The importance of game 5 in a 2-2 series

Tonight's Blazers/Suns game is the first of 2 (possibly 3 if Milwaukee beats Atlanta tonight) game 5's of 2-2 series. Those series have gone from being best of 7 series to now becoming a best of 3. In the last 20 years, 69 of 196 best of 7 series have gone to game 5 tied 2-2, here are the series win percentages:

Before the series, the team with the home court advantage won the series 77% of the time (151/196).

In a 2-2 series, the team with the home court advantage has won the series 75.4% of the time (52/69)

The home team is 54-15 in game 5 (78.3%).

48 of the 54 teams have gone onto win the series (88.9%)

11 of the 15 road teams to win game 5 went onto win the series (73.3)

So that means that the winner of game 5 wins the series 85.5% of the time.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I did not include the NBA Finals in this because the team without home court advantage hosts game 5.

The importance of winning game 3

I have given you the percentages for teams after winning games 1 and 2 of a best of seven series. Now I will give you the percentages for teams after winning game 3 of a 1-1 series. As I told you earlier, in the last 20 years, 75 series have been tied 1-1. The team that wins game 3 has gone onto win the series 77.3% (58/75) of the time. Here it is broken down further:

When the home teams wins game 3 they win the series 68.9% (24/37) of the time.

When the road team wins and steals back the home court advantage, they win the series 89.5% (34/38) of the time.

It is important to note that the road team has won more than half of the game 3's in these split series.

Reevaluating my first round picks

Every series is 2 games in. Like I did last season, I have edited my picks.

Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland vs #8 Chicago
Prediction before series: Cavs in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Cavs in 5

The Bulls are young and feisty and can play with Cleveland. I think its enough to get them a win in Chicago. They will play hard because the last thing they want is to get embarrassed at home.

#2 Orlando vs #7 Charlotte
Prediction before series: Magic in 4
Prediction after 2 games: Magic in 4

Orlando has gotten very little out of Dwight Howard, and they have still won the first 2 games pretty easily. Charlotte just isn’t capable of scoring enough points to make Orlando sweat. I just don’t see them winning a game in this series.

#3 Atlanta vs #6 Milwaukee
Prediction before series: Hawks in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Hawks in 5

The Bucks will have a good crowd at home, and I really would like to see them get a game. They have played hard in both games; they have just fallen behind early. I think they will start strong in one of the 2 games at home, and they will ride the crowd to a win.

#4 Boston vs #5 Miami
Prediction before series: Heat in 6
Prediction after 2 games: Celtics in 5

I really could not have been more wrong about this series. I thought this Heat team was a little better than the team that took Atlanta to game 7 last year. I was wrong. The Celtics have played great defense since the middle of the third quarter in game 1, and Miami can’t get anything going offensively. I’m not even sure if Miami will win a game, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt.

Western Conference
#1 LA Lakers vs #8 Oklahoma City
Prediction before series: Lakers in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Lakers in 5

The Lakers haven’t looked great in either game, but they know how to win close playoff games, and the Thunder hasn’t quite figured it out. I think OK City blows them out in game 3, but the Lakers comeback and win a close game 4, and win game 5 rather easily. That is usually the way a series like this turns out.

#2 Dallas vs #7 San Antonio
Prediction before series: Mavs in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Mavs in 7

I was real disappointed with the way Dallas played in game 2. I’m still not sure if San Antonio is capable of replicating the way they played throughout the rest of the series, but I do think they can at least get a split at home, making this a long series. I think Dallas is better, and in the end they could simply wear down the Spurs, especially if they are able to push tempo.

#3 Phoenix vs #6 Portland
Prediction before series: Suns in 5
Prediction after 2 games: Suns in 5

This one is real hard because it’s hard for me to imagine Portland losing 2 straight home games, but I think Alvin Gentry might have figured some things out in between games 1 and 2. Now Portland is dealing with more injuries, and I just don’t see how they can keep up with Phoenix. I think they caught Phoenix by surprise in game 1, but now that Portland has their attention, the Suns will take care of business.

#4 Denver vs #5 Utah
Prediction before series: Jazz in 6
Prediction after 2 games: Jazz in 6

I don’t feel overly confident in this pick, but I was real impressed by Utah’s toughness in game 2. I don’t see Denver being able to win in Utah, mostly because they have a tendency to lose focus, and you can’t do that on the road in the playoffs.

Win percentages after game 2 in a best-of-7 series

Earlier in the week I went through the last 196 best of 7 NBA playoff series, and I gave you the winning percentages for the team that has home court advantage following game 1. I will repeat the info here, and add what the percentages are following game 2.

In the last 196 best of 7 series the home team won game one 146 times. 130 of those teams won the series (89%).

When the team with home court advantage took a 2-0 series lead they won the series 92.9% of the time (104/112)

In the last 196 best of 7 series the road team won game one 50 times, 29 of those teams won the series (58%).

Just 9 of those 39 teams would go home with a 2-0 series lead, 7 of those teams held on and won the series (2005 Houston lost to Dallas in 7 games after winning games 1 and 2 in Dallas, and 1994 Phoenix lost to Houston in 7 games after winning games 1 and 2 in Houston.)

Of the last 196 best of 7 series, 75 have been split after 2 games. The team that began the series with the home court advantage won the series 47 times (62.3%)

Don’t be fooled by the 9 times in 20 years when it comes to the road team winning the first 2 games, it is much more rare than once every 2 years. I happened 4 times in a 3 year stretch from ’93-’95. The Rockets have been involved in both cases of a team blowing a 2-0 lead going home, they have actually been involved in 5 of the 9 series.

In 1995 they won the first 2 games on the road of the Western Conference Finals against San Antonio, and they took the first 2 games of the Finals in Orlando. They lost the first 2 games at home in 2008 against Utah. The teams that came back after losing the first 2 games at home each won the next 3, would lose on the road in game 6, and then win game 7 at home.

Joakim Noah vs the city of Cleveland

I couldn't stand Joakim Noah when he was at Florida, but since he has come into the NBA I have softened on him. I think he may now be my favorite player after he is continuing to go after the city of Cleveland for sucking. After game 2 he was asked if he regretted what he said about the mistake by the lake. He did not.

I love how he is making the reporters either lie by saying Cleveland is great or admit that he was right. To illustrate how amazing Cleveland is, I thought I would post the Hastily Made Cleveland Tourism Video that was made famous during the Eastern Conference Finals.

Quick thoughts on all 8 game 1's

Remember, I will have new series predictions posted after all 8 game 2's are completed on Wednesday. The teams I picked to win the series went 5-3 in game 1.

Cleveland/Chicago

If that is the Shaq that shows up the rest of the playoffs the the next 2 months are going to be a big waste of time because Cleveland may not lose a game. Remember, missing from the Bulls off of the team that lost to Boston is Ben Gordon, John Salmons and Tyrus Thomas, this Bulls team just isn't good enough.

Orlando/Charlotte

At some point in this postseason if Orlando expects to win the East again they are going to have to get big games out of Vince Carter. They can get away with that now, but they won't be able to in the next round. Hard to believe that Dwight Howard didn't get in double figures in any category while not being in early foul trouble.

Atlanta/Milwaukee

Atlanta is too good right now, especially without Bogut, but as you saw Saturday, Milwaukee will play hard and they will make the Hawks play 48 minutes. Impressive performance by Brandon Jennings who has been a little overhyped since his amazing start. Nice to see someone wasn't overwhelmed by the playoff pressure.

Boston/Miami

Good for Quentin Richardson getting KG suspended, but the rest of the Miami supporting cast has to do more than they did in the second half of game 1. Miami was the much better team the first 30 minutes, but were badly out classes the rest of the way. By the way, it is a problem for the Celtics that their best players were Tony Allen and Glenn Davis.

Lakers/Oklahoma City

Welcome to the Playoffs Thunder! I will echo what I said after the Rockets demolished Portland in game 1 last year: "A playoff game is a little different than playing Memphis on a Tuesday night". They weren't ready for what the Lakers were going to throw at them, and they couldn't recover from a bad first quarter. The Lakers owned them on the boards early, and like I said, Ron Artest bothered Kevin Durant. Positives for Oklahoma City are that Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook will cause LA problems.

Dallas/San Antonio

I really felt bad for Matt Bonner who had know chance against Dirk last night. Thats the big problem for San Antonio, they have no answer for him. It will be interesting to see if Tony Parker starts game 2, and how much does Richard Jefferson even play, when Pop said a lot of his guys played like Dogs, I'm pretty sure he meant RJ.

Phoenix/Portland

Can the Blazers get 3 more? I don't know, but they could. Phoenix has got to figure out a way to stop Miller and Bayless. The problem with that is, I don't think they do. Nash certainly can't, Jason Richardson could maybe slow one down, but its not like they have anyone off the bench who can. I think Phoenix needs to look to playing small to help free up Amare. Let him guard Camby and put Jared Dudley or Grant Hill on Aldridge, its not like Aldridge plays like a 7 footer.

Denver/Utah

Without Mehmet Okur, Denver will be able to pack the paint making life more difficult on Carlos Boozer and Paul Milsaps. Their also won't be as much free space in the paint for Deron Williams to operate. The CJ Miles injury might have been the most crushing loss for the Jazz in game 1, because without Andrei Kirilenko, the Jazz have nobody who can slow down Carmelo Anthony, as we saw in the 4th quarter of game 1. Utah also needs to do a better job of playing JR Smith tigher.

The Curse of Grant Hill

When you talk about the best players in the NBA who have never won a playoff series the first name you come to is Tracy McGrady, but we have seem to forgotten another big name, in fact he was a teammate of McGrady's, although they never actually played in a playoff game together. That of course is Grant Hill who never won a playoff series in Detroit, appeared in just one playoff series with Orlando, after McGrady was traded, and lost his only playoff series with Phoenix 2 years ago. Here are Grant Hill's playoff results and stats:

With Detroit

1996: Swept by Orlando

1997: Lost 3-2 to Atlanta

1999: Lost 3-2 to Atlanta

2000: Swept by Miami

With Orlando

2007: Swept by Detroit

Did not play in the 2001, 02 and 03 playoffs.

With Phoenix

2008: Lost 4-1 to San Antonio

Year	Team	GP	GS	MPG	FG%	3P%	FT%	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	PPG
1995–96	Detroit	3	3	38.3	.564	.500	.857	7.3	3.7	1.0	.0	19.0
1996–97	Detroit	5	5	40.6	.437	.000	.718	6.8	5.4	.8	1.0	23.6
1998–99	Detroit	5	5	35.2	.457	.000	.813	7.2	7.4	2.0	.4	19.4
1999–00	Detroit	2	2	27.5	.375	.500	.900	5.5	4.5	.5	.0	11.0
2006–07	Orlando	4	4	35.8	.500	.000	.667	5.5	3.8	.5	.2	15.0
2007–08	Phoenix	3	2	22.7	.455	.000	1.000	5.3	1.0	.7	.3	3.7
Career		22	21	34.5	.465	.400	.752	6.4	4.6	1.0	.4	16.6

Hill's lack of playoff success was talked about a lot when he played for the Pistons, but really hasn't been mentioned since he left, mostly because he had the long playoff drought because of injuries. You notice he only played in 2 games in 2000, he re-injured his foot in that series, which basically killed the prime of his career. Also memorable about that 2000 series against Miami- Game 1 was played at noon eastern time on a Saturday, the previous night, the Feds burst into a Miami home and confiscated Elian Gonzales and sent him back to Cuba. There were riots in the streets of Miami near American Airlines Arena which kept many fans from getting inside.

The importance of Game 1

You heard all weekend about the importance of winning the first game of a playoff series. Its is true that the winner of game 1 wins the series about 80% of the time, but I dug a little deeper. In all, I took the last 196 best of 7 NBA playoff series, which goes back 20 years.

159 of the 196 teams that won game 1 went on to win the series, which is 81.1%. I then separated the series into two categories: the first being when the home team wins game 1, the second being when to road team wins game 1. Here is what I found:

In the last 196 best of 7 series the home team won game one 146 times. 130 of those teams won the series (89%).

In the last 196 best of 7 series the road team won game one 50 times. Only 29 of those teams won the series (58%).

What is also important to note is that in the last 196 best of seven series, the team with the home court advantage has won 151 times (77%).

It’s not hard to figure out why these numbers are the way they are. The team with home court is in most cases the better team. The reason why only 16 teams with home court have lost a series after winning game is that you are asking an inferior team to win 4 of the next 6 games. Its hard enough for those teams to win 3 of 6, as you can see by close to half of the road teams losing a series after winning game 1.

So while its just game 1, and it’s a long series, you can argue that the first game is the most important. It sets the tone for the rest of the series.

I also have percentages of what happens in a series after 2 games, and I will post it tomorrow night.

NBA Playoff predictions: Round 1

Here are my predictions for Round 1 of the playoffs. Remember, I will amend these picks after each series has completed game 2.

#1 Cleveland vs #8 Chicago

I know people are saying the Bulls are dangerous because of what they did to Boston last year, but there are 2 big things to remember: Garnett didn’t play in that series, and the Bulls are without both John Salmons and Ben Gordon, translation: The Bulls are not as good now as they were last season at this time. This series won’t be the joke that the Pistons series was for the Cavs, but I don’t the Bulls threatening Cleveland, especially considering the Cavs hate them and will look to embarrass them.

Prediction: Cavs in 5

#2 Orlando vs #7 Charlotte

As I said last week, this is a bad matchup for the Bobcats. Orlando is playing its best basketball of the season, and they will want to make this a quick series because it is likely that the Hawks (Spoiler alert) will win their series easily. Charlotte is not good enough offensively to really put pressure on Orlando. They don’t have a low post scoring threat to get Howard in foul trouble, and they really don’t have a guy who can get in the paint. This will be a quick series with a team on a mission against a team happy to be there.

Prediction: Magic in 4

#3 Atlanta vs #6 Milwaukee

It really is a shame that Andrew Bogut got hurt because the Bucks really could’ve done some damage in these playoffs. They still went 4-2 without Bogut, but one of the 2 losses came against the Hawks, and in a series, the Bucks will miss his 16-10 and 2.5 blocks a game. Like Charlotte, I don’t think they are good enough offensively to muster up much of a challenge.

Prediction: Hawks in 5

#4 Boston vs #5 Miami

This is really where I was hoping a healthy Bucks team would end up because I think they would’ve beaten the Celtics easily. I am really amazed at how many people think this is the ’08 championship team. Can anyone point to anything positive this team has done recently? Even when they beat Cleveland they only played 3 quarters and almost blew a huge lead. They look old, and they don’t like each other. I know Boston won all 3 games that they played, but they haven’t played since Feb. 3, a lot has happened since then. Miami is better than people think, and they can give Boston some matchup problems especially with Michael Beasley. Remember, the Heat took Atlanta to game 7 last season.

Prediction: Heat in 6

#1 Lakers vs #8 Oklahoma City

This is a bad matchup for Oklahoma City. Pretty much all of their guys are going to the playoffs for the first time, and its Scott Brooks’ first playoff appearance as a coach. That stuff matters. Also, the Thunder’s big weakness is rebounding, and that is one of the Lakers big strengths. I also think that Ron Artest will frustrate Durant over the course of the series. Artest’s strength will bother KD. Lets not forget that Oklahoma City hasn’t been very good of late, and they are a bad team in crunch time. The reason they are playing the Lakers is because they blew a game in Portland Monday, a game they had a comfortable halftime lead in. The Lakers haven’t been great down the stretch, but they haven’t been terrible. Kobe has been in and out, and Andrew Bynum hasn’t played. This is different from the Celtics because the Lakers really aren’t old. Fisher is old and Kobe is older, but the rest of the team is still pretty much in their primes, they will be fine.

Prediction: Lakers in 5

#2 Dallas vs #7 San Antonio

I know the Spurs have played well down the stretch, but I just don’t get how so many people think the Spurs will win this series. I don’t see it. They are still really old, they aren’t very deep, and I don’t think the really have any matchups that really favor them, except for maybe Manu Ginobli. The Mavs are deeper, more versatile, and more athletic. Lets also remember that Dallas won the season series with the Spurs this season, and they destroyed San Antonio in this spot last season. San Antonio used to own the Mavs inside, that won’t happen in this series. I think once again the Mavs win it easily.

Prediction: Mavs in 5

#3 Phoenix vs #6 Portland

It’s really a shame that Brandon Roy can’t play because of the knee injury; otherwise this could’ve been a great series. Portland is just too weak at the wing positions to run with Phoenix, and they aren’t built to slow the game down because they don’t have a great low post threat, and they aren’t efficient enough offensively, which would slow the Suns down as well. It really feels like there is something special about this Suns team. I think Portland can win a game at home, but I don’t see them winning in Phoenix. Andre Miller as their best perimeter scorer will be a detriment.

Prediction: Suns in 5

#4 Denver vs #5 Utah

This is a weird series just because nobody is really sure who will be on the floor. Kirilenko is out for Utah, and that is a big loss because he could’ve done a good job on Carmelo Anthony. I think Utah’s best defense will wind up being their offense. They shoot 49% from the field, and they rebound well. That will slow Denver down, I also think that the Utah and the way they play will frustrate Denver, and lets be honest, The Nuggets are an insane group, and we are really seeing how valuable George Karl is because he was able to control the crazy guys. Denver hasn’t been the same since he left, and I don’t see how they get it back for this series. Plus Denver is awful on the road, and Utah finished with a winning record away from Salt Lake for the first time since I can remember.

Prediction: Jazz in 6

Playoff predictions coming soon

I’m going to do the same thing I did last season. I will make predictions now, and then I will amend those predictions after game 2 has been played. Last season I picked 7 of the 8 series correctly, I only missed on Dallas/San Antonio. After 2 games I didn’t change the winner for any series, I just adjusted the games. I picked the games each series would last correctly for all 7 series I got right, I got 4 of them correct before the series started, the remaining 3 I picked right after 2 games.

Here are my predictions from last season. This should help inspire an incredible amount of confidence in whatever I pick this season.

This link has the recap of my first round picks as well with the actual winners.

Scott Brooks should not be coach of the year

Scott Brooks has done a very good job in his first full season as an NBA head coach, and he will probably win coach of the year, but he shouldn't. I know the Thunder are going to the playoffs and more than doubled their win total from last season, but that sort of improvement should've been expected, especially when you consider how much talent there is on that roster.

The Thunder don't just have 4 lottery picks from the last 3 years in their rotation, they have 4 top 5 picks. Kevin Durant was picked 2nd in '07, Jeff Green was #5 in '07, Russell Westbrook was the 3rd pick back in '08. and James Harden was picked 4th this past draft. That sure is a lot of talent, and Brooks definitely deserves a lot of credit for getting a real young team to 50 wins, but is that the best coaching job of the season? Its not like he had to deal with a ton of injuries, and its not like the Thunder made a lot of changes in the offseason. Aside from Harden, he pretty much brought back the same young, incredibly talented team he had last season. If someone with the Thunder deserves an award, you have to give it to GM Sam Presti for drafting those guys.

Coach of the Year in the NBA is always a tough call. I don't know who should win it, but here are 5 guys that should be considered:

Scott Skiles (Milwaukee)- He again lost Michael Redd early in the season, that cost the Bucks a playoff spot last season, this season they didn't miss a beat. Skiles had to deal with a rookie point guard, and he seamlessly worked in 2 late season acquisitions in Jerry Stackhouse and John Salmons. They even continued to win after the gruesome Andrew Bogut injury.

Nate McMillan (Portland)- Had to deal with countless major injuries the entire season, and managed to finish ahead of Oklahoma City. He had to work in a new point guard at the start of the season, and then Marcus Camby at the deadline. If you win 50 games with Juwan Howard playing major minutes you have done some coaching.

Alvin Gentry (Phoenix)- Who saw 54 wins for Phoenix this season? He got a bunch of veterans to buy into his way of doing things. He also had to deal with all sorts of trade rumors for the first 4 months of the season.

Rick Adelman (Houston)- His team was left for dead last summer after Yao wasn't going to be able to play. He won 42 games with a team filled with role players in the Western Conference. He had to deal with Tracy McGrady, constant trade rumors, and a lot of injuries late in the season. He had the Rockets in playoff contention for most of the season, even though most people didn't think they would win 30 games. It is important to note that the only lottery picks that played minutes for the Rockets this season were McGrady, Shane Battier, and Jared Jeffries.

Can the Bobcats upset someone in the first round?

Wednesday night the Bobcats clinched a playoff spot for the first time in franchise history. They will be given no chance to compete against whoever they play, mostly because nobody has really seen them play. They haven't had a national TV game all season, and really, the only reason anyone has talked about them this season is because Michael Jordan bought a majority stake in the team. If you haven't seen them this season, you really haven't missed that much. They aren't overly exciting, they don't score a lot of points, in fact, only 2 teams in the league score less a game than they do, but that doesn't mean they aren't good. They are capable of shocking someone in the first round, here's why:

The Bobcats give up less than 94 points a game, that is the fewest in the NBA. They are big at every position other than point guard. They are 6-7 or bigger at the 2-5 spots, and they are athletic at all those spots, especially at the 3 where Gerald Wallace is as good a defender as their is in the league. They also have Tyson Chandler inside, who appears to be healthy, and will be a force inside as a shot blocker, he had 5 tonight against the Rockets.

The Bobcats traded for Tyrus Thomas at the deadline, and he has been big for them coming off the bench. He is hurt right now, and has missed the last 2 games and could miss more. If he is able to comeback and be a factor, he creates all sorts of matchup problems because of how athletic he is.

Another trade that Charlotte made this season was getting Stephen Jackson, who has been the big scorer that they lacked last season. When you are an underdog in a playoff series, you need a guy who is capable of taking over a game, Jack can do that, just ask the Mavericks. Then again he is also capable of blowing up as well, but that isn't important right now.

In case you didn't notice, and I'm willing to bet that you didn't, the Bobcats head coach is Larry Brown. Yep, the Larry Brown who won a ring in Detroit. Like Isiah Thomas at Florida International, I think Brown is coaching for free because the Knicks owe him so much money. Regardless of that, he is still one of the best coaches in the league, and will have his team ready to play, and he has done his fair share of winning playoff games, and doing it as a low seed.

All that being said, the perfect matchup for Charlotte in the first round would have been Boston. Jackson on Allen, Wallace on Pierce, and all of the sudden Boston could really struggle scoring points. The Charlotte athleticism inside would also give the Celtics fits, making point guard the only big position advantage for the Celtics. Plus, lets be honest, the Brown/Doc Rivers matchup is as big an advantage for Charlotte as the Rondo/Felton matchup is for Boston.

Alas, it looks like the Bobcats will be locked into the 7 seed, thus matching them up with Orlando in round. If thats the case, Charlotte is screwed, because many of those matchup problems Charlotte would've given Boston, they won't give Orlando, especially at the coaching spot. Plus, Tyrus Thomas has no chance to stay on the floor against Dwight Howard, and really, his shot blocking skills are almost useless because so many of Orlando's shots are jumpers outside the paint. Maybe Charlotte could dust off the owner and give him a few minutes.

Did Rick Adelman take a shot at Don Nelson

Wednesday night against Utah, Rockets coach Rick Adelman became the 11th coach in NBA history to win 900 games. On the same night Warriors coach Don Nelson became the winningest coach in NBA history. Nelson is 69, and lost 53 games last season, he has lost 54 so far this season. Many people believe that the record was the only reason why he is still coaching.

Adelman was asked about his achievement. Below is what he said. Pay careful attention to the end. Does it sound like Adelman takes a bit of a shot at Nellie?

He probably meant nothing by it, but I wasn't the only person in the room who thought he might have.

Podcast #7: Talking Rockets with Sports Radio 610's Shaun Bijani

SportsRadio 610's Shaun Bijani joined me for another Podcast. We started out talking briefly about the Astros and their early struggles. Among the things we discussed about the Rockets were the play of Trevor Ariza, the futures of Shane Battier and Yao Ming, and the Rockets free agency possibilities. We also made our championship predictions. We both picked different teams. The podcast lasts close to an hour. We recorded it at Toyota Center less than an hour and half before the Rockets/Jazz game, so it gets a little loud towards the end.

What if Yao decides to opt-out?

A year ago today, it was assumed that Yao Ming would opt out of the final year of his contract after this season. He was about finished with a regular season that saw him play 77 games, and average 20 points and 10 boards. Then Yao broke his foot in the playoffs against the Lakers, and the foot didn’t heal right, forcing him to miss this season. Yao couldn’t possibly opt out of over $15 million next season when he won’t play a minute this season could he? That is were the NBA’s expiring CBA enters in.

Whenever a new deal is struck between the owners and the players, it will likely benefit the owners, making this summer a more favorable environment for free agents, but more favorable to a guy who hasn’t played this season, and has his last 2 seasons cut short with foot injuries, and serious injuries the 2 years before that? I wouldn’t be shocked.

We are at a time in the NBA where making money is more important than winning, partly because most teams are having financial issues. Teams are much more willing to make moves that cost them wins if it helps them financially. Overpaying for Yao makes no sense basketball wise, but it’s a brilliant basketball move. Yao is a cash cow. He will sell a ton of season tickets, and open all sorts of new revenue streams for whatever team signs him. Don’t forget Yao is the most popular citizen of the planet’s most populated nation. That’s worth a lot of money.

I don’t think Yao will opt out this summer, but I think he will have a lot of people around him who will tell him too. The question is, if he does, at what lengths will the Rockets go to keep him, and who will be the team that offers him an enormous contract because somebody will.

Duke and Butler play a game for the ages

I spent a lot of time during the second half of the Butler/Duke game going through past championship games in my head. I was trying to figure out where this one stood. Turns out, we have been blessed with some great championship games, and I was just going back 15 years.

You had an amazing 3-year stretch in the late 90’s when in ‘97 Arizona upset Kentucky in Pitino’s last game at UK, the next year Kentucky stopped the mini-Cinderella run of Utah, who was a “little guy” even though they were a 3-seed. The Utes beat a great Arizona team that was a favorite to repeat with Mike Bibby and Miles Simon, in the regional final, and then beat North Carolina in the Final Four, a Carolina team with top 5 picks Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison. Then in ’99 an underrated UConn team with Richard Hamilton and Khalid El-Amin beat an elite Duke team that was riddled with guys picked in the top half of the first round- Elton Brand, Trajan Langdon, Corey Maggette, William Avery, and Shane Battier (’01 draft).

In the last decade you had the Syracuse/Kansas game in ’03, North Carolina/Illinois in ’05, and of course Kanas/Memphis in ’08, so no, last night’s Duke/Butler game isn’t the best of all-time, its not even the best championship game of the last 15 years, but it may very well go down as the most memorable.

It won’t be memorable for the talent that was assembled on the floor. Of the 15 guys who played serious minutes; none will likely play in an NBA all-star game. In terms of NBA talent this game could’ve been the worst in a long time. The only game that compares is the ’02 Indiana/Maryland game when the 2 best NBA players turned out to be Jared Jeffries and Steve Blake.

It won’t be memorable for a single performance. Kyle Singler was the game’s leading scorer, and he had just 19. Brian Zoubek was the game’s leading rebounder with just 10. Nobody had more than 2 blocks, nobody had more than 2 steals, and nobody had more than 5 assists.

It will be memorable for what it meant. A little school like Butler from the Horizon league going punch for punch with Duke for 40 minutes on the game’s biggest stage. They never trailed by more than 6 points, and there were times when it looked like Duke might take control and push the game to double digits, but they were able to dodge the patented Duke run, which is something that most big schools can’t avoid. It will be memorable for the intensity at which the game was played. There wasn’t a dull moment, at no point did you feel like you could change the channel, mostly because the game was close the entire way.

But most of all it will be memorable for the last 2 minutes, and the late comeback that Butler was able to make to give themselves a chance to win the game in the last minute a couple of times. It will be memorable for the stops Butler had to make at the end to give themselves a shot, and for the great defense that Duke played on Butler’s final possession, forcing Gordon Hayward into a tough fade away. And of course, it will be memorable for Hayward’s half court prayer that almost banked in. The collective “OOH” from the huge crowd at Lucas Oil stadium captured it perfectly.

The greatest game of all-time? No. The most memorable? Only time will tell.

Why Duke is better than we thought it was

I didn’t think it was possible, but for once we actually underrated Duke. That’s right, the Cowboys/Yankees/Lakers of college basketball was actually taken lightly after a half decade of March disappointments. A Duke team that won the ACC regular season and conference tournament championships was an after thought. They’re soft, they’re not athletic, all they do is shoot 3’s. That was the Duke image coming into this tournament a few weeks ago. That image should now be erased.

Why did we take this Duke team for granted? That is an easy one. 2004 was their last final four appearance coming into this season, that is the biggest drought in the Coach K era. They had pretty much flamed out in the last 5 tournaments, losing to a lower seed in all 5 losses, including getting blown off the court last season against Villanova in the regional semifinal. That is why this Duke team, even though they were ranked high all season, and even though they were a one seed, were not considered contenders.

We all got it wrong with this Duke team. This certainly isn’t the best Duke team to ever come through the pipes, but it is real good. Here are the 4 biggest reasons why the Devils have come obscurity, as obscure as Duke can be, and are 40 minutes away from their 4^th championship:

Size

Duke basically plays 8 players. Only 2 of those players (Nolan Smith and Andre Dawkins) are shorter than 6-5. Jon Scheyer is 6-5, Kyle Singler and Lance Thomas are 6-8, the Plumlee’s are 6-10, and Brian Zoubek is 7-1. That is an incredible amount of size, and almost impossible to matchup with.

Rebounding/Toughness

These haven’t exactly been Duke calling cards in recent years, but now they are the best rebounding team in the nation. Just ask Baylor. If not for 19 offensive rebounds Duke doesn’t make it out of Houston. That is where their size is such a major factor, especially at the offensive end. They have an ability to keep possessions alive that frustrates opponents like nothing else will. 2 of their last 3 wins have come against Purdue and West Virginia, 2 of the most physical teams you could ever play, and not only did Duke come out alive, they came out with the rebounding edge.

Chemistry

I feel like Duke basketball players probably live in a bit of a cocoon, as do all major conference basketball teams do, so they spend a great deal off time off the court with each other. One of the things that really stuck out during the Houston regional was how often Coach K talked about how much his players genuinely liked one another more than any team he has ever coached. You can’t undervalue how important this is. When you are around a group of people for so much time, it helps when everyone gets along.

The Big 3

With Scheyer, Smith and Singler, the Devils have 3 big time scoring options. All 3 are capable of putting up 20 points any night, and that makes the game a lot easier. This could be the biggest difference between this Duke team and previous Duke teams. I don’t think there is a better trio in the nation, and it all starts with the improvement of Smith. He has brought a dynamic to the Duke offense that I don’t think they have had since Jason Williams. He can break down a defense, and Duke has really lacked that for quite some time. They always had the spot up shooters, but as Charles Barkley says every Thursday night “You don’t live by the 3, you die by the 3”. Duke hasn’t had to live by the 3 this season. With the emergence of Smith, Duke has been able to survive the brutal 1-11 game Scheyer had against Cal, as well as the 0-11 that Singler had against Baylor. You can survive awful games by your stars when you have guys capable of picking up the slack, and this Duke team has that.

Eagles end McNabb era with class

This may come as a surprise, but people in Philadelphia are not happy today. Not only did the Eagles trade Donovan McNabb, they traded to a team they will play twice every season, forcing Eagle fans to stomach seeing the best QB in franchise history play against them year after year, until his careers comes to an end.

Football wise, this was not a great move. Its not like the Skins overpaid for McNabb, hell they underpaid for him, especially when you consider the Broncos got a replacement QB, plus 2 first round picks and a third rounder for Jay Cutler last season, but this was a very different circumstance, and the Eagles didn’t have the interest in McNabb that the Bears had in Cutler. Even though they traded him to a team in their own division, they did the right thing.

They let him leave with grace, they didn’t ship him off somewhere he didn’t want to play, which could have made for an uncomfortable hold out situation that would have made him look bad, like the Pats did with Richard Seymour last season. They did the classy thing, and trust me, other players around the league noticed this as well. Treating players with respect makes players want to take less money just to go play there. By letting McNabb pick his new team the Eagles showed loyalty, and that is something that is missing right now in sports.