Game 3: The swing game

I have given you the percentages for teams after winning games 1 and 2 of a best of seven series. Now I will give you the percentages for teams after winning game 3 of a 1-1 series. As I told you earlier, in the last 22 years, 88 series have been tied 1-1. The team that wins game 3 has gone onto win the series 77.3% (68/88) of the time. Here it is broken down further:

When the home teams wins game 3 they win the series 67.4% (29/43) of the time.

When the road team wins and steals back the home court advantage, they win the series 86.7% (39/45) of the time.

It is important to note that the road team has won more than half of the game 3's in these split series.