Win percentages after game 2 of a best of 7 series

Earlier in the week I went through the last 211 best of 7 NBA playoff series, and I gave you the winning percentages for the team that has home court advantage following game 1. I will repeat the info here, and add what the percentages are following game 2.

In the last 211 best of 7 series the home team won game one 159 times. 140 of those teams won the series (88%).

When the team with home court advantage took a 2-0 series lead they won the series 93.3% of the time (113/121)

In the last 211 best of 7 series the road team won game one 52 times, 30 of those teams won the series (58%).

Just 10 of those 52 teams would go home with a 2-0 series lead, 7 of those teams held on and won the series (2005 Houston lost to Dallas in 7 games after winning games 1 and 2 in Dallas, and 1994 Phoenix lost to Houston in 7 games after winning games 1 and 2 in Houston.)

Of the last 211 best of 7 series, 80 have been split after 2 games. The team that began the series with the home court advantage won the series 49 times (61.3%)

Don’t be fooled by the 10 times in 20 years when it comes to the road team winning the first 2 games, it is much more rare than once every 2 years. I happened 4 times in a 3 year stretch from ’93-’95. The Rockets have been involved in both cases of a team blowing a 2-0 lead going home, they have actually been involved in 5 of the 10 series.

In 1995 they won the first 2 games on the road of the Western Conference Finals against San Antonio, and they took the first 2 games of the Finals in Orlando. They lost the first 2 games at home in 2008 against Utah. The teams that came back after losing the first 2 games at home each won the next 3, would lose on the road in game 6, and then win game 7 at home.

Updated first round predictions

Each series has played 2 games, and as I have done now for a few years, I have updated my predictions on all 8 series. The only flip-flop that I have on the actual winner of the series is Dallas/Portland. I change the number of games a series will go in 4 of the other 7.

#1 Chicago vs #8 Indiana

Just like I predicted, the Pacers have been frisky; it just wasn't enough to win a game in Chicago. This series has been a lot of fun to watch because of how hard the Pacers play, and the Bulls have matched that intensity. There is just such a big talent disparity, so I still cannot see the Pacers winning a game, especially with Darren Collinson being iffy for the games at Conseco. The Bulls should be concerned because they haven't looked great.

Prediction before series: Bulls in 4

Prediction after 2 games: Bulls in 4

#2 Miami vs #7 Philadelphia

Much like the Bulls/Pacers series there is such a big talent disparity. As Doug Collins said after game 2, Miami is just better, and when they play well, his team can't win. Miami is just a bad matchup for Philly. I thought the Sixers could win a game in this series, but I don't see it now.

Prediction before series: Heat in 5

Prediction after 2 games: Heat in 4

#3 Boston vs #6 New York

Two terrific games in Boston that the Celts pulled out, now the Knicks are beaten up heading home, with Billups and Stoudemire hurt. You have to wonder if the Knicks fired their two best shots in Boston. Celtics haven’t looked great, but like Chicago, they have come up big in big moments. When you are the Knicks, and you are clearly playing a superior team, you have to take advantage of the chances you get, and the Knicks haven’t done that. There is no guarantee they get the same chances down the stretch they got in Boston.

Prediction before series: Celtics in 5

Prediction after 2 games: Celtics in 5

#4 Orlando vs #5 Atlanta

Dwight Howard has been dominant through 2 games, the guys around him have been bad, and Atlanta has shot the ball well, but the series is tied 1-1. The Hawks have been content letting Howard do what he wants, and it should be interesting to see if they continue that strategy. I think I’d rather let the guys around him try and beat me. Atlanta has looked good thus far, but I don’t know if they can continue to shoot lights out.

Prediction before series: Magic in 5

Prediction after 2 games: Magic in 6

Western Conference

#1 San Antonio vs #8 Memphis

San Antonio didn’t have Manu Ginobli in game 1 and they lost, he was back for game 2 and they won. He should be the difference the rest of the way. I said before the series that I thought the Spurs would figure out a way to slow Zack Randolph, and they did a good job in game 2, but nobody else stepped up. The perimeter players are going to be the key for Memphis the rest of the series.

Prediction before series: Spurs in 6

Prediction after 2 games: Spurs in 6

#2 LA Lakers vs #7 New Orleans

New Orleans shocked everyone and beat LA in game 1, but despite Kobe Bryant scoring just 11 points, the Lakers evened the series. The Hornets play very good defense, and that will keep them in games, and they will force the Lakers to grind out wins, but as I said before the series, the Lakers are just a bad matchup for New Orleans. I don’t think the Hornets will win another game.

Prediction before series: Lakers in 4

Prediction after 2 games: Lakers in 5

#3 Dallas vs #6 Portland.

Dallas is up 2-0 in a series for the first time since the 2006 NBA Finals, which saw them lose four straight, but I’d be shocked if that happened in this series. Dallas has shot the ball well, and played great in the fourth quarter of both games. They have also defended great, packing everything inside, forcing Portland to hit outside shots, which they can’t do. The Blazers simply haven’t been able to get many easy shots in the half court. I’m just not sure how any of that changes for the Blazers. Their best hope is for Dallas to start missing shots. Portland is a tough place to play, and I can certainly see the series being even heading back to Dallas, but I wonder if Portland is capable of winning a game at Dallas. I’m not so sure.

Prediction before series: Blazers in 6

Prediction after 2 games: Mavericks in 5

#4 Oklahoma City vs #5 Denver

As great as game 1 was between these teams, game two was just as awful. You can argue that Denver should’ve won the first game, but they didn’t, and they didn’t back up that performance up last night. The Nuggets are deep, but they are lacking a big time scorer, and they are going up against two of them. The next two games will be all about seeing of the Thunder can win a road playoff game. They don’t need to in order to win this series, but I think they will, and it very well could vault them to a deep playoff run.

Prediction before series: Thunder in 6

Prediction after 2 games: Thunder in 5

Why Game 1 is so important

All weekend you heard about the importance of winning the first game of a playoff series. It is true that the winner of game 1 wins the series about 80% of the time, but I dug a little deeper. In all, I took the last 211 best of 7 NBA playoff series, which goes back 21 years.

170 of the 211 teams that won game 1 went on to win the series, which is 80.6%. I then separated the series into two categories: the first being when the home team wins game 1, the second being when to road team wins game 1. Here is what I found:

In the last 211 best of 7 series the home team won game one 159 times. 140 of those teams won the series (88%).

In the last 211 best of 7 series the road team won game one 52 times. Only 30 of those teams won the series (58%).

What is also important to note is that in the last 211 best of seven series, the team with the home court advantage has won 162 times (77%).

It’s not hard to figure out why these numbers are the way they are. The team with home court is in most cases the better team. The reason why only 19 teams with home court have lost a series after winning game is that you are asking an inferior team to win 4 of the next 6 games. Its hard enough for those teams to win 3 of 6, as you can see by close to half of the road teams losing a series after winning game 1.

So while its just game 1, and it’s a long series, you can argue that the first game is the most important. It sets the tone for the rest of the series.

I also have percentages of what happens in a series after 2 games, and I will post it tomorrow.

NBA First Round Playoff Picks

Here are my pre-series first round NBA Playoff predictions. I went 11-4 in my pre-series picks last year. Remember, I will make new predictions after each series has completed two games. The schedule is a little strange this year because the all 4 East series will be done with or almost done with their game 2’s before the West series start theirs, so I will post new East predictions on Tuesday night, and West picks by Thursday afternoon.

Eastern Conference

#1 Chicago vs #8 Indiana

It’s a battle between the top 2 teams in the Central division. Ok, that might be a little misleading since the Bulls won the division by 25 games. Indiana is in the playoffs despite winning just 37 games, and I don’t expect that number to increase over the next week. The Pacers might be a little frisky, and they have been doing a little talking, but I’d be surprised if they don’t get swept. Chicago’s defense really gave Indiana problems during the regular season, and with the pace of the game’s slowing down in the postseason I think those struggles will only get worse. Best chance for Indiana to win a game will be on nights when the Bulls wings can’t hit shots. They have to be able to capitalize on that, but simply put they just don’t have the talent to hang with Chicago.

Prediction: Bulls in 4

#2 Miami vs #7 Philadelphia

I like the Sixers, especially their guards, but talent wise I don’t think they have enough to push Miami. Philly’s big challenge will be taking care of the ball against the Heat pressure defense. Fortunately for them, they are among the best in the league at taking care of the ball. I just don’t think the Sixers will be able to get enough from their perimeter scorers. I also don’t think that they can hurt Miami inside, plus the Sixers have nobody to stop Dwayne Wade. Philly can win a game in this series, but I don’t see it going longer than 5.

Prediction: Heat in 5

#3 Boston vs #6 New York

I made the mistake of picking against Boston when they finished 27-27 last year, I won’t do it again, at least in this series. The Knicks are probably the worst defensive team in the playoffs, and against a team that executes like Boston I don’t see them getting any stops at the end of games. The Knicks will win a game or maybe even two solely on the talent of Anthony and Stoudemire, along with the Madison Square Garden atmosphere, but it won’t be enough to get them wins in Boston.

Prediction: Celtics in 5

#4 Orlando vs #5 Atlanta

Last year, this was the most lopsided non-first round series I have ever seen. Don’t think that will be the case this season, but Orlando should still win. The big reason why Orlando owned Atlanta last year was Jameer Nelson torching Mike Bibby. Well, Bibby is gone, and Kirk Hinrich is a much better defender, but the Hawks still aren’t that good defensively. The big challenge for Orlando will be dealing with the 3-headed monster of Al Horford, Jason Collins, and Zaza Pachulia, and they are capable of taking Howard out of games. He can’t get frustrated fighting for position against them because Marcin Gortat isn’t behind him anymore, and their defense fall off dramatically. All that being said, Atlanta finished the regular season terribly, looking disinterested, only they don’t have a championship pedigree to fall back on.

Prediction: Magic in 5

Western Conference

#1 San Antonio vs #8 Memphis

Never thought I would see the day when in a series between the Spurs and Grizzlies, Memphis would be the better defensive team, but they are. Memphis will be a problem for San Antonio, especially if Ginobli misses games. The Spurs aren’t that good inside, and Memphis with Randolph and Gasol can really give them problems, but I don’t think Memphis is good enough along the perimeter. They are going to need OJ Mayo to have a big season, and he was bad this season. The Spurs will try and take Randolph out of the offense making it key that guys like Tony Allen and Shane Battier knock down shots. Big problem for Memphis will be stopping Tony Parker. I don’t think Mike Conley is up to it. Also, Memphis, a franchise that has never won a playoff game, tanked its final two regular season games in hopes of playing San Antonio. I think that may backfire.

Prediction: Spurs in 6

#2 LA Lakers vs #7 New Orleans

The Lakers catch every break, as they are able to avoid both Memphis and Portland, which puts them up against a very average New Orleans team. Chris Paul is a bad matchup is a bad matchup for the Lakers, but nobody else is. New Orleans is too small inside, and their wings simply can’t score enough. LA was pushed in the first round last year, they won’t be this time around.

Prediction: Lakers in 4

#3 Dallas vs #6 Portland.

Since losing to the Heat in the Finals 5 years ago, the Mavs have gotten out of the first round just once. Why? Because they haven’t had a viable #2 option, that remains the case this season. Jason Kidd and Jason Terry finished the season in shooting slumps, and Shawn Marion and Tyson Chandler are too reliant on other people to help them score. The size and length of Portland will give Dallas problems, especially the guards. Portland isn’t a great offensive team, but they are more versatile, and can create more matchup problems than Dallas can. The Mavs are tough to play against when you don’t have time to prepare for them, but in a series, when you get used to them, the matchup isn’t quite as daunting. The Dirk/Aldridge matchup should be fun, as will Camby/Chandler.

Prediction: Blazers in 6

#4 Oklahoma City vs #5 Denver

Its almost like the Nuggets are playing the team they used to be when it was Carmelo/Iverson and Carmelo/Billups. Denver is banged up, and you have to think they are a little physically and mentally exhausted after what has been a great run for them since the Anthony trade. Should be a great/physical matchup between Perkins and Nene, but OK City beat Denver twice down the stretch. Denver reminds me a little of Phoenix last year with their depth, but had guys with bigger upsides. Best two players in this series play for the Thunder, and they will likely play more than 40 minutes a game.

Prediction: Thunder in 6

EXCLUSIVE: Mike Davis front runner for Miami job

According to a Miami source, The University of Miami has asked for and been given permission to speak with UAB head coach Mike Davis about becoming the next Miami basketball coach, replacing Frank Haith who left for Missouri on Monday. He is the first candidate that Miami has asked to speak with, and appears to be the front runner to land the Hurricanes job.

Davis, 50, just completed his fifth season with the Blazers, leading the team to the NCAA Tournament, and a Conference USA regular season title. He has compiled a record of 107-57 since taking over for Mike Anderson, who left after the 2006 for Missouri. UAB hasn’t finished outside the top 3 in Conference USA since Davis’s first season in Birmingham.

Prior UAB, Davis replaced Bob Knight as the head coach at Indiana. He went 115-79 in six seasons at Indiana, leading the Hoosiers to the National Championship Game in 2002, upsetting Duke and Oklahoma in the process. In February of 2006 he announced that he would not be returning to Indiana for a 7^th season. He would be the 14^th coach in Miami’s history.

After Haith’s resignation Monday, the name that immediately came to the forefront to replace him was Kansas State head coach Frank Martin because of his deep Miami roots. Martin, the son of Cuban immigrants was born in Miami, and he coached at various Miami area high schools for 15 years, winning 3-straight state championships at Miami High School in 1996-98, but as I reported earlier this week, Miami officials, including school president Donna Shalala were scared off by Martin’s baggage.

Martin was fired from Miami High School in 1999 after the school’s 1998 state championship was vacated due to recruiting violations that involved school employees and boosters. Martin was never accused of wrongdoing, but he was still let go.

The other issue with Martin is money. His contract with Kansas State pays him $1.5 million a year, so the school would have to be able to offer him a raise, something that Miami doesn’t seem interested in doing. Davis makes just over $600 thousand at UAB.

Look for Miami to make a hire early this week. If Davis does not get the job, I’m told the school will look to make a run at current Murray State coach, and former Miami assistant Billy Kennedy or Harvard head coach Tommy Amaker.