Sunday, January 16, 2011

For this Jets fan, today is personal

DISCLAIMER: In this post, I will be breaking one of my golden rules and will be referring to the Jets in the first person. I apologize in advance.

In the run up to the Jets/Colts game last week, Rex Ryan said it was personal between him and Peyton Manning, who has always gotten the best of him in the past. As a Jets fan, I didn’t feel the same way about last week’s game, even though they had beaten us last year in the AFC title game, but I understood where Rex was coming from. To be perfectly honest, I was looking past the Colts. Assuming the Jets got past the Colts, we knew who we’d get next: New England. This one is personal.

Living in Houston, I was an Oilers fan until the very end, which was the ’96 season. I vowed I would not follow them to Tennessee, so I needed a new team. I chose the New York Jets, a team that had combined to win four games the previous two seasons. I was drawn to them because of Keyshawn Johnson, who was drafted #1 overall in the ’96 draft out of USC. After his rookie year when the Jets went 1-15, he wrote a book called Just Give Me the Damn Ball. I thought it was hilarious, putting the word damn in your books title, what middle schooler isn’t going to love that? It didn’t hurt that with Keyshawn and Bill Parcells that the Jets immediately turned things around, narrowly missing the playoffs in ’97 and getting within a half of going to the Super Bowl the next season. I was hooked then, and still am.

In my early Jet years, I was pretty indifferent about the Patriots. I just treated them like a normal division rival. Maybe it was because being in Houston I was disconnected from the whole Boston/New York rivalry. I knew they didn’t like us because we had taken Parcells and Curtis Martin away from them, and they immediately declined to where they were irrelevant for a couple of years. For me, the hatred was all for the Miami Dolphins, or as I referred to them for a while “our little bitches”. Up until the last couple of years, we have owned the series with them, and its always fun watching them lose, even now, despite the fact that they are about as relevant as the Bills. I’m not sure when I started to hate the Pats, but the hate has grown year after year.

Let’s face it, the Jets are responsible for the decade of Pats dominance. Bill Belichick resigned as the Jets coach because the Hess family, who had just given him a million dollars to remain defensive coordinator with the promise of being named head coach when Parcells left, sold the team to Woody Johnson, and wound up taking the Pats job. Then in week 2 of the 2001 season, with all of New England wanting Belichick fired, Jets linebacker Mo Lewis leveled Drew Bledsoe and collapsed his lung, which awoke the long-haired monster known as Tom Brady. The Jets won that game, but have beaten the Pats very few times since.

There have been some big games between these two teams in that span, and seemingly every win has gone their way, and many of those have been blowouts. Both teams were 5-0 when they met in Foxboro in 2004. Pats won. They crushed us in a big battle week 16 that season at the Meadowlands. The won the only playoff game between the two teams in this era back in the 2006 season, and there was the 45-3 embarrassment in December. Sure we have some wins over them in that span, but it seems like they have answered every time in a bigger game. That was the case in 2006, and that was the case this season. Today, the Jets have the chance to answer, and wipe the smug smiles off the face of Brady, Welker, and the rest of them. This time its personal.

Friday, January 14, 2011

Divisional Round Homefield Trends

The Wild Card teams continued their winning ways last week, going 3-1 against the homestanding division champs, now lets examine the importance of home field in divisional round, as the top two teams in each conference enter the fray. This is the 22nd season that the NFL has had this exact playoff format. Teams that have home field in the divisional round are 63-21, which means that on average home teams go 3-1, which was how they fared last year, but the last 4 years prior, home teams were just 7-9, so the first 16 years of this format the home teams were winning at an 83% clip. Anyways, all 4 home teams have won 6 times, and no more than 2 road teams have won 4 times, all 4 have happened in the last 6 years. 2 years ago was the first time that more than 2 home teams have ever lost during one weekend in this round. Here it is broken down further:

#1 Seed AFC- 13-8
#2 Seed AFC- 15-6
#1 Seed NFC- 19-2
#2 Seed NFC- 16-5

  • 3 of the 8 teams that have lost as the #1 seed in the AFC have been coached by Marty Schottenheimer.
  • AFC # 1 seeds that played on Saturday went 9-3, they went 4-5 on Sunday.
  • Home teams are 35-7 (.833) on Saturday, 28-14 on Sunday (.667)
  • Coincidentally the NFC home teams are 35-7 and the AFC home teams are 28-14
  • Peyton Manning has played in 6 divisonal playoff games. In those 6 games the home team is 1-5. He is 0-3 at home, and 2-1 on the road.

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Wild Card Homefield Trends

This is the 9th season of the four division setup in each conference. It has drastically changed the playoffs because there is one less wild card, and it pretty much makes it impossible to play a home playoff without winning your division. We are just hours away from the start of Wild Card Weekend, and here is a trend that I have noticed over the last 8 years (02-09) with the record of home teams in wild card games as opposed to the seven years prior to the realignment (96-01).

2002-2009 Home teams went 18-14 (.563)
1995-2001 Home teams went 22-6 (.786)

I break it down further:
2002-2009 the #4 seeds went 9-7
1995-2001 the #4 seeds went 11-3

2002-2009 the #3 seed went 9-7
1995-2001 the #3 seed went 11-3

Normally, this one is pretty easy to explain. With the extra division the home teams are simply not as good as the teams they are facing. No year better illustrates this then this season. None of the teams hosting playoff games this weekend have better records than their opponents, including a 4-game spread between the Saints and Seahawks.

Remember the 4-5 game was between 2 wild card teams before 2002, so the 4 seed was the better team throughout the regular season thus the 10-2 record.

Here is another interesting note: Two years ago, the Cardinals became the first 4 seed to make it to the Super Bowl since the league expanded to 4 divisions. There have been 2 Wild Cards that have gotten to the Super Bowl in that span (Steelers '05, Giants '07)