’95 Rockets wasn’t just limited to the regular season; they had to deal with their fair share in the playoffs as well. Today, teams carry 15 players on a roster, and they dress 12. Who dresses and who doesn’t can change on a game-by-game basis. That wasn’t the case back in 1995. Before the playoffs started you announced a 12-man roster, and that was it. You couldn’t make changes no matter the situation. The Rockets wound up with a 10-man roster. Even though missed the last 21 games of the regular, and wouldn’t be able to play at the start of the playoffs, they put key reserve Carl Herrera on the playoff roster. He was finally able to play in game 4 of the Utah series, but was only able to go 6 minutes before dislocating his shoulder for the third time in a year, thus ending his postseason.

Unfortunately Herrera was the second player the Rockets lost in the Jazz series. After playing 16 bad minutes in game 1 at the Delta Center, Maxwell left them team, and that was the end of his Rockets career. The season was a nightmare for him, starting with the death of his infant daughter, which led to the incident in Portland. He then lost his job once Drexler joined the team, and then he came down with anemia, so he was never able to integrate himself into the Drexler led backcourt, and while losing Maxwell hurt the team, it was probably best that he left. He wasn’t happy, and he was letting that affect the team.

With the Drexler trade, and the losses of Maxwell and Herrera, the Rockets were without 2 starters and a key reserve from the 1994 championship team. Its hard enough to make that sort of adjustment when you have a whole season and training camp, so just think about how difficult it was making those major changes more than halfway into the season and in the playoffs.

Speaking of change, after the Rockets gave back a 2-0 lead against the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals (they won the first 2 in San Antonio, then lost the next two in Houston) Rudy Tomjanovich changed his starting lineup. He moved Robert Horry to power forward, and inserted Mario Elie into the 3 spot. The Rockets won the next 6 games, which won them the championship. Its not often that a coach changes his starting lineup that deep into the playoffs, and when they do, rarely does it actually work.

As for individual performances, it starts and ends with Hakeem Olajuwon, who had as great a postseason as anyone has ever had. He put up 33 points a game, while having to play against greats like Malone, Barkley, Robinson, and Shaq. He dominated them all, especially the last two. He also played over 42 minutes a game, which is amazing for a big man, but actually down from the 1994 run. He went for 40 points 5 times in 22 games, and was held under 30 just 6 times. He vaulted himself way ahead of the other great centers of that era.

Even though the 1995 Rockets won’t go down as one of the great teams we’ve seen in NBA history, the playoff run that ended 15 years ago today deserves to be talked about as one of the great runs is the history of the league because of how difficult it was, and how brilliantly they played over that 22 game stretch.

A move west for Texas is not the best move

2010-06-11T11:06:00.002-05:00

If you believe most of the reports, and I am inclined to do so, it appears that this time next week Texas will be apart of the Pac 10, or whatever they decide to call it. I don’t see how this is a good move for Texas. While I certainly believe that Texas has to go somewhere, I just don’t think the Pac 10 is the best choice. Its not just geography or money, it’s the fact that I don’t think the Pac 10 is that great a conference, especially when you consider that Texas could go to the Big Ten or SEC.

You can easily make the argument that the Pac 10 is behind both the Big Ten and SEC, a lot of that is because the Pac 10 gets less exposure. Remember, the Pac 10 is on the west coast, so most of its games are played late at night everywhere else in the country. Also, the Pac 10’s major television partner is FSN, not exactly a powerful outlet. The Pac 10 has a lot of conference games that aren’t even televised, and that with just 10 teams. Every Big 10 football and basketball game is televised to almost every household because of its contract with ESPN, CBS, and of course, the Big Ten Network.

Basketball is even worse. The Pac 10 has most of its games on FSN, and very few anywhere else. The Pac 10 tournament is practically an afterthought. Its played at an empty, lifeless Staples Center, and all the games are played on FSN until the Championship.

I’m sure that some of these things will improve in the coming years, but will that lift the Pac 10 above the Big 10? I doubt it, especially if the Big 10 is able too add the schools that it wants. The Big 10 will still be in more major markets, in television friendly time zones. You can talk about the Big 10 being a bad match for Texas geographically, but isn’t the Pac 10 even worse?

Texas has to make a move, but I just don’t see the Pac 10 as the best option.

**********UPDATE***********

Darren Rovell of CNBC says that the TV money might not be there for a Pac 16, at least the sort of money that these schools are expecting.

Rex "Nolan" Ryan

2010-06-11T02:24:00.002-05:00

Rex Ryan threw out the first pitch at the Mets/Padres game Wednesday night wearing an old Mets Nolan Ryan jersey, and as to be expected, he made it quite entertaining.

Here is Ryan talking with Kevin Burkhardt of SNY during the game

Here is the link to Ryan's press conference yesterday, where he broke down his mechanics for over 4 laugh out loud minutes. Unfortunately, I could only find the video on the Jets website, and they don't allow people to embed their videos, but its certainly worth watching.

Who should be the 2004 National Champ?

2010-06-11T01:49:00.002-05:00

Among the penalties levied against USC by the NCAA is that the Trojans must vacate all wins from the 2004 and 2005 seasons. Of Course the Trojans won its second straight National Championship in 2004, and lost the Championship Game to Texas in 2005. If all of its wins in 2004 are to be vacated then what happens to that National Championship?

Bill Hancock, who is the chairman of the BCS says that the BCS Presidential Oversight Committee will decide on whether or not to strip USC of the '04 championship, but if that is done, then there simply won't be a BCS Champion for 2004. That makes sense because the BCS Champion is decided on the field, however, there is the Associated Press, which votes on its National Champion, and is free to ignore what happens in the BCS, as it did in 2003, when It awarded a clean USC team the National Championship when LSU won the BCS Championship.

This year, the AP has already set a precedent of having a re-vote when it did that with the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award, so why wouldn't they re-vote its 2004 National Champion? Lets be honest, people in the media like to make news, and like to make statements, and this would be huge news, and it would make a big statement.

So if the AP were to have a re-vote, who should come out #1? There are 2 choices: Auburn and Oklahoma. Remember, at the end of the regular season there were three undefeated teams, and Auburn got left out. Oklahoma was clobbered by USC, and Auburn beat Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl to remain undefeated, but since the OU loss technically doesn't count, what do you do? I think the best solution is to have Auburn and Oklahoma split the championship, but how would a championship voted on over 5 years after the fact be viewed? Its a very strange and unfortunate situation, but I think one thing is for certain- USC will be stripped of its 2004 championship.

One other interesting note on this- Texas Tech head coach Tommy Tuberville, who was the coach at Auburn in 2004, has not surprisingly said that his team should be declared the 2004 champs. What's interesting about this is that in his Auburn contract, Tuberville was to receive a a $300,000 bonus for winning a national championship, and I'm quite positive that Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops has a similar clause in his contract. If one or both schools is delcared the national champion, do those coaches cash in on those bonuses?

Pete Carroll's response

2010-06-10T18:51:00.002-05:00

Pete Carroll issued a video statement reacting to the sanctions levied by the NCAA against USC.

I have no idea how much to blame Carroll is, but personally, I think putting out a video statement looks a little cowardly. Go on Sportscenter and answer some questions. Its hard for me to believe that he actually thought USC was innocent of all these charges considering he finally bolted for the NFL when better jobs have been out there for him in the past.

I still like LA in 7

2010-06-08T17:03:00.002-05:00

For the first time this postseason the Lakers do not have homecourt advantage. They haven't been great on the road in their first 3 series, but they have stepped up in big spots, winning game sixes in Oklahoma City and Phoenix. The Lakers could not win in Boston in 2008, but I think they will be able to get at least a game their this series, and I wouldn't be shocked if they won twice.

Nothing that occured in the first 2 games of this series makes me think Boston will be able to sweep the 3 home games, while they haven't played their best in games 1 and 2, neither have the Lakers. I think the biggest thing to come out of the first 2 games is how bad Kevin Garnett has been. He might be playing worse than Jermaine O'Neal did in the first round. KG has got to play better because the Celts can't count on Ray Allen making 8 threes in 3 more games. Unfortunately for Boston, I'm not sure if he has anything left.

Tim Donaghy grades the officials

2010-06-05T15:41:00.002-05:00

One of the biggest story-lines of the NBA Finals will be the officiating, and who better to analyze the officials than a disgraced former NBA ref who spent time in the can for betting on games that he called.

That is what is happening on Deadspin, as former NBA Official Tim Donaghy breaks down the calls from the NBA Finals.

They have highlights of each play that he mentions. Its actually very interesting, and while Donaghy may not be the most credible source in the world I do believe that he should be taken seriously, and the analysis I think it very good. If you have heard any of his interviews on the Dan Lebatard Show you know what I am talking about.

Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated goes a little deeper into the men who have officiated and likely will officiate the rest of the NBA Finals, as he gets critiques from NBA coaches.

NBA Finals preview

2010-06-03T17:02:00.003-05:00

Lakers/Celtics. It’s a battle of the 2 greatest franchises in NBA history. It’s the greatest rivalry in the NBA, and they are meeting in the NBA Finals, the league’s biggest stage for the second time in three years. If you didn’t think it was possible to hype up a series more than the 2008 Finals, then you were obviously wrong, but this series deserves the hype.

The ’08 series wasn’t an all-time great series, but it was very good, and it had some classic moments, most notably the Celtics comeback in game 4, but its important to note that Sasha Vujacic and Eddie House were on the floor in the crucial final moments of that series, that won’t be the case this time around, which already makes this series better than the last.

You can say quite confidently that these teams are better than the teams in 2008 (LA definitely is), and these teams were just recently thrown together. They have played together for a long time, the lone exception being Rasheed Wallace and Ron Artest, who are roleplayers in this series. These teams know each other, and they don’t like each other.

What is great about this series is that all of the key players that will be on the floor have won rings, except for Ron Artest. This is a legacy series. The Pierce/Garnett/Allen trio can get their second rings and separate themselves from a lot of their equals, while Kobe Bryant can take a step closer to the greatest of all time.

With that being said, I think the player with the most on the line however will be Pau Gasol. He was pushed around by the Celtics 2 years ago, and the loss was seen as more of an indictment on him than it was on anyone else. Those “soft” tags went away last season, but he knows they will be back if the same Celtics front court, which believes owns him, is able to push him around again.

For the Celtics, this series will be about Rajon Rondo. I know he’s got a ring, but now he’s the guy. 2 years ago in the critical game 4 comeback, Rondo wasn’t on the floor. He got the same treatment Tony Parker got in the 2003 Finals when he was benched in favor of Speedy Claxton. Parker came back and won championships in 2005 and 07, winning the MVP in 07, can Rondo do the same when the pressure is squarely on him.

I really believe that this series is as evenly matched a series we’ve seen in a long time. I know that people want to point to the point guard spot a big advantage for Boston, but with as good as Derek Fisher has been the last 2 rounds, I am not ready to declare that the reason why the Celtics will win the series. In all honesty you might even say in the last 5 minutes of these games the Lakers will have the PG edge.

A key matchup will be the Kobe/Ray Allen matchup. For the first time all postseason Kobe will have the play defense all 48 minutes, and it won’t just be stopping a guy 1-on-1, its going to be chasing Ray Allen all over the floor while running through vicious screens being set by the Boston bigs. How much will that take out of Kobe over a long series? Its not like Ron Artest can run with Allen either, if Kobe isn’t going to chase after him, it will have to be Vujacic, Shannon Brown or Jordan Farmar.

The issue for the Lakers is that Boston will be the best defensive team they have seen in these playoffs, and the size advantage that they have had against OK City, Utah, and Phoenix is gone, in fact, the Celtics have the edge inside, and more depth there as well.

The biggest issue for Boston will be stopping Kobe Bryant. He is playing at such a high level right now I don’t see how they do it. I wouldn’t want to put Paul Pierce on him because between checking Kobe and banging with Artest, I don’t see Pierce lasting 6 or 7 games. I also see Boston having trouble scoring at times when Allen’s shot isn’t dropping especially with Pierce being played by Artest. Another problem for Boston will be Kendrick Perkins and his technical fouls. One more T, and he’s suspended for a game. Doc Rivers even said, its not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. That would be an enormous loss for Boston, and might be enough to swing a game, which could swing the series.

Unlike the ’08 Finals, the Lakers have homecourt, where they have been dominant this post season, having won all 8 home games. They have lost just 3 home playoff games at Staples Center the last 3 years. Boston is 5-3 on the road this postseason, but I believe they will have to win 2 games in LA because its very difficult to win games 3, 4, and 5 at home. Remember its only happened twice in 25 years (’04 Pistons, ’06 Heat).

I have picked against the Celtics before all three of their series. Fortunately after the first 2 games of each series I realized my mistake and switched my predictions, not only picking the Celtics in all 3 series, but getting the games right as well. I might be in the same situation with this pick as well.

PREDICTION: Lakers in 7

An amazing streak comes to an end

2010-06-02T15:22:00.002-05:00

In the 3rd round of the 2004 French Open Roger Federer was upset by Gustavo Kuerten. There have been 23 grand slam tournaments played since that one coming into this French Open. Federer bounced back from that loss by winning 14 of the next 23 grand slams. Of the 9 he didn't win, 6 losses came in the final, and the other 3 came in the semis. So yesterday, a streak of 23 straight grand slam semifinal appearances came to an end.

Its a streak that will never be fully appreciated, but it could very well be the most impressive streak of our generation. He had won at least 5 matches in the last 23 grand slams. The difficulty of that cannot be described. These tournaments are played on different surfaces and once you get into the second week are quite grueling. Its rare that a player is even able to play in 23 straight grand slams, much less advance far into all of them. Its a level of greatness and consistency that we have never seen before, and will likely never see again.

Quick edit on my Western Conference Final pick

2010-05-23T19:00:00.002-05:00

Before the series I said the Lakers would win in 7, I now think they will win in 5. They are playing at too high of a level right now, and Phoenix has no chance to get stops. The big problem for the Suns has been their bench vs the Lakers bench, also Amare Stoudemire has been very average. I do think that Phoenix will win a game at home, and for the sake of the league I hope its game 3, so we can have at least one somewhat competitive series. Channing Frye has been bad in games 1 and 2, but he's played much better at home during the playoffs, and I think that will continue.

Reviewing my Eastern Conference Final prediction

2010-05-21T14:24:00.003-05:00

Before the series, I picked the Magic in 6 games. It looks like I'll be wrong. There are certain aspects of this series that I didn't anticipate. The first is how poor Orlando has defended. They have done a bad job stopping dribble penetration, especially Paul Pierce. I also didn't anticipate the Magic doing a poor job on the defensive boards. I should've anticipated this, especially since Rashard Lewis is Orlando's power forward, and I don't even think he tries to rebound. Speaking of Lewis, He is Orlando's highest paid player, and will have 3 years $64 million left on his contract.

I also didn't realize how good Boston is at defending the post. Kendrick Perkins and Rasheed Wallace are making Dwight Howard look like a guy who hasn't progressed the last 3 years. The fact is that Howard has gotten a lot better in the last year, but the Celtics have exposed his biggest weakness- he can't play with his back to the basket. The great centers would destroy teams that didn't double them with a wide array of low post moves, or with brute strength. Howard doesn't have either right now, so whenever he gets the ball on the block, he faces up whoever is guarding him, and he tries to use his athleticism to get the the basket. Perkins and Wallace are too good to allow Howard to do this.

In all honesty, Howard, and the Magic are better when teams double because Howard does a great job of passing out of the double (one big area of improvement) and that sets up the Magic's 3-point game because they are so good at moving the ball around the perimeter. Orlando's offense has come to a stand still, and Howard isn't efficient enough offensively right now. Mark Jackson has said that Orlando can't win with Howard getting the ball in the low post every time down.

That being said, I think Orlando can still win the series, but Stan Van Gundy has got to be creative with matchups, something is is very good at doing. Orlando needs to get back to unconventional basketball. They have to win game 3, if they can do that, they will only need to split the next 2 games in Boston in order to get to game 7, but that assumes they can win their home games. It isn't impossible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Prediction before the series: Magic in 6

Prediction after 2 games: Celtics in 6

Richard Justice vs David Anderson

2010-05-20T22:58:00.002-05:00

Ricahrd Justice is the lead sports columnist for the Houston Chronicle, and probably the most influential member of the Houston sports media (Yes even more influential than me, but that's only because I don't live in Houston the whole year, at least thats what I'm telling myself.). David Anderson is a fringe wide receiver for the Texans who has caught 70 passes in 4 seasons, and is more known for his Ron Jaworski impression than his actual ability. Apparently, they don't like each other, and it came to a head earlier this week.

I don't know the entire back story, but here is what I do know: David Anderson and many of the Texans players do not like Richard Justice because he criticizes them a lot. I know what you are thinking: How does Richard Justice have the gall to criticize a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 8 years? I know, its beyond belief. Anyways, Justice was making one of his usual appearances on 1560 the Game, and I guess it compelled Anderson to drive the station and confront Justice. Here are highlights of what ensued:

You can listen to the 3 segments they did together in their entirety. It is important to note that I have not done that.

The last person who should be telling Richard Justice how to do his job is David Anderson, just like Justice is the last person to tell Anderson how to be a better receiver. Like RJ says, its not his job to be liked, especially as a columnist. The only job in the media where its important to have a solid relationship with players is the beat reporter because they spend almost everyday in season with the team. A columnist doesn't do that.

The Houston media is very soft. The only way you are going to get heat in this town is if you are really bad or overpaid, which is why the Astros are covered negatively. In all honesty, the Texans have it real easy, especially for a team that has accomplished nothing in 8 years.

The NBA's big scheduling mistake

2010-05-19T10:49:00.002-05:00

After the Lakers and Suns play game 2 of the Western Conference Finals tonight, the NBA playoffs will take a couple of days off and return Saturday night for game 3 of the Celtics/Magic series on ABC, and then Sunday night will be game 3 of the West Finals on TNT which will go up against the Lost series finale. This is where the NBA screwed up.

Its never wise to go up against a major TV event, and that is what the league is doing, and it easily could be avoided.

All the NBA had to do was flip-flop the series. The Lakers and Suns should play Saturday night on TNT, that would allow the Celtics/Magic series to resume Sunday, and like they did this past Sunday, they could play during the afternoon. Under that scenario, the Lost finale buries nothing, that’s good for the NBA, good for the NBA’s television partners.

The Lost finale is the biggest finale since the final episode of the Sopranos. Why would the league want to try and go up against that? I know we are in a DVR world, but it’s a long episode, and some people might not be able to watch the game, then stay up another 2 hours. Its not like they had the schedule locked before it was announced when ABC aired the finale. It’s a poor job of planning by the NBA, and now one of its biggest games of the year will be buried.

Preview: #1 LA Lakers vs #3 Phoenix

2010-05-17T19:25:00.002-05:00

This is a fascinating matchup because of how different the teams are. The Lakers are a half court team that win with a big time scorer and a lot of size inside. Phoenix is much more balanced, and deeper, and their bigs pose a lot of different matchup problems. The problem that Phoenix has is that the Lakers can play small and matchup with Phoenix because of Lamar Odom, and with Andrew Bynum hurt, Odom will likely play more minutes than him. However, when Bynum does play, it will be difficult for Phoenix to rebound. Utah struggled on the boards, and they are a much better rebounding team than the Suns.

I think this series will be close because Phoenix has so many scoring options, and the Lakers really only have 2 reliable options, and one (Kobe) isn't healthy. I think the Lakers will win because of the rebounding edge they have. The key for Phoenix will be Amare Stoudemire on the defensive glass. He has got to come up big for the Suns.

Prediction: Lakers in 7

Preview: #2 Orlando vs #4 Boston

2010-05-16T13:50:00.002-05:00

First things first about this series: Ignore the 7-game series from last season. I keep hearing people say that Boston pushed Orlando to 7 games without Kevin Garnett. That couldn't be more meaningless. Lets not forget that the Magic was without Jameer Nelson, but it doesn't matter because both teams are quite different than they were a year ago, especially the Magic.

Orlando is a great defensive team, and a lot of that has to do with how Dwight Howard owns the paint, but even when he isn't in the game there isn't a big defensive drop off for the Magic because Marcin Gortat is a good defensive presence down low. The one spot where Orlando will have problems is with Garnett, who couldn't be stopped by Antawn Jamison, so I don't think Rashard Lewis will be able to slow him down. Stan Van Gundy is going to have to go to Brandon Bass in this series at some point. He matches up with Garnett better than Lewis or Ryan Anderon, the problem is that Stan hasn't shown any inclination to give him big minutes since he came over from Dallas.

The Celtics have been great defensively against Miami and Cleveland, but those are offenses that pretty much revolve around one guy. Orlando is much more balanced, and they move the ball around the perimeter better than any team in the league. I the end, I think Boston's age and lack of depth will come back to hurt them.

Orlando is just playing so well right now that its hard for me to envision anyone beating them. The only edge that the Celts have is with Garnett, but Orlando, is more athletic, younger, deeper and flat out better. Boston will make it interesting, and make Orlando sweat, but I think Orlando will move onto the Finals for the second straight year.

Prediction: Magic in 6

One last thing....

2010-05-13T14:41:00.002-05:00

I don't know if this is true or not, but I heard a caller say it on Chris Russo's show on XM yesterday. Apparently LeBron does no 1-on-1 interviews with local media in Cleveland. He only talks 1-on-1 to the national people. Come on LeBron, help out the media people who defend you like the news media defends Barack Obama. He helps them with easy interviews all the time.

The problem with LeBron.....Part 2

2010-05-13T14:39:00.002-05:00

You thought I was done with LeBron didn’t you? Not so fast my friend. We haven’t even begun to talk about the selfish, attention-whore aspect of LeBron James, which bothers me more than anything else. We aren’t sure if he has the “win at all costs” gene, but he certainly has the marketing/money gene, and I’m starting to think that drives him more than anything else.

LeBron has said all the right things about wanting to win championships, but he has also stated that he wants to be a billionaire and global icon. Frankly, I don’t blame him, but I also think that it shows a very selfish side him. A side of him that wants attention. A side of him that puts himself in front of everyone else.

Exhibit A of this behavior is the thing he does with the chalk before every game. He’s not the first player to do it, but he is the first player to make a spectacle out of it. It is actually pretty cool, before home games, when the crowd is into it. My problem with it is when he does it on the road. It just cries of someone who wants everyone to look at him and react. Just play basketball. You don’t see Kobe doing that crap.

Exhibit B is the whole free agency thing. If you think it’s a circus now, just thing what its going to be on July 1. Does anyone think LeBron is going to make a quick decision, of course not. This is going to be a long, drawn out process where we will see photos and videos of LeBron being wined and dined by every team with with cap room. Even the Kings and Timberwolves.

My dream is that when he finally decides who he is going to sign with he will call a press conference, most likely at his high school or at the Nike facility in Oregon. He won’t tell ANYONE where he is going, and do what high school kids do when they commit to colleges, put on the hat of the lucky team. It might not be exactly how I’m dreaming it, but I guarantee you it will be a show. I mean, the guy can’t accept and MVP award without a show. Do we really need a made for TV event to see a guy accept the MVP award in front of a bunch of high schoolers that idolize him, where speakers come up and kiss his ass while he’s mic’d up so we can hear him laughing or making comments the entire time? Remember 2 years ago when Kobe won the MVP? He had a press conference, and that was it, Jordan did the same thing.

He may complain about the free agency distraction, but he invites it. He is a walking distraction. Wearing Yankees hats in Cleveland, of course people were going to make a big deal about that. How about his agent sitting with John Calipari at game 5 the other night, what good does that do?

The problem is that the Cavs have let LeBron run the franchise ever since they drafted him because they are scared to death about what might happen if they pissed him off. I don’t blame them, but shouldn’t there be a point when the entire organization is more important than one guy, regardless of who that one guy is? LeBron forces them to wear certain jerseys on certain nights because they go better with his shoes.

The other enabler in this is the media who never holds him accountable for any of this. Like the Cavs, they are scared of him too. He doesn’t do many interviews, and when he does, they are pretty much the same thing. Nobody presses him, nobody challenges him, they take whatever he says. That is the biggest reason that I can’t see him in New York. Could he handle the media pressure that will put on him by the people over there? The media crush with the Knicks would be nothing that we’ve never seen before, and I’m not sure anyone could handle it, especially someone that has been given a pass by the media for so long.

The problem with LeBron.....Part 1

2010-05-13T14:37:00.002-05:00

Tonight in Boston, LeBron James will play what could be very well the most important game of his career, and possibly his last game as a member of the Cavs. Technically, James has played in bigger games, but with his team being on the brink of elimination in what would be a stunning upset, James is coming off a game where he showed no energy and no fight in a 32-point home loss Tuesday night. All of the sudden, for the first time since he entered the NBA, people doubt him, and tonight’s game could very well take him from Kobe/Jordan territory and drop him into Vince Carter/Tracy McGrady territory (maybe not that far, but you get my point). Since the end of Cleveland’s drubbing the other night, people have taken shots at LeBron left and right. I certainly don’t want to be left out.

I have never been a big LeBron James fan. I certainly recognize how great a player he is, and how rare his talents are. Had I voted for the NBA MVP the last two season, my vote would’ve gone to him, but still I’m not a big fan, in fact, if I had to win one game, I’m taking Kobe Bryant over LeBron James, and its not even close.

I guess my biggest gripe with LeBron is that I don’t really like watching him play. He does some incredible thing on the court, especially in the open floor, but watching him in a half court offense is excruciating. Its basically James dribbling 30 feet away from the basket, driving inside, getting fouled, making a layup, missing a shot in traffic, or dishing to an open teammate for an open 3. That’s not an offense, that’s what the league was 10 years ago when it at its lowest point since the cocaine days of the 70’s and 80’s.

Hang on, I take that back, that isn’t all he does in the half court. He also jacks up 3’s, a lot of them. During the Regular season he tried 387 3-pointers, that’s 5 a game, 17th most in the NBA. He only made a third of them. Only Stephen Jackson made a lower percentage of the players who finished in the top 35 in attempts. This baffles me, how is it that a guy who is such a freak of an athlete takes so many 3’s, especially when he isn’t that good a shooter. He has never made more than 35% of his 3’s, and his career high came in his 2^nd year in the NBA.

Now, not all of this is his fault, he plays for an offensively challenged head coach who does a poor job of getting LeBron the ball on different spots on the floor, but the one thing I blame LeBron for is the lack of Evolution to his game. Has he really worked on his game the few offseason’s? I’m not saying he hasn’t gotten better, he is a better free throw shooter, and his assists are up. He also made more than half his shots from the field this season for the first time, but he hasn’t really added anything to his repertoire. People have said for years that he would be unstoppable is he ever developed a post game, how is it that he hasn’t done this?

Last summer, after winning his 4^th championship, Kobe Bryant spent some time with Hakeem Olajuwon working on his post skills. Why hasn’t LeBron made a call to Hakeem? Can you imagine how devastating LeBron would be a post game? You couldn’t guard him 1-on-1, and he would be deadly passing out of double teams, plus it would keep him away from the perimeter and out of position to waste possessions by taking long jumpers.

Part of the reason why James takes so many 3’s is that teams leave him open. They want him to jack up 3’s because then he isn’t getting the free throw line, he isn’t getting his teammates involved, and he isn’t going to make a high percentage of those shots. The Celtics will gladly allow him to take open 3’s every time down the floor tonight, and they should since it’s the weakest part of his game, unfortunately for the Cavs, he takes the bait every time.

Quite possibly, the worst thing that could’ve happened to LeBron was making the Finals in 2007. He carried the Cavs that postseason, especially in the East Finals against Detroit where he had that legendary game 5, but you almost feel like he’s been in cruise control ever since being under the false belief that he would be able to get back to the Finals just by staying that good. Unfortunately things don’t work that way. How ironic is it that 3 years after he reached his playoff pinnacle in Detroit in that game 5, he hit his playoff low in a game 5 of a 2-2 series as well.

Reevaluating my second round picks

2010-05-06T22:59:00.003-05:00

Each series has played 2 games, here are my new predictions:

Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland vs #4 Boston
Prediction before series: Cavs in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Celtics in 6

The Celtics should really be up 2-0 in this series, and there really doesn't appear to be a sense of urgency from the Cavs, and it starts with Lebron. When the Cavs lost to Boston 2 years in 7 games they went 0-4 in Boston. Last year against the Magic, they went 0-3 in Orlando. I just don't think Cleveland's supporting cast is good enough to win on the road.

#2 Orlando vs #3 Atlanta
Prediction before series: Magic in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Magic in 4

Orlando is just a lot better, and I don't think Atlanta believes they can beat the Magic. John Hollinger wrote on ESPN today that Atlanta is the sort of team that doesn't translate to the playoffs because they are easy to prepare for. I think he is right because even though they have gotten out of the first round the last 2 years, they been outclassed in the next round.

Western Conference
#1 LA Lakers vs #5 Utah
Prediction before series: Lakers in 6
Prediction after 2 games: Lakers in 5

Andrei Kirilenko isn't going to help Utah rebound, and to the surprise of no one that is their biggest problem right now. The Jazz had around 20 offensive rebounds in game 2 and still got out rebounded by 20. It wouldn't shock me if the Jazz go to game 6, but they just aren't built to beat the Lakers.

#3 Phoenix vs #7 San Antonio
Prediction before series: Suns in 7
Prediction after 2 games: Suns in 5

I just don't think San Antonio is good enough defensively. They also aren't as good in the half court, and I don't think they can slow the game down enough to keep Phoenix from running. I said before the series that I liked the Suns because they aren't as reliant on Nash as they have been, and that has shown to be true the first 2 games. Nash has been great, but so have the guys around him.

Reviewing my first round picks

2010-05-04T23:59:00.004-05:00

Not quite as dominant as the first round last season, but still decent none the less. I will post edited picks for the conference semis before the first group of game 3's on Friday.

Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland vs #8 Chicago
Prediction before series: Cavs in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Cavs in 5
Actual result: Cavs in 5

#2 Orlando vs #7 Charlotte
Prediction before series: Magic in 4
Prediction after 2 games: Magic in 4
Actual result: Magic in 4

#3 Atlanta vs #6 Milwaukee
Prediction before series: Hawks in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Hawks in 5
Actual result: Hawks in 7

#4 Boston vs #5 Miami
Prediction before series: Heat in 6
Prediction after 2 games: Celtics in 5
Actual result: Celtics in 5

Western Conference
#1 LA Lakers vs #8 Oklahoma City
Prediction before series: Lakers in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Lakers in 5
Actual result: Lakers in 6

#2 Dallas vs #7 San Antonio
Prediction before series: Mavs in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Mavs in 7
Actual result: Spurs in 6

#3 Phoenix vs #6 Portland
Prediction before series: Suns in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Suns in 5
Actual result: Suns in 6

#4 Denver vs #5 Utah
Prediction before series: Jazz in 6
Prediction after 2 games: Jazz in 6
Actual result: Jazz in 6

Preview: #2 Orlando vs #3 Atlanta

2010-05-04T14:32:00.002-05:00

The 4th conference semifinal series gets underway tonight as the only team to sweep a first round series, Orlando, takes on the only team to win a game 7, Atlanta. I think Orlando wins this series pretty easily, which would make for a disappointing season for Atlanta, who it looked like could make the next step earlier in the season. Here is why I like Orlando:

Dwight Howard will not have to deal with foul trouble like he did against Charlotte because the Hawks don't have 3 interchangeable centers that. The 3-headed "monster" of Theo Ratliff, Nazr Mohammed, and Tyson Chandler could grab, pull, push Howard inducing a bunch of fouls because it didn't really matter to Charlotte if the calls went the other way. The 3 centers combined for 44 fouls in 4 games. Atlanta needs Al Horford to stay on the floor, so they can't try and pick up cheap fouls on Howard because if the calls go the other way on Horford they are screwed.

Jameer Nelson will own Mike Bibby. That matchup is quite lopsided.

As athletic as Atlanta is, don't forget how athletic and deep Orlando is.

As lopsided as the Nelson/Bibby matchup, the Van Gundy/Woodson matchup could be worse.

The only matchup where you would think the Hawks have a big edge is Josh Smith against Rashard Lewis IF Smith can play with discipline, that wasn't always the case in the last series against Milwaukee. Although, I am surprised the Smith never scored more than 16 points against the Magic this season, so maybe it isn't the advantage that I think it is.

Orlando won 3 of the 4 meetings this season. The Hawks only win came on a tip in at the buzzer. The Magic won their 3 games by huge margins. On one end you have a team that plays well together, is well prepared, and is a well rounded offensive team, on the other end you have the opposite. This one is easy.

Prediction: Magic in 5

Nicotine patch endorsement coming for Leyland?

2010-05-04T13:31:00.003-05:00

A new law banning all public smoking in Michigan took effect Saturday morning. It effectively makes it illegal for someone to smoke outside at work. That is bad news for one of Michigan's most famous and visible citizens- Tiger manager Jim Leyland who is probably best known as the manager who smokes cigarettes in the dugout during games. Commerica Park is included in the list of places where smoking is banned, so Leyland will have to find a way to survive without a smoke a during games. It could be rough for the 65 year old when the Tigers play the Red Sox or Yankees.

Maybe Leyland could use this opportunity to quit smoking all together. Unlikely, but it might not be the worst marketing idea for one of the companies that sell the patch or the gum to hire Leyland as a spokesperson. Leyland could be a rolemodel for kids everywhere.

Commerica Park actually has a Cigar bar, but it won't be affected by the ban. Leyland has also said that he will not try to sneak over there during games for a quick nicotine fix.

The Rockets pitch to Chris Bosh

2010-05-03T00:35:00.003-05:00

On July 1, while some teams focus on Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, or Amare Stoudemire, the Rockets will focus their full attention on Chris Bosh. This isn't exactly breaking news, it has been assumed for months that the Rockets would make a serious play for the 26 year old, but if you read Richard Justice's column in todays Chronicle it is basically confirmed that Bosh is the #1 target, they won't mess with the other guys I mentioned above.

What Justice discusses in the column is the sales pitch the Rockets will give Bosh. Last season Marcin Gortat was the Rockets #1 target because that is the door step that GM Darryl was on once the clock struck midnight July 1 last summer. It was Morey holding the password to a Gmail address he created for Rockets fans to encourage Gortat to sign with the Rockets. The pitch for Bosh? Here is what Justice wrote today:

Chris Bosh will open his front door at 12:01 a.m. July 1 and see a smiling Daryl Morey standing between Hakeem Olajuwon and Yao Ming.

How's that for a first impression?

Morey will have a bag of other goodies, including a video showing off Houston and a testimonial from Rockets season-ticket holder Andre Johnson urging Bosh to join him in Clutch City.

There will be hundreds of Facebook and Twitter posts from fans, a Rockets jersey with Bosh's name on it and — I almost forgot this teensy-weensy part of the presentation — a contract worth $120 million.

At least, this is how it might go. The Rockets haven't decided who will accompany Morey to the presentation, but they have spent the last few weeks discussing how best to persuade him.

In all honesty, you can't go wrong with sandwiching Morey in between Yao and Hakeem, hell throw in Clyde Drexler while you are at it, but I think the Rockets biggest selling point could be one of the quietist: Rick Adelman. Just hand Bosh a packet of what former players say about playing for Rick Adelman (Another reason to include Drexler in the midnight house call). I've said this often over the last 2 seasons, but I'll say it again, I've never seen so many players come over and embrace a coach before a game. Guys like Mike Bibby, Jason Williams, Hedo Turkoglu, Gerald Wallace, Brad Miller and Carl Landry. A lot of those guys haven't played for him for a long time, but there they are every time they see him, you can tell that they loved playing for him.

The Rockets can't offer more money than anyone else, they aren't a huge market team, the arena isn't located by the beach. What they can offer is a great organization that has a great coach that everyone loves playing for, focus on that.

Conference Semifinal Predictions

2010-05-01T02:22:00.002-05:00

Here are my predictions for the 3 Conference Semifinals series that have been decided. I will have a quick preview of the Orlando series after the Hawks/Bucks game on Sunday. Remember, I will have new predictions for these series after game 2:

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland vs #4 Boston

I think this is probably the most anticipated of the 4 series, especially now that people are back on the Boston bandwagon after they beat Miami pretty easily in round 1. In all honesty, I think this is going to be one of those series that everyone gets real excited about, only to be disappointed by how one-sided it actually ends up being. I really wasn't that impressed by the Celtics in the last series. They should've lost games 1 and 3, and the team they played was horrific. The Cavs have dominated Boston this season, going 3-1, and the game the Celts lost, the Cavs didn't play until they were down big, and almost came back and won. Garnett and Ray Allen are the keys for Boston, especially Garnett, who will have his work cut out for him on the defensive end. I keep hearing how this is the defining series of Lebron James' career; please, the defining series of his career will be in the next round against Orlando. He shouldn't have any trouble in this series.

Prediction: Cavs in 5

Western Conference

#1 Lakers vs #5 Utah

Deron Williams and the Jazz might've been the most impressive team in round 1, but I think they run into 2 serious problems against the Lakers. #1 is size, the Lakers run out a bunch of 7-footers, while Utah runs out a bunch of guys who are 6-8. Don't get me wrong, Utah's bigs are real good, but Gasol, Bynum, and Odom have given them problems in the past. The other problem Utah has is that the Lakers just have their number. In fact, Jerry Sloan has never beaten Phil Jackson in a playoff series, and the Lakers have knocked Utah out of the playoffs each of the last 2 seasons. Utah is 0-6 at Staples Center in those 2 series. I do think Utah has an edge in the back court with their youth and athleticism, but so did Oklahoma City. In the end, I think the Lakers size wins out.

Prediction: Lakers in 7

#3 Phoenix vs #7 San Antonio

They have met 3 times in the playoffs since Nash came over to Phoenix, the Spurs won all 3 series, and Nash went up against the Spurs twice in Dallas, and lost them both as well. Not a good track record. I'll ignore the 2 Spurs/Mavs series that Nash was in because David Robinson and Steve Kerr also played in them as well, but lets look at the 3 Suns/Spurs series, they all have a couple of things in common: The Spurs have won game 1 in all 3, and actually led 3-0 in 2005 and 2008. The other, is that Phoenix has been bad at home. Phoenix is 4-12 in the 3 series, and just 2-6 at home. Game 1 could very well decide this series, Phoenix has to win it. I think Phoenix should be encouraged for a couple of reasons: They aren't as reliant on Nash as they have been in the past. They now have guys who are capable of getting their own shots, they don't need Nash to everything for them, which is big in the games where he isn't good, something that happened quite a bit against Portland.

Prediction: Suns in 6

The importance of game 5 in a 2-2 series

2010-04-26T17:47:00.003-05:00

Tonight's Blazers/Suns game is the first of 2 (possibly 3 if Milwaukee beats Atlanta tonight) game 5's of 2-2 series. Those series have gone from being best of 7 series to now becoming a best of 3. In the last 20 years, 69 of 196 best of 7 series have gone to game 5 tied 2-2, here are the series win percentages:

Before the series, the team with the home court advantage won the series 77% of the time (151/196).

In a 2-2 series, the team with the home court advantage has won the series 75.4% of the time (52/69)

The home team is 54-15 in game 5 (78.3%).

48 of the 54 teams have gone onto win the series (88.9%)

11 of the 15 road teams to win game 5 went onto win the series (73.3)

So that means that the winner of game 5 wins the series 85.5% of the time.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I did not include the NBA Finals in this because the team without home court advantage hosts game 5.

The importance of winning game 3

2010-04-23T17:06:00.002-05:00

I have given you the percentages for teams after winning games 1 and 2 of a best of seven series. Now I will give you the percentages for teams after winning game 3 of a 1-1 series. As I told you earlier, in the last 20 years, 75 series have been tied 1-1. The team that wins game 3 has gone onto win the series 77.3% (58/75) of the time. Here it is broken down further:

When the home teams wins game 3 they win the series 68.9% (24/37) of the time.

When the road team wins and steals back the home court advantage, they win the series 89.5% (34/38) of the time.

It is important to note that the road team has won more than half of the game 3's in these split series.

Reevaluating my first round picks

2010-04-22T16:08:00.002-05:00

Every series is 2 games in. Like I did last season, I have edited my picks.

Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland vs #8 Chicago
Prediction before series: Cavs in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Cavs in 5

The Bulls are young and feisty and can play with Cleveland. I think its enough to get them a win in Chicago. They will play hard because the last thing they want is to get embarrassed at home.

#2 Orlando vs #7 Charlotte
Prediction before series: Magic in 4
Prediction after 2 games: Magic in 4

Orlando has gotten very little out of Dwight Howard, and they have still won the first 2 games pretty easily. Charlotte just isn’t capable of scoring enough points to make Orlando sweat. I just don’t see them winning a game in this series.

#3 Atlanta vs #6 Milwaukee
Prediction before series: Hawks in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Hawks in 5

The Bucks will have a good crowd at home, and I really would like to see them get a game. They have played hard in both games; they have just fallen behind early. I think they will start strong in one of the 2 games at home, and they will ride the crowd to a win.

#4 Boston vs #5 Miami
Prediction before series: Heat in 6
Prediction after 2 games: Celtics in 5

I really could not have been more wrong about this series. I thought this Heat team was a little better than the team that took Atlanta to game 7 last year. I was wrong. The Celtics have played great defense since the middle of the third quarter in game 1, and Miami can’t get anything going offensively. I’m not even sure if Miami will win a game, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt.

Western Conference
#1 LA Lakers vs #8 Oklahoma City
Prediction before series: Lakers in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Lakers in 5

The Lakers haven’t looked great in either game, but they know how to win close playoff games, and the Thunder hasn’t quite figured it out. I think OK City blows them out in game 3, but the Lakers comeback and win a close game 4, and win game 5 rather easily. That is usually the way a series like this turns out.

#2 Dallas vs #7 San Antonio
Prediction before series: Mavs in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Mavs in 7

I was real disappointed with the way Dallas played in game 2. I’m still not sure if San Antonio is capable of replicating the way they played throughout the rest of the series, but I do think they can at least get a split at home, making this a long series. I think Dallas is better, and in the end they could simply wear down the Spurs, especially if they are able to push tempo.

#3 Phoenix vs #6 Portland
Prediction before series: Suns in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Suns in 5

This one is real hard because it’s hard for me to imagine Portland losing 2 straight home games, but I think Alvin Gentry might have figured some things out in between games 1 and 2. Now Portland is dealing with more injuries, and I just don’t see how they can keep up with Phoenix. I think they caught Phoenix by surprise in game 1, but now that Portland has their attention, the Suns will take care of business.

#4 Denver vs #5 Utah
Prediction before series: Jazz in 6
Prediction after 2 games: Jazz in 6

I don’t feel overly confident in this pick, but I was real impressed by Utah’s toughness in game 2. I don’t see Denver being able to win in Utah, mostly because they have a tendency to lose focus, and you can’t do that on the road in the playoffs.

Win percentages after game 2 in a best-of-7 series

2010-04-21T16:46:00.002-05:00

Earlier in the week I went through the last 196 best of 7 NBA playoff series, and I gave you the winning percentages for the team that has home court advantage following game 1. I will repeat the info here, and add what the percentages are following game 2.

In the last 196 best of 7 series the home team won game one 146 times. 130 of those teams won the series (89%).

When the team with home court advantage took a 2-0 series lead they won the series 92.9% of the time (104/112)

In the last 196 best of 7 series the road team won game one 50 times, 29 of those teams won the series (58%).

Just 9 of those 39 teams would go home with a 2-0 series lead, 7 of those teams held on and won the series (2005 Houston lost to Dallas in 7 games after winning games 1 and 2 in Dallas, and 1994 Phoenix lost to Houston in 7 games after winning games 1 and 2 in Houston.)

Of the last 196 best of 7 series, 75 have been split after 2 games. The team that began the series with the home court advantage won the series 47 times (62.3%)

Don’t be fooled by the 9 times in 20 years when it comes to the road team winning the first 2 games, it is much more rare than once every 2 years. I happened 4 times in a 3 year stretch from ’93-’95. The Rockets have been involved in both cases of a team blowing a 2-0 lead going home, they have actually been involved in 5 of the 9 series.

Joakim Noah vs the city of Cleveland

2010-04-20T01:26:00.002-05:00

I couldn't stand Joakim Noah when he was at Florida, but since he has come into the NBA I have softened on him. I think he may now be my favorite player after he is continuing to go after the city of Cleveland for sucking. After game 2 he was asked if he regretted what he said about the mistake by the lake. He did not.

I love how he is making the reporters either lie by saying Cleveland is great or admit that he was right. To illustrate how amazing Cleveland is, I thought I would post the Hastily Made Cleveland Tourism Video that was made famous during the Eastern Conference Finals.

Quick thoughts on all 8 game 1's

2010-04-19T16:32:00.002-05:00

Remember, I will have new series predictions posted after all 8 game 2's are completed on Wednesday. The teams I picked to win the series went 5-3 in game 1.

Cleveland/Chicago

If that is the Shaq that shows up the rest of the playoffs the the next 2 months are going to be a big waste of time because Cleveland may not lose a game. Remember, missing from the Bulls off of the team that lost to Boston is Ben Gordon, John Salmons and Tyrus Thomas, this Bulls team just isn't good enough.

Orlando/Charlotte

At some point in this postseason if Orlando expects to win the East again they are going to have to get big games out of Vince Carter. They can get away with that now, but they won't be able to in the next round. Hard to believe that Dwight Howard didn't get in double figures in any category while not being in early foul trouble.

Atlanta/Milwaukee

Atlanta is too good right now, especially without Bogut, but as you saw Saturday, Milwaukee will play hard and they will make the Hawks play 48 minutes. Impressive performance by Brandon Jennings who has been a little overhyped since his amazing start. Nice to see someone wasn't overwhelmed by the playoff pressure.

Boston/Miami

Good for Quentin Richardson getting KG suspended, but the rest of the Miami supporting cast has to do more than they did in the second half of game 1. Miami was the much better team the first 30 minutes, but were badly out classes the rest of the way. By the way, it is a problem for the Celtics that their best players were Tony Allen and Glenn Davis.

Lakers/Oklahoma City

Welcome to the Playoffs Thunder! I will echo what I said after the Rockets demolished Portland in game 1 last year: "A playoff game is a little different than playing Memphis on a Tuesday night". They weren't ready for what the Lakers were going to throw at them, and they couldn't recover from a bad first quarter. The Lakers owned them on the boards early, and like I said, Ron Artest bothered Kevin Durant. Positives for Oklahoma City are that Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook will cause LA problems.

Dallas/San Antonio

I really felt bad for Matt Bonner who had know chance against Dirk last night. Thats the big problem for San Antonio, they have no answer for him. It will be interesting to see if Tony Parker starts game 2, and how much does Richard Jefferson even play, when Pop said a lot of his guys played like Dogs, I'm pretty sure he meant RJ.

Phoenix/Portland

Can the Blazers get 3 more? I don't know, but they could. Phoenix has got to figure out a way to stop Miller and Bayless. The problem with that is, I don't think they do. Nash certainly can't, Jason Richardson could maybe slow one down, but its not like they have anyone off the bench who can. I think Phoenix needs to look to playing small to help free up Amare. Let him guard Camby and put Jared Dudley or Grant Hill on Aldridge, its not like Aldridge plays like a 7 footer.

Denver/Utah

Without Mehmet Okur, Denver will be able to pack the paint making life more difficult on Carlos Boozer and Paul Milsaps. Their also won't be as much free space in the paint for Deron Williams to operate. The CJ Miles injury might have been the most crushing loss for the Jazz in game 1, because without Andrei Kirilenko, the Jazz have nobody who can slow down Carmelo Anthony, as we saw in the 4th quarter of game 1. Utah also needs to do a better job of playing JR Smith tigher.

The Curse of Grant Hill

2010-04-18T22:58:00.003-05:00

When you talk about the best players in the NBA who have never won a playoff series the first name you come to is Tracy McGrady, but we have seem to forgotten another big name, in fact he was a teammate of McGrady's, although they never actually played in a playoff game together. That of course is Grant Hill who never won a playoff series in Detroit, appeared in just one playoff series with Orlando, after McGrady was traded, and lost his only playoff series with Phoenix 2 years ago. Here are Grant Hill's playoff results and stats:

With Detroit

1996: Swept by Orlando

1997: Lost 3-2 to Atlanta

1999: Lost 3-2 to Atlanta

2000: Swept by Miami

With Orlando

2007: Swept by Detroit

Did not play in the 2001, 02 and 03 playoffs.

With Phoenix

2008: Lost 4-1 to San Antonio

Year	Team	GP	GS	MPG	FG%	3P%	FT%	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	PPG
1995–96	Detroit	3	3	38.3	.564	.500	.857	7.3	3.7	1.0	.0	19.0
1996–97	Detroit	5	5	40.6	.437	.000	.718	6.8	5.4	.8	1.0	23.6
1998–99	Detroit	5	5	35.2	.457	.000	.813	7.2	7.4	2.0	.4	19.4
1999–00	Detroit	2	2	27.5	.375	.500	.900	5.5	4.5	.5	.0	11.0
2006–07	Orlando	4	4	35.8	.500	.000	.667	5.5	3.8	.5	.2	15.0
2007–08	Phoenix	3	2	22.7	.455	.000	1.000	5.3	1.0	.7	.3	3.7
Career		22	21	34.5	.465	.400	.752	6.4	4.6	1.0	.4	16.6

Hill's lack of playoff success was talked about a lot when he played for the Pistons, but really hasn't been mentioned since he left, mostly because he had the long playoff drought because of injuries. You notice he only played in 2 games in 2000, he re-injured his foot in that series, which basically killed the prime of his career. Also memorable about that 2000 series against Miami- Game 1 was played at noon eastern time on a Saturday, the previous night, the Feds burst into a Miami home and confiscated Elian Gonzales and sent him back to Cuba. There were riots in the streets of Miami near American Airlines Arena which kept many fans from getting inside.

The importance of Game 1

2010-04-18T20:24:00.002-05:00

You heard all weekend about the importance of winning the first game of a playoff series. Its is true that the winner of game 1 wins the series about 80% of the time, but I dug a little deeper. In all, I took the last 196 best of 7 NBA playoff series, which goes back 20 years.

159 of the 196 teams that won game 1 went on to win the series, which is 81.1%. I then separated the series into two categories: the first being when the home team wins game 1, the second being when to road team wins game 1. Here is what I found:

In the last 196 best of 7 series the home team won game one 146 times. 130 of those teams won the series (89%).

In the last 196 best of 7 series the road team won game one 50 times. Only 29 of those teams won the series (58%).

What is also important to note is that in the last 196 best of seven series, the team with the home court advantage has won 151 times (77%).

It’s not hard to figure out why these numbers are the way they are. The team with home court is in most cases the better team. The reason why only 16 teams with home court have lost a series after winning game is that you are asking an inferior team to win 4 of the next 6 games. Its hard enough for those teams to win 3 of 6, as you can see by close to half of the road teams losing a series after winning game 1.

So while its just game 1, and it’s a long series, you can argue that the first game is the most important. It sets the tone for the rest of the series.

I also have percentages of what happens in a series after 2 games, and I will post it tomorrow night.

NBA Playoff predictions: Round 1

2010-04-16T17:08:00.003-05:00

Here are my predictions for Round 1 of the playoffs. Remember, I will amend these picks after each series has completed game 2.

#1 Cleveland vs #8 Chicago

I know people are saying the Bulls are dangerous because of what they did to Boston last year, but there are 2 big things to remember: Garnett didn’t play in that series, and the Bulls are without both John Salmons and Ben Gordon, translation: The Bulls are not as good now as they were last season at this time. This series won’t be the joke that the Pistons series was for the Cavs, but I don’t the Bulls threatening Cleveland, especially considering the Cavs hate them and will look to embarrass them.

Prediction: Cavs in 5

#2 Orlando vs #7 Charlotte

As I said last week, this is a bad matchup for the Bobcats. Orlando is playing its best basketball of the season, and they will want to make this a quick series because it is likely that the Hawks (Spoiler alert) will win their series easily. Charlotte is not good enough offensively to really put pressure on Orlando. They don’t have a low post scoring threat to get Howard in foul trouble, and they really don’t have a guy who can get in the paint. This will be a quick series with a team on a mission against a team happy to be there.

Prediction: Magic in 4

#3 Atlanta vs #6 Milwaukee

It really is a shame that Andrew Bogut got hurt because the Bucks really could’ve done some damage in these playoffs. They still went 4-2 without Bogut, but one of the 2 losses came against the Hawks, and in a series, the Bucks will miss his 16-10 and 2.5 blocks a game. Like Charlotte, I don’t think they are good enough offensively to muster up much of a challenge.

Prediction: Hawks in 5

#4 Boston vs #5 Miami

This is really where I was hoping a healthy Bucks team would end up because I think they would’ve beaten the Celtics easily. I am really amazed at how many people think this is the ’08 championship team. Can anyone point to anything positive this team has done recently? Even when they beat Cleveland they only played 3 quarters and almost blew a huge lead. They look old, and they don’t like each other. I know Boston won all 3 games that they played, but they haven’t played since Feb. 3, a lot has happened since then. Miami is better than people think, and they can give Boston some matchup problems especially with Michael Beasley. Remember, the Heat took Atlanta to game 7 last season.

Prediction: Heat in 6

#1 Lakers vs #8 Oklahoma City

This is a bad matchup for Oklahoma City. Pretty much all of their guys are going to the playoffs for the first time, and its Scott Brooks’ first playoff appearance as a coach. That stuff matters. Also, the Thunder’s big weakness is rebounding, and that is one of the Lakers big strengths. I also think that Ron Artest will frustrate Durant over the course of the series. Artest’s strength will bother KD. Lets not forget that Oklahoma City hasn’t been very good of late, and they are a bad team in crunch time. The reason they are playing the Lakers is because they blew a game in Portland Monday, a game they had a comfortable halftime lead in. The Lakers haven’t been great down the stretch, but they haven’t been terrible. Kobe has been in and out, and Andrew Bynum hasn’t played. This is different from the Celtics because the Lakers really aren’t old. Fisher is old and Kobe is older, but the rest of the team is still pretty much in their primes, they will be fine.

Prediction: Lakers in 5

#2 Dallas vs #7 San Antonio

I know the Spurs have played well down the stretch, but I just don’t get how so many people think the Spurs will win this series. I don’t see it. They are still really old, they aren’t very deep, and I don’t think the really have any matchups that really favor them, except for maybe Manu Ginobli. The Mavs are deeper, more versatile, and more athletic. Lets also remember that Dallas won the season series with the Spurs this season, and they destroyed San Antonio in this spot last season. San Antonio used to own the Mavs inside, that won’t happen in this series. I think once again the Mavs win it easily.

Prediction: Mavs in 5

#3 Phoenix vs #6 Portland

It’s really a shame that Brandon Roy can’t play because of the knee injury; otherwise this could’ve been a great series. Portland is just too weak at the wing positions to run with Phoenix, and they aren’t built to slow the game down because they don’t have a great low post threat, and they aren’t efficient enough offensively, which would slow the Suns down as well. It really feels like there is something special about this Suns team. I think Portland can win a game at home, but I don’t see them winning in Phoenix. Andre Miller as their best perimeter scorer will be a detriment.

Prediction: Suns in 5

#4 Denver vs #5 Utah

This is a weird series just because nobody is really sure who will be on the floor. Kirilenko is out for Utah, and that is a big loss because he could’ve done a good job on Carmelo Anthony. I think Utah’s best defense will wind up being their offense. They shoot 49% from the field, and they rebound well. That will slow Denver down, I also think that the Utah and the way they play will frustrate Denver, and lets be honest, The Nuggets are an insane group, and we are really seeing how valuable George Karl is because he was able to control the crazy guys. Denver hasn’t been the same since he left, and I don’t see how they get it back for this series. Plus Denver is awful on the road, and Utah finished with a winning record away from Salt Lake for the first time since I can remember.

Prediction: Jazz in 6

Playoff predictions coming soon

2010-04-16T00:45:00.002-05:00

I’m going to do the same thing I did last season. I will make predictions now, and then I will amend those predictions after game 2 has been played. Last season I picked 7 of the 8 series correctly, I only missed on Dallas/San Antonio. After 2 games I didn’t change the winner for any series, I just adjusted the games. I picked the games each series would last correctly for all 7 series I got right, I got 4 of them correct before the series started, the remaining 3 I picked right after 2 games.

Here are my predictions from last season. This should help inspire an incredible amount of confidence in whatever I pick this season.

This link has the recap of my first round picks as well with the actual winners.

Scott Brooks should not be coach of the year

2010-04-14T17:57:00.002-05:00

Scott Brooks has done a very good job in his first full season as an NBA head coach, and he will probably win coach of the year, but he shouldn't. I know the Thunder are going to the playoffs and more than doubled their win total from last season, but that sort of improvement should've been expected, especially when you consider how much talent there is on that roster.

The Thunder don't just have 4 lottery picks from the last 3 years in their rotation, they have 4 top 5 picks. Kevin Durant was picked 2nd in '07, Jeff Green was #5 in '07, Russell Westbrook was the 3rd pick back in '08. and James Harden was picked 4th this past draft. That sure is a lot of talent, and Brooks definitely deserves a lot of credit for getting a real young team to 50 wins, but is that the best coaching job of the season? Its not like he had to deal with a ton of injuries, and its not like the Thunder made a lot of changes in the offseason. Aside from Harden, he pretty much brought back the same young, incredibly talented team he had last season. If someone with the Thunder deserves an award, you have to give it to GM Sam Presti for drafting those guys.

Coach of the Year in the NBA is always a tough call. I don't know who should win it, but here are 5 guys that should be considered:

Scott Skiles (Milwaukee)- He again lost Michael Redd early in the season, that cost the Bucks a playoff spot last season, this season they didn't miss a beat. Skiles had to deal with a rookie point guard, and he seamlessly worked in 2 late season acquisitions in Jerry Stackhouse and John Salmons. They even continued to win after the gruesome Andrew Bogut injury.

Nate McMillan (Portland)- Had to deal with countless major injuries the entire season, and managed to finish ahead of Oklahoma City. He had to work in a new point guard at the start of the season, and then Marcus Camby at the deadline. If you win 50 games with Juwan Howard playing major minutes you have done some coaching.

Alvin Gentry (Phoenix)- Who saw 54 wins for Phoenix this season? He got a bunch of veterans to buy into his way of doing things. He also had to deal with all sorts of trade rumors for the first 4 months of the season.

Rick Adelman (Houston)- His team was left for dead last summer after Yao wasn't going to be able to play. He won 42 games with a team filled with role players in the Western Conference. He had to deal with Tracy McGrady, constant trade rumors, and a lot of injuries late in the season. He had the Rockets in playoff contention for most of the season, even though most people didn't think they would win 30 games. It is important to note that the only lottery picks that played minutes for the Rockets this season were McGrady, Shane Battier, and Jared Jeffries.

Can the Bobcats upset someone in the first round?

2010-04-09T22:15:00.002-05:00

Wednesday night the Bobcats clinched a playoff spot for the first time in franchise history. They will be given no chance to compete against whoever they play, mostly because nobody has really seen them play. They haven't had a national TV game all season, and really, the only reason anyone has talked about them this season is because Michael Jordan bought a majority stake in the team. If you haven't seen them this season, you really haven't missed that much. They aren't overly exciting, they don't score a lot of points, in fact, only 2 teams in the league score less a game than they do, but that doesn't mean they aren't good. They are capable of shocking someone in the first round, here's why:

The Bobcats give up less than 94 points a game, that is the fewest in the NBA. They are big at every position other than point guard. They are 6-7 or bigger at the 2-5 spots, and they are athletic at all those spots, especially at the 3 where Gerald Wallace is as good a defender as their is in the league. They also have Tyson Chandler inside, who appears to be healthy, and will be a force inside as a shot blocker, he had 5 tonight against the Rockets.

The Bobcats traded for Tyrus Thomas at the deadline, and he has been big for them coming off the bench. He is hurt right now, and has missed the last 2 games and could miss more. If he is able to comeback and be a factor, he creates all sorts of matchup problems because of how athletic he is.

Another trade that Charlotte made this season was getting Stephen Jackson, who has been the big scorer that they lacked last season. When you are an underdog in a playoff series, you need a guy who is capable of taking over a game, Jack can do that, just ask the Mavericks. Then again he is also capable of blowing up as well, but that isn't important right now.

In case you didn't notice, and I'm willing to bet that you didn't, the Bobcats head coach is Larry Brown. Yep, the Larry Brown who won a ring in Detroit. Like Isiah Thomas at Florida International, I think Brown is coaching for free because the Knicks owe him so much money. Regardless of that, he is still one of the best coaches in the league, and will have his team ready to play, and he has done his fair share of winning playoff games, and doing it as a low seed.

All that being said, the perfect matchup for Charlotte in the first round would have been Boston. Jackson on Allen, Wallace on Pierce, and all of the sudden Boston could really struggle scoring points. The Charlotte athleticism inside would also give the Celtics fits, making point guard the only big position advantage for the Celtics. Plus, lets be honest, the Brown/Doc Rivers matchup is as big an advantage for Charlotte as the Rondo/Felton matchup is for Boston.

Alas, it looks like the Bobcats will be locked into the 7 seed, thus matching them up with Orlando in round. If thats the case, Charlotte is screwed, because many of those matchup problems Charlotte would've given Boston, they won't give Orlando, especially at the coaching spot. Plus, Tyrus Thomas has no chance to stay on the floor against Dwight Howard, and really, his shot blocking skills are almost useless because so many of Orlando's shots are jumpers outside the paint. Maybe Charlotte could dust off the owner and give him a few minutes.

Did Rick Adelman take a shot at Don Nelson

2010-04-07T22:56:00.002-05:00

Wednesday night against Utah, Rockets coach Rick Adelman became the 11th coach in NBA history to win 900 games. On the same night Warriors coach Don Nelson became the winningest coach in NBA history. Nelson is 69, and lost 53 games last season, he has lost 54 so far this season. Many people believe that the record was the only reason why he is still coaching.

Adelman was asked about his achievement. Below is what he said. Pay careful attention to the end. Does it sound like Adelman takes a bit of a shot at Nellie?

He probably meant nothing by it, but I wasn't the only person in the room who thought he might have.

Podcast #7: Talking Rockets with Sports Radio 610's Shaun Bijani

2010-04-07T19:58:00.002-05:00

SportsRadio 610's Shaun Bijani joined me for another Podcast. We started out talking briefly about the Astros and their early struggles. Among the things we discussed about the Rockets were the play of Trevor Ariza, the futures of Shane Battier and Yao Ming, and the Rockets free agency possibilities. We also made our championship predictions. We both picked different teams. The podcast lasts close to an hour. We recorded it at Toyota Center less than an hour and half before the Rockets/Jazz game, so it gets a little loud towards the end.

What if Yao decides to opt-out?

2010-04-06T12:45:00.000-05:00

A year ago today, it was assumed that Yao Ming would opt out of the final year of his contract after this season. He was about finished with a regular season that saw him play 77 games, and average 20 points and 10 boards. Then Yao broke his foot in the playoffs against the Lakers, and the foot didn’t heal right, forcing him to miss this season. Yao couldn’t possibly opt out of over $15 million next season when he won’t play a minute this season could he? That is were the NBA’s expiring CBA enters in.

Whenever a new deal is struck between the owners and the players, it will likely benefit the owners, making this summer a more favorable environment for free agents, but more favorable to a guy who hasn’t played this season, and has his last 2 seasons cut short with foot injuries, and serious injuries the 2 years before that? I wouldn’t be shocked.

We are at a time in the NBA where making money is more important than winning, partly because most teams are having financial issues. Teams are much more willing to make moves that cost them wins if it helps them financially. Overpaying for Yao makes no sense basketball wise, but it’s a brilliant basketball move. Yao is a cash cow. He will sell a ton of season tickets, and open all sorts of new revenue streams for whatever team signs him. Don’t forget Yao is the most popular citizen of the planet’s most populated nation. That’s worth a lot of money.

I don’t think Yao will opt out this summer, but I think he will have a lot of people around him who will tell him too. The question is, if he does, at what lengths will the Rockets go to keep him, and who will be the team that offers him an enormous contract because somebody will.

Duke and Butler play a game for the ages

2010-04-06T12:37:00.001-05:00

I spent a lot of time during the second half of the Butler/Duke game going through past championship games in my head. I was trying to figure out where this one stood. Turns out, we have been blessed with some great championship games, and I was just going back 15 years.

You had an amazing 3-year stretch in the late 90’s when in ‘97 Arizona upset Kentucky in Pitino’s last game at UK, the next year Kentucky stopped the mini-Cinderella run of Utah, who was a “little guy” even though they were a 3-seed. The Utes beat a great Arizona team that was a favorite to repeat with Mike Bibby and Miles Simon, in the regional final, and then beat North Carolina in the Final Four, a Carolina team with top 5 picks Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison. Then in ’99 an underrated UConn team with Richard Hamilton and Khalid El-Amin beat an elite Duke team that was riddled with guys picked in the top half of the first round- Elton Brand, Trajan Langdon, Corey Maggette, William Avery, and Shane Battier (’01 draft).

In the last decade you had the Syracuse/Kansas game in ’03, North Carolina/Illinois in ’05, and of course Kanas/Memphis in ’08, so no, last night’s Duke/Butler game isn’t the best of all-time, its not even the best championship game of the last 15 years, but it may very well go down as the most memorable.

It won’t be memorable for the talent that was assembled on the floor. Of the 15 guys who played serious minutes; none will likely play in an NBA all-star game. In terms of NBA talent this game could’ve been the worst in a long time. The only game that compares is the ’02 Indiana/Maryland game when the 2 best NBA players turned out to be Jared Jeffries and Steve Blake.

It won’t be memorable for a single performance. Kyle Singler was the game’s leading scorer, and he had just 19. Brian Zoubek was the game’s leading rebounder with just 10. Nobody had more than 2 blocks, nobody had more than 2 steals, and nobody had more than 5 assists.

It will be memorable for what it meant. A little school like Butler from the Horizon league going punch for punch with Duke for 40 minutes on the game’s biggest stage. They never trailed by more than 6 points, and there were times when it looked like Duke might take control and push the game to double digits, but they were able to dodge the patented Duke run, which is something that most big schools can’t avoid. It will be memorable for the intensity at which the game was played. There wasn’t a dull moment, at no point did you feel like you could change the channel, mostly because the game was close the entire way.

But most of all it will be memorable for the last 2 minutes, and the late comeback that Butler was able to make to give themselves a chance to win the game in the last minute a couple of times. It will be memorable for the stops Butler had to make at the end to give themselves a shot, and for the great defense that Duke played on Butler’s final possession, forcing Gordon Hayward into a tough fade away. And of course, it will be memorable for Hayward’s half court prayer that almost banked in. The collective “OOH” from the huge crowd at Lucas Oil stadium captured it perfectly.

The greatest game of all-time? No. The most memorable? Only time will tell.

Why Duke is better than we thought it was

2010-04-05T13:19:00.002-05:00

I didn’t think it was possible, but for once we actually underrated Duke. That’s right, the Cowboys/Yankees/Lakers of college basketball was actually taken lightly after a half decade of March disappointments. A Duke team that won the ACC regular season and conference tournament championships was an after thought. They’re soft, they’re not athletic, all they do is shoot 3’s. That was the Duke image coming into this tournament a few weeks ago. That image should now be erased.

Why did we take this Duke team for granted? That is an easy one. 2004 was their last final four appearance coming into this season, that is the biggest drought in the Coach K era. They had pretty much flamed out in the last 5 tournaments, losing to a lower seed in all 5 losses, including getting blown off the court last season against Villanova in the regional semifinal. That is why this Duke team, even though they were ranked high all season, and even though they were a one seed, were not considered contenders.

We all got it wrong with this Duke team. This certainly isn’t the best Duke team to ever come through the pipes, but it is real good. Here are the 4 biggest reasons why the Devils have come obscurity, as obscure as Duke can be, and are 40 minutes away from their 4^th championship:

Size

Duke basically plays 8 players. Only 2 of those players (Nolan Smith and Andre Dawkins) are shorter than 6-5. Jon Scheyer is 6-5, Kyle Singler and Lance Thomas are 6-8, the Plumlee’s are 6-10, and Brian Zoubek is 7-1. That is an incredible amount of size, and almost impossible to matchup with.

Rebounding/Toughness

These haven’t exactly been Duke calling cards in recent years, but now they are the best rebounding team in the nation. Just ask Baylor. If not for 19 offensive rebounds Duke doesn’t make it out of Houston. That is where their size is such a major factor, especially at the offensive end. They have an ability to keep possessions alive that frustrates opponents like nothing else will. 2 of their last 3 wins have come against Purdue and West Virginia, 2 of the most physical teams you could ever play, and not only did Duke come out alive, they came out with the rebounding edge.

Chemistry

I feel like Duke basketball players probably live in a bit of a cocoon, as do all major conference basketball teams do, so they spend a great deal off time off the court with each other. One of the things that really stuck out during the Houston regional was how often Coach K talked about how much his players genuinely liked one another more than any team he has ever coached. You can’t undervalue how important this is. When you are around a group of people for so much time, it helps when everyone gets along.

The Big 3

With Scheyer, Smith and Singler, the Devils have 3 big time scoring options. All 3 are capable of putting up 20 points any night, and that makes the game a lot easier. This could be the biggest difference between this Duke team and previous Duke teams. I don’t think there is a better trio in the nation, and it all starts with the improvement of Smith. He has brought a dynamic to the Duke offense that I don’t think they have had since Jason Williams. He can break down a defense, and Duke has really lacked that for quite some time. They always had the spot up shooters, but as Charles Barkley says every Thursday night “You don’t live by the 3, you die by the 3”. Duke hasn’t had to live by the 3 this season. With the emergence of Smith, Duke has been able to survive the brutal 1-11 game Scheyer had against Cal, as well as the 0-11 that Singler had against Baylor. You can survive awful games by your stars when you have guys capable of picking up the slack, and this Duke team has that.

Eagles end McNabb era with class

2010-04-05T13:16:00.001-05:00

This may come as a surprise, but people in Philadelphia are not happy today. Not only did the Eagles trade Donovan McNabb, they traded to a team they will play twice every season, forcing Eagle fans to stomach seeing the best QB in franchise history play against them year after year, until his careers comes to an end.

Football wise, this was not a great move. Its not like the Skins overpaid for McNabb, hell they underpaid for him, especially when you consider the Broncos got a replacement QB, plus 2 first round picks and a third rounder for Jay Cutler last season, but this was a very different circumstance, and the Eagles didn’t have the interest in McNabb that the Bears had in Cutler. Even though they traded him to a team in their own division, they did the right thing.

They let him leave with grace, they didn’t ship him off somewhere he didn’t want to play, which could have made for an uncomfortable hold out situation that would have made him look bad, like the Pats did with Richard Seymour last season. They did the classy thing, and trust me, other players around the league noticed this as well. Treating players with respect makes players want to take less money just to go play there. By letting McNabb pick his new team the Eagles showed loyalty, and that is something that is missing right now in sports.

Duke returns to the Final Four

2010-03-28T20:12:00.003-05:00

Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer were awful in the first half Friday night against Purdue, but Kyle Singler was terrific. Against Baylor it was the exact opposite, except it lasted the entire game. Singler went 0-10, and had just 5 points, but Smith and Scheyer combined for 49 and made 9 three pointers as Duke advanced to the Final Four for the 11th time under Coach K, the first since 2004. Singler picked up 2 early fouls, which took him out of his rythm, and spent most of the day guarding LaceDarius Dunn, but Duke still found a way.

There were over 47 thousand fans in Reliant Stadium, and most of them were wearing green and gold. Even with the crowd against them, the Devils were able to hang around, even when it looked like all the momentum was with the home team, most notably at the end of the first half. This isn't an overly talented Duke team, but it is a tough team, mentally and physically, much tougher than I think anyone realized going into this tournament. They hung around, almost waiting for Baylor to give them a chance to take control, and when the Bears did in the last 3 minutes, they took advantage.

Going into the final TV timeout there was 3:36 left, and Baylor led 61-60. At that point Duke went on a 12-1 run in 2 minutes and 16 seconds. A game that looked like a white knuckler that would come down to the final possession had fans filing for the exits with over a minute to go. Baylor let the moment get to them, Duke did not.

Rebounding was the key, especially late. Josh Lomers, who was so good against Omar Samhan Friday night played just 9 minutes and fouled out early. Thats a big reason why Duke had 19 offensive rebounds. So many of those big buckets in the last 3 minutes for Duke came off of offensive rebounds. You have to think if Lomers is in the game, that probably doesn't happen.

Here are the postgame press conferences for each team:

Duke

Baylor

Lakers coast after big 2nd quarter

2010-03-27T23:17:00.005-05:00

The Rockets looked great in the first quarter, and actually led 34-27, but the 2nd was a Saint Mary's like disaster. The Lakers went on a 20-0 run and outscored the Rockets 35-11, and pretty much coasted the rest of the way. The only reason it was an 8 point game was because the Rockets outscored LA 32-20 in the 4th. Phil Jackson said he wasn't happy with the win because of the 4th quarter, but they were up 20 going into it, so I'm assuming he was pleased with the balance of the game.

Kobe only had 17 points, and most were on jumpers. He only took 2 shots in the paint, and he missed them both. He only took 3 free throws, but he really didn't need to do that much because Pau Gasol was dominating. He had 30 points and 8 boards. Derek Fisher as well as I've seen him play in a couple of years. Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown also shot the ball well, which has to be an encouraging sign for the Lakers. Sasha Vujacic did not play.

The Rockets had a lot of guys in street clothes as Battier, Martin, Andersen, and Jeffries didn't play. Jermaine Taylor was impressive in his first career start, and Kobe Bryant was also impressed with his aggressiveness. Jordan Hill was also productive once again. You can hear what Phil Jackson, Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol had to say after the game.

Kobe Bryant

Pau Gasol

Phil Jackson

While the kids rested the soap opera came to town

2010-03-27T19:07:00.002-05:00

The traveling circus known as the Lakers is in town tonight to play the Rockets who are down to about 8 healthy players... and Hilton Armstrong. The Rockets have had a brutal week, and it doesn't help that Shane Battier and Kevin Martin will be out once again. The Rockets have 11 games out and are 6 back in the loss column for the 8 seed, so they are basically playing out the string.

The Lakers have a cloud over them right now, and its not like they are playing poorly, there is just a lot of outside stuff going on with them right now. You have Phil Jackson talking about leaving after the season, Kobe is angry about his contract, Ron Artest is saying that Trevor Ariza is a better fit with the Lakers, and Andrew Bynum is hurt. Hey, nobody said repeating is easy.

I'll be tweeting during the game @AdamSpolane, but one thing I will tell you now is Jermaine Taylor will start for the Rockets.

Final thoughts from Reliant Stadium

2010-03-27T02:10:00.002-05:00

Here are some final thoughts I have from the South Regional Semifinals, and also some thoughts looking ahead to Sunday's final between Duke and Baylor:

Saint Mary's vs Baylor

I think Baylor won that game the second they came out of the tunnel and saw the crowd. You could just see on their faces how big a lift that was. Baylor isn't used to the enormous crowds being in their favor.

Josh Lomers was sensational defensively, and was even better on the glass with 6 offensive rebounds.

Fred Ellis, Quincy Acy, and A.J. Walton combined to shoot 9-12 for 21 points off the bench for Baylor.

The Baylor bench came into today's game accounting for just over 5% of the Bear's offense, they accounted for almost a third of it against Saint Mary's.

Omar Samhan is not an NBA player. He has good touch around the basket, but he's not athletic enough. There is no way he is 6-11 either.

An NBA team should give Ben Allen a look. Ya, he's got to get stronger/tougher, but he can really shoot the ball and he's legit 6-11.

Dumbest question of the day came from a reporter asking the Saint Mary's players if it was a moral victory winning the second half.

Purdue vs Duke

This Purdue team reminded me a lot of the Rockets last season after Yao got hurt. They just didn't have enough offense to finish what would've been a shocking upset.

Purdue was awful on the boards. I never thought I would see this Duke team out rebound someone by 23. Even more shocking that the team they did it to was Purdue.

For as bad as Scheyer and Nolan Smith were in the first half, they were as good in the 2nd.

Kyle Singler saved Duke with the first half he played.

Speaking of Singler, if I'm an NBA team picking at the end of the first round why wouldn't I pick him? He does too many things well, and he's 6-8, not 6-2.

I don't think people will realize how big a loss Chris Kramer will be for Purdue until Big 10 play starts in January.

Duke vs Baylor

Duke should wear the road jersey's because this will be a road game. Baylor could fans could top the 50,000 mark, plus all the alums of other Texas schools that will be in attendance will be rooting hard for Baylor as well.

The Lomers/Zoubek matchup is incredibly intriguing.

Should be interesting to see how Baylor changes its defense. Duke gets most of its points from the perimeter as opposed to SMC which got a lot of points from the paint.

Duke needs to slow this game down. They don't have the athletes to matchup with Baylor.

Duke press conference

2010-03-27T00:38:00.002-05:00

Here is the Duke press conference after the Devils beat Purdue. Again sorry for no picture, but to make up for it, early on in the press conference Coach K jumps all over a reporter when he was questioning Singler and Scheyer. Your welcome.

The good stuff occurs at 3:35

Purdue press conference

2010-03-27T00:29:00.003-05:00

Here is the Purdue press conference after their loss to Duke. Sorry I forgot to take a picture during it:

Baylor press conference

2010-03-26T22:45:00.005-05:00

Here is Baylor's press conference after beating Saint Mary's:

Saint Mary's press conference

2010-03-26T22:41:00.003-05:00

Here is Saint Mary's press conference after their loss to Baylor:

Kramer's gone wild

2010-03-26T22:31:00.003-05:00

Chris Kramer took a very hard fall a few minutes, and during the ensuing timeout Chris Kramer's family decided to come down from their seats and berate the officals. Both his mother, father, and brother were loudly cursing at the officials. His brother called one of them a pussy. A few minutes later Kraer's mother was yelling at a fan. Classy crew.

Notes on Purdue

2010-03-26T19:31:00.001-05:00

In going through the Purdue game notes the following nuggets caught my interest:

The Boilermakers are 4-2 all-time vs Duke.

Purdue has won 12 straight first round NCAA Tournament games.

Purdue’s 29 wins tied for the school record.

Purdue has won over 100 games the last 4 seasons. That is the first time that has happened. The previous mark which they did twice in the 90’s. They have won 103 coming into tonight’s game.

The Boilermakers have beaten 4 top-10 teams this season. Duke is ranked #3 coming into tonight.

Purdue is holding opponents to under 39% shooting the last 15 games.

Notes on Duke

2010-03-26T19:29:00.001-05:00

In going through the Duke game notes the following nuggets caught my interest:

Duke is making its 11^th Sweet 16 appearance in the last 13 years. They didn’t make it in 2007 or ’08.

Miles and Mason Plumlee’s mother played at Purdue.

Duke is 26-1 when leading at halftime.

Duke is 2-6 in its last 8 Regional Semifinals. Both wins resulted in Final Four appearances.

Duke is 2-4 all time in NCAA games played in Texas.

Former Duke players are combining to make over $82 million in the NBA this season, the most in the nation.

Follow me on Twitter @AdamSpolane

2010-03-26T18:21:00.002-05:00

Instead of blog posts, I will be posting updates, anecdotes, and oberservations from the South Regional Semifinals.

http://twitter.com/AdamSpolane

Notes on Baylor

2010-03-26T17:41:00.008-05:00

In going through the Baylor game notes the following nuggets caught my interest:

This is the first Sweet 16 that Baylor has ever made, but they have been to 2 Final Fours (1948 and 1950).

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985 there have only been 3 father/son coaching duos to reach the Sweet 16- John Thompson/John Thompson III, Dick Bennett/Tony Bennett, Homer Drew/Scott Drew.

Baylor is 3-5 against teams from the West Coast Conference.

Baylor is playing Saint Mary’s for the first time. This marks the 13^th time Baylor is playing a team for the first time in the last two seasons. They are 11-1 the previous 12 games.

Baylor has lost 7 games this season, none by more than 7 points.

Notes on St. Mary's

2010-03-26T17:36:00.002-05:00

In going through the Saint Mary’s game notes the following nuggets caught my interest:

The Gael’s are 3-13 all-time against teams from the Big 12, they have lost their last 8.

Head coach Randy Bennett is 0-3 against Big 12 teams.

Ben Allen has scored in double figures 19 of the Gael’s 33 games. They have won all 19 games

The Saint Mary’s starters have accounted for 82.7% of its offense.
In its two tournament games, Saint Mary’s starters have scored 146 of 155 points (94.2%).
Saint Mary’s 28 wins is tied for the school record, so a win tonight would break the school record.

Live from the South Regional

2010-03-26T17:16:00.002-05:00

They have just begun letting fans into Reliant Stadium as we get ready for the South Regional Semifinals. Game 1 will be Baylor/Saint Mary's and it will be followed by Duke/Purdue.

I like both Baylor and Duke tonight. I think that Baylor's size will cause problems for Samham and could get him in foul trouble. I know he played through it against Nova. I also think the crowd could be an advantage. This is going to be a big Baylor crowd tonight, and it will be larger Sunday if Baylor moves on. I don't think Purdue will be able to score enough points against Duke. I know they play great defense, but Chris Kramer can't shutdown Scheyer/Singer/Smith by himself.

It really is too bad that A&M couldn't beat Purdue, otherwise this place would really be a madhouse with A&M and Baylor fans. As you can tell, the setup is quite strange with the elevated floor placed at the 50 yard line. They have actually put stands in with seats over the actual Reliant Stadium seats on the lower level.

I should be able to blog throughout both games. I might have a lull in the beginning of the Duke/Purdue game, but I will keep you posted.

Kansas State/BYU Postgame press conferences

2010-03-22T02:53:00.002-05:00

I know its late, but I thought I would post the press conferences from after the KState/BYU game from Saturday night. The KState press conference with Frank Martin and Jacob Pullen was pretty entertaining. I'll be honest, I didn't get to see much of this game because I was finishing up my postgame work for the KU/NIU game, but from what I did see, I was impressed with KState. I thought they played outstanding defense, especially on Jimmer Fredette.

Kansas State

BYU

Northern Iowa shocks the world

2010-03-20T21:11:00.003-05:00

The odds on favorite to win the tournament won't even make it to the second week, as Kansas was upset by Northern Iowa. I thought Northern Iowa would be able to keep it close, but I didn't think they would actually win the game. Its not like they shot lights out, just 40% from the field and 35% from 3, but they defended well, and didn't turn the ball over, they had only 9. Its a gutsy team that is led by a group of gutsy seniors, including Ali Farokhmanesh who is emerging as a star in this tournament.

You feel bad for Kansas, they just couldn't get over the hump and take a lead to grab momentum. They led 2-0 when they scored on their first possession, they never led again. Northern Iowa was able to make enough plays at the right times to hang on.

Here are the press conferences from each team:

Northern Iowa

Kansas

Live: Northern Iowa/Kansas 2nd half

2010-03-20T17:47:00.012-05:00

Here is the thread for the 2nd half of KU/NIU:

Kansas starts the half with a bucket and a stop. Aldrich makes plays on both ends. They need to go back to him.

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Marcus Morris called for an offensive foul, his 3rd. No complaints from the KU crowd. Eglseder gives NIU a 10 point lead, Collins misses a 3 at the other end.

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Good start to the half for NIU. They get to the first media timeout and extend its lead by 2 points. The Northern Iowa second unit has been the unsung hero of this game.

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After a Henry 3 to cut it to 7, KU plays great D and forces a 3 at the end of the shot clock, but can't get the rebound. Lead back to 9. NIU hasn't let Kansas go on any runs.

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NIU is 20-0 when scoring more than 60 points. They have 61.

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5-0 run for NIU. They lead by 12 with 12:31 left. Warm up the shredders for a few million brackets .

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Good timeout by NIU coach Ben Jacobson after KU scores 4 straight to cut it to 8. By the way, Jacobson is 39, and has a .674 win pct in 4 seasons at NIU.

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After the timeout, Kerwin Dunham hits a bucket and gets fouled. Again, every time it looks like Kansas is going to go on a big run, NIU makes something happen.

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Cole Aldrich comes off limping. Looked like he came down on his ankle funny under the basket.

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NIU misses another open 3, but again, Lucas O'Rear gets another offensive rebound. Northern Iowa is now in the bonus with a 7-point lead. 6:54 left.

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NIU has scored 2 points in the last 4:30. Lead down to 5, closest its been in this half.

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Major onions by soph Johnny Moran for UNI. Knocks down a 3 to get the lead back to 6, Panthers get a stop on the other end. The lead by 6 with the ball at the last media timeout.

Live: Northern Iowa/Kansas first half

2010-03-20T16:42:00.011-05:00

Jordan Eglseder scores on NIU's first 2 trips down, but not in the paint. Hit a 3, and a long 2. Now Ahelegbhe draws a foul slashing inside and makes both free throws. Great start for the Panthers.

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Johnny Moran knocks down a 3 for NIU, 10-2 Panthers. Timeout Kansas, they are off to a slow start for the second straight game, although today they are playing a team that can actually beat them. Key stat to remember- NIU hasn't lost this season when scoring more than 60 points. They are 1/6 of the way there in 2 1/2 minutes.

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Tyrel Reed checks in for KU, he hit 4 threes against Lehigh.

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17-12 NIU going into the second media timeout. KU has been whistled for 6 fouls, NIU 0. The Kansas crowd, and radio crew, which is right in front of me are not happy. Ben Jacobson was able to sit Eglseder for about 5 minutes. Big key right now is that he has 0 fouls. All 6 Kansas fouls have been called on different players.

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Loudest ovation of the night comes on the first foul called against NIU. 2nd and 3rd calls come shortly after to equally as loud ovations. Its Kansas vs the officials. Jayhawks down by just 3.

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8:46 left, NIU hasn't scored since the 11:45 mark.

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Reed hits his 2nd 3. Ben Jacobson imploring Faroukmanesh to stay with him. Eglseder comes back and hits his 2nd 3 of the night, and 3rd all season. Not sure if that was in the game plan.

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Panthers 6/9 from 3. Faroukmanesh is 3/3. They lead by 7.

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Faroukmanesh hits another jumper. Panthers up 9. Timeout Kansas. They are doing everything better than Kansas.

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Northern Iowa leads by 8 at halftime. Kansas letting the officials distract them. Sherron Collins wouldn't leave the floor after the buzzer, instead choosing to jaw at an official, should've been T'd up. A perfect half for Northern Iowa, they have a decent sized lead, and nobody is in foul trouble. Ben Jacobson was also able to use his normal rotation, so only 2 players had to play for more than 11 minutes in the first half. Kansas will get the ball to start the half after a late jump ball. Jump ball with 3 seconds left gave NIU the ball, but they were unable to get off a shot, a bit of a break for KU. During the second half I will blog in a different post.

#1 Kansas vs #9 Northern Iowa

2010-03-20T16:15:00.003-05:00

I'm at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City for KU/NIU and later KState/BYU. I'm going to blog live during the first game, and will try to do so late in the second game. I think Northern Iowa can play with Kansas and keep it close especially if Kansas defends the way it did Thursday against Lehigh. I think the keys for the Panthers will be Jordan Eglseder holding his own down low against Cole Aldrich, and Kwadzo Ahelegbe has got to stay out of foul trouble. He is really the only threat NIU has to penetrate inside, he has got to be able to do this so KU isn't able to take away the 3-point line.

This is basically going to be a Kansas home game even though Northern Iowa traveled pretty well. I don't believe that the arena will be sold out. I don't think they sold the top half of the upper deck behind each basket. Thursday the full sections in the upper deck behind the basket were empty. The weather is awful here. 30 degrees and snowing. I took a picture with my Iphone, but I am unable to load in on here right now.

Round 1 conference winners and losers

2010-03-19T23:55:00.002-05:00

Here are my winners and loser from the first round of the tournament by conference:

Winners:

Big 10- Went 4-1, the only team to lose was 11 seeded Minnesota. Wasn't always pretty, but they got it done. Went 5-2 in the first round last year. Second straight year with 4 teams in the second round.

Big 12- Went 5-2, although the 2 losses (Texas and OK State) were disappointing. The conference has a great chance to make up 25% of the Sweet 16.

West Coast Conference- 8th seeded Gonzaga and and 10th seeded Saint Mary's both won rather easily. Saint Mary's proving that the WCC is more than just Gonzaga.

Mountain West- Ya, I know they were just 2-2, but their 2 best teams (New Mexico and BYU) won after losing early in the conference tournament last week, and the 3 and 4 teams (San Diego St and UNLV) lost by 3. A good showing by the conference, which has been average in recent years. The conference has never won more than 2 games before, and 4 teams is the most its ever had.

Ivy League- Hard to believe a team from the Ivy wins in the tournament and its not Princeton or Penn.

Ohio Valley- Murray State is the first OVC non play-in win since 1989.

MAC- Just think, if the 9th best team (Ohio) in the conference can slaughter the Big East Tourney runner-up, what could teams 1-8 do in Big East?

Losers:

Big East- Fortunately Syracuse, West Virginia, and Pitt played well, but losing half of its 8 teams is inexcusable.

SEC- Went 2-2, lost 4th seeded Vandy, and 6th seeded Tennessee was almost taken to overtime by SD State.

Atlantic 10- Got 3 teams in the tournament seeded 7th and higher, lost 2 of them, both were clobbered by mid-majors (Richmond by Saint Mary's, Temple by Cornell).

WAC- Went 0-2. They are now just 2-10 in the last 6 tournaments. Both wins by Nevada.

Conference USA- Lost both games they played by double digits. CUSA has not had a team other than Memphis win a tourney game since 2005 when UAB, Louisville, and Cincinnati won games, the last 2 teams are now in the Big East.

Live from Oklahoma City

2010-03-18T10:02:00.002-05:00

Welcome to the NCAA Tournament. I'm covering the games this weekend in Oklahoma City where today I'll see BYU/Florida followed by North Texas/Kansas State. Then tonight it will be UNLV/Northern Iowa followed by Kansas/Leigh. BYU/Florida will open the tournament, so all eyes will be on the Ford Center, at least for about 5 minutes.

Florida is playing in its first tournament game since winning back-to-back titles in '06 and '07, BYU is just glad they don't have to play Texas A&M in the first round. The player to watch in this game is BYU's Jimmer Fredette, who Billy Dovovan said is more dangerous than John Wall.

In game 2 North Texas, who is basically playing about 2 hours away from its campus in Denton, Texas will try and become the 5th 15 seed to win a tournament game, as they will take on Kansas State. Right now Leigh is shooting around as we are a little over an hour away from tip off of the first game. I will try and post press conference audio from all 4 games, likely won't be able to blog during games, at least the day session. I will be doing updates on WFAN starting at 12:20 eastern time, every 20 minutes during the afternoon games. Those updates will also be on the YES Network.

South Region Picks

2010-03-17T23:38:00.003-05:00

Here are my picks for the South Region
By the way, my championship game is Kansas over West Virginia

East Region Picks

2010-03-17T23:23:00.002-05:00

Here are my picks for the East region:

West Region Picks

2010-03-17T23:22:00.003-05:00

Here are my picks for the West Region (By the way, I have BYU beating Xavier in the Sweet 16):

Midwest Region Picks

2010-03-17T23:10:00.003-05:00

Here are my picks for the Midwest region:

Brooks/Martin/Scola snap Nuggets win streak

2010-03-15T23:38:00.004-05:00

The Rockets have had a Big 3 on a few occasions over the last 15 years. There was the Olajuwon/Barkley/Drexler team, the Olajuwon/Barkley/Pippen team, then a decade later it was Yao/McGrady/Artest, and now you have the Martin/Brooks/Scola version of the big 3 who helped lead the Rockets to a 125-123 win over Denver. The 3 combined for 83 points and were instrumental in overcoming an 11 point 4th quarter deficit. The Rockets are on their biggest win streak since December, and the new big 3 have been sensational, and its only a matter of time before Martin and Brooks are talked about as being one of the best back courts in the NBA. Here is postgame reaction from what was a very entertaining game:

Rockets head coach Rick Adelman

Rockets guard Aaron Brooks

Nuggets guard Chauncey Billups

Nuggets forward Carmelo Anthony