Stating the case for the 2009-10 Houston Rockets

At this time a year ago, had this blog been around I would have been stating my case why the ’08-’09 Rockets were going to win the NBA Championship. That obviously won’t be happening this year, but what I will do is state why I believe the Rockets will sneak into the playoffs this season, and be a headache for everyone they play this season.

First, in order for the Rockets to miss the playoffs one of the 7 teams that missed the playoffs last season will have to step up , lets take a look at the non playoff teams out West:

Sacramento- Will be lucky to win 25 games

Minnesota- Way too young

Golden State- The Knicks of the Western Conference

Memphis- See Sacramento

LA Clippers- One of those teams that people are talking about as a surprise team, but I’ve head this before with them, and Blake Griffin is already hurt.

Phoenix- They are old, and their best young player (Stoudemire) is always hurt, and never happy. Not exactly a recipe for a playoff team

Oklahoma City- The darlings of the NBA right now. There is no doubt they are talented and have incredible upside. They played well at the end of last season, but lets not forget they won just 23 games. I don’t forsee a 20 game jump in wins just yet.

I wouldn’t be shocked if one of those teams made the playoffs, but that’s it. Therefore the Rockets would need one 2009 playoff team to drop out of the top 8, and that’s an easy pick. New Orleans is a one man team, and that one man can’t carry them anymore. The Hornets will be back in the lottery, and Byron Scott won’t make it past the All Star break.

Last year it took 48 wins to make the playoff in the West, that is an insane amount of wins. The top 6 teams won more than 50, Phoenix, who finished 9^th won 46 games. There was a 17 game drop off between the Suns and the 10^th team Golden State. I bring this up just to show that the West is very uneven, and the bottom feeders, the teams above, are still not close to the same class as the top 9, which includes the Rockets.

While the Rockets won’t have to win 48 games to make the playoffs, I believe that they will have to get at least 44 wins, and I think they can do that. I love the Artest/Ariza swap for the Rockets. Ariza was the third best player on the Lakers championship team, and I think he has a lot of potential that we haven’t seen. He will also make the Rockets the best perimeter defensive team in the league. Ariza is a better one on one defender than Artest, and of course Shane Battier showed against the Lakers that he is just as good. The Rockets will struggle to defend inside at times, mostly because they don’t have great size, but I really don’t think there are many teams that will be able to take advantage of that weakness.

Here are some other reasons why the Rockets will make the playoffs:

Rick Adelman

When Rick Adelman took the Rockets job he thought he was going to have a team built around Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. That has never worked out, but the Rockets have still won over 50 games in both his seasons in Houston. I don’t think there is a better coach in the NBA at getting the most out of what he has to work with. He is at an advantage this season because he has known all offseason that he won’t have Yao or McGrady, so this season he doesn’t have to completely redo his offense midseason. Adelman is great at putting guys in the right spot on the floor and giving them a chance to succeed. He could easily be the most underrated coach in the league over the last 20 years.

Darryl Morey

Has Morey been wrong about anything since taking over as GM? As good as he has been, its hard to think that the Rockets won’t get solid contributions out of at least 1 of the 3 new additions that came through the draft or free agency- Chase Buddinger, Jermaine Taylor, and David Andersen.

Tracy McGrady

He is going to comeback at some point this season. I don’t know if he will make any positive contributions, but I think he will. He’s in a contract year, and he’s got a lot to prove. The last year has been rough on him, and I think he’ll comeback with a little fire in his belly. Even if he makes no impact this season, you will have to watch out for him come trade deadline time. There are a lot of teams that will be in bad financial shape who have contracts that they want to unload. McGrady could be a valuable trade chip, as most big expiring contracts tend to be.

The Class of '07

Aaron Brooks, Luis Scola, and Carl Landry are all in their third NBA seasons, and all 3 have been very productive in years one and two, especially Brooks, who took over playoff games last season. Its hard not to think that they will continue to get better and more consistent in year 3, especially Brooks. Year 3 tends to be year when point guards come into their own and become a force on a consistent basis, example: Rondo last season, Chris Paul and Deron Williams in ’08.

Summary

Aside from the Artest/Ariza swap this is basically the same time Rockets team that split 4 games against the Lakers in the playoffs. They will be better defensively along the perimeter, and while they won’t have a star to run the offense through, the offense will run smoother without Artest to clog things up. For whatever reason the Rockets play better when nothing is expected of them, and the same should happen this season. Their defense will be terrific all season, and that will keep them in games. There is too much character on this team for it for it to fall off so dramatically.

3:43 left in 4th Quarter: Texans 24 Niners 21

The Niners spent Top 6 picks on Alex Smith (#1 in '05) and Vernon Davis (#6 in '06) and the two of them of gotten San Francisco back in the football game. Smith just threw his third touchdown pass since entering the game at the start of the second half, all 3 to Davis. Smith is 13-16 for 174 yards. Frank Gore has run for just 32 yards. Regardless of how this game finishes, you have to think that Alex Smith may get a chance to start for San Francisco. Michael Crabtree has 5 catches for 56 yards.

11:01 left in 3rd Quarter: Texans 21 Niners 7

Alex Smith might have provided the Niners a spark. They go right down the field and finally get on the board, as Smith found Vernon Davis for a 29 yard TD pass. Smith completed both his passes on the drive. Now the question is, can San Francisco get a stop to allow themselves to try and get back in the game.

Alex Smith at QB

Alex Smith starts the second half as the 49ers QB. Shaun Hill was just 6-11 for 45 yards in the first half. Smith just found Michael Crabtree for a 17 yard catch on his first throw. Smith was the first pick in the draft in '05, but hasn't played much in the last 2 years.

4:24 left in 2nd Quarter: Texans 21 Niners 0

The rout is on, as Owen Daniels catches a 42 yard touchdown catch on a play that was executed perfectly. Schaub rolled right on a play fake with Andre Johnson streaking deep on the right side. Owen Daniels was left wide open deep on the left side. Daniels has 100 yards receiving already today. Houston has outgained SF 178-30.

6:46 left in 2nd Quarter: Texans 14 Niners 0

San Francisco finally picks up a first down, as Michael Crabtree has made an impact. He has 2 catches for 22 yards, his second catch came along the sideline on a 3rd and long to keep a drive alive. Right after that play the 49ers got 6 yards using the wildcat, but the drive stalled from there.

10:40 left in 2nd Quarter: Texans 14 Niners 0

Arnez Battle muffed a punt at his own 15, that set the Texans up at the 10, and once again Steve Slaton gets in the endzone. This time it came on a little swing pass. The Texans got a way with a hold. Slaton hasn't done much on the ground, but he is getting plenty of touches. The 49ers have a net total of 1 yard and 0 first downs.

2:27 left in 1st Quarter: Texans 7 Niners 0

The drive started with Owen Daniels, who got the Texans in the red zone, then Steve Slaton did the rest, converting a 3 and long, and then running it in from 2 yards. The San Francisco defense has been on the field for about 9 minutes already.

6:38 left in 1st Quarter: Texans 0 Niners 0

Each team has had the ball twice, and we've seen just 1 first down. The Niners have been backed up both times they've had the ball, so the Texans will start this drive with good field position again. Both Dlines have played well so far. Mario Williams has a sack, and the 49ers have had pressure on Matt Schaub. Terrific battle today will be Owen Daniels against Patrick Willis. Daniels just beat Willis for a 31 yard catch.

41 and 43 in the building

Presidents George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush are in the building. They just walked out onto the field and got a nice ovation from the fans that are here. 41 is a regular at all Houston sporting events. I don't think George W has ever been to a Texans game. He was in office when they came into the league.

Live: 49ers at Texans

The weather couldn't be any better for one of the most interesting games of the week. The Texans are looking to get over .500 after 7 games. They have never been over .500 that late in the season before. The Niners are coming off a bye week, 2 weeks ago they were slaughtered at home by Atlanta. It is also the debut of Michael Crabtree. It will be interesting to see how big a factor he is against a very average Texans secondary. Its a homecoming for Mike Singletary who is from Houston, as is Gary Kubiak. The roof is open, there doesn't appear to be any wind, and the referee is Mike Carey. Here are the inactives:

Houston

WR Glenn Martinez

S Nick Ferguson

CB Fred Bennett

LB Jamie Winborn

G Tutan Reeves

TE Anthony Hill

DT Frank Okam

QB Dan Orlovsky- 3rd QB

San Francisco

QB Nate Davis

WR Michael Spurlock

S Reggie Smith

S Michael Lewis

C Cody Wallace

WR Brandon Jones

WR Jason Hill

DT Ricky-Jean Francois

A look back at past MLB tiebreakers

They are underway at the Metrodome for the Tigers/Twins tiebreaker. I love the MLB tiebreakers. I don't think there is a worse way for your season to end. At least if you lose in game 7 of the world series your season can still be considered a success, but if you lose in a tiebreaker your season is a failure cause you don't even make the playoffs. If the Tigers lose tonight they choke away the division, if the Twins lose, they basically made a great comeback for nothing. There were only 3 tiebreakers from 1948-1994, the game today is the 6th since the playoffs expanded to 8 teams. Here is a look back at the last 5:

1995 AL West- Angels at Mariners

The Angels blew a big September lead in the West and had to face Randy Johnson at the Kingdome. Johnson allowed 1 run in a complete game win. The Mariners would then come from 0-2 down to beat the Yankees in that classic game 5 in Seattle, The Mariners won all 3 games at home, and it was one of the reasons why Safeco Field was built, so you can say that game saved baseball in Seattle.

1998 NL Wild Card- Giants at Cubs

Both teams lost their final regular season and played a tiebreaker at Wrigley. Sammy Sosa went 2-for-4, while Barry Bonds went 0-for-4. San Francisco trailed 5-0 going into the 9th, they would rally and get the tying run to the plate. Rod Beck, who was pitching on fumes only getting his fastball up to 80-81, got Joe Carter to pop out to not only end the game and the Giants season, but Carter's career. A couple of years later, Carter would wind up doing TV for the Cubs, who were swept by Atlanta in the NLDS.

1999 NL Wild Card- Mets at Reds

The Mets are the only road team to win during this stretch. I talked about the Reds collapse a couple of days ago. Edgardo Alfonzo homered in the first inning, and that all Al Leiter would need. He threw a 2-hit shutout. The Mets beat Arizona in the NLDS, then lost in 6 games to Atlanta in the NLCS.

2007 NL Wild Card- Padres at Rockies

Without question the best tiebreaker of this stretch. The Padres lost their last 2 games in Milwaukee, while Colorado was the hottest team in the league. The Rockies would take an early lead against Jake Peavy, only to see the Padres comeback and take the lead. The game would go to extra innings. In the 13th the Padres took a 2-run lead, only to see the Rockies win it as Trevor Hoffman blew the save. Best known for Matt Holliday not touching homeplate on the Game winning run.

2008 AL Central- Twins at White Sox

Also a terrific game that had to be played on Tuesday, because the White Sox had to make up a game with the Tigers first. Jim Thome hit a solo homer in the 7th which was the games only run. The were only 7 hits in the game, 5 by Chicago.

Final: Texans 29 Raiders 6

The Texans badly needed a win today, and they got it with relative ease beating the Raiders 29-6. All of the offense came in the first half, with the Texans scoring 20 points on 282 total yards. Steve Slaton had a rushing TD, the Texans first this season, and he had a receiving TD as well in the 2nd quarter. The Texans scored 9 points in the second half, the defense forced a safety, and then Jacoby Jones ran back the ensuing kick for a touchdown. The Texans ran 33 plays in the second half, only 6 were pass plays. They ran it 25 times, but were only able to rush for 38 yards. The Texans averaged less than 3 yards a carry today which is a concern for Gary Kubiak. Andre Johnson had just 2 catches. The Texans defense was terrific, especially the Dline, which played its best game of the season.

The Raiders offense was inept, especially in the second half. JaMarcus Russell finished 12-33 for 128 yards. He did not throw a touchdown or interception. His QB rating today was 48.5. In the second half he completed just 5 of 15 passes for 48 yards. I thought he was decent in the first half, especially when they got him out of the pocket, but in the second half he was bad. Partly because his offensive line was bad, and they couldn't run the ball. Also didn't help that they were behind. Russell is at his worst when he his in passing situations, and has to drop straight back. The Raiders ran for just 45 yards, 2 yards a carry, and 20 of those yards came on an end around by Darrius Heyward-Bey, so in reality they ran for 25 yards on 21 carries. Darren McFadden ran it 6 times for -3 yards. I though the Oakland defense played very well, except for the second quarter when they couldn't stop the run, and blown coverages on a 62 yard catch by Andre Johnson, and a 44 yard catch by Owen Daniels.

Texans start a crucial stretch the next 2 weeks as they go on the road to Arizona and then to Cincinnati. They play 4 of the next 5 games on the road, after that, the schedule eases up a bit.

End 3rd Quarter: Texans 29 Raiders 6

The Raiders defense is now playing much better, they just can't get any help from the offense. A Matt Turk punt pinned the Raiders at their 1 yard line, the resulted in a safety, then Jacoby Jones ran back the free kick for a touchdown. The Texans front 4 is playing their best game of the season, Brian Cushing has also played well. For all that the Raiders invested in Darren McFadden, I'm amazed at how quickly they gave up on him. Justin Fargas is getting the bulk of the carries now for Oakland.

Halftime: Texans 20 Raiders 6

The Texans outgained Oakland 282-119 in the first half to jump out to a 20-6 lead, outscoring the Raiders 17-3 in the second quarter. The Texans ran for 82 yards on 16 carries, while the Raiders ran for just 41 yards on 12 carries, 20 coming on an end around by Darius Heyward-Bey. I said Darren McFadden would run for 100+ yards. He has -5 on three caries, might not get that prediction right. The numbers for JaMarcus Russell don't look good, but I think he has been pretty decent. He has had no time to throw, and his receivers have dropped a couple of passes as well.

10:39 left in 2nd Quarter: Texans 13 Raiders 3

Texans get their first rushing TD of the season. They go 6 plays for 67 yards, all of it came on the ground. The Texans are having success on the ground for the first time this season. The defense has also played very well. Oakland cannot run the football which is the only way they can win this game, even though I've been surprised by Russell, he has been good. The Texans special teams have also been good. Oakland has done nothing on kick returns.

2:33 left in 1st Quarter: Texans 3 Raiders 3

Raiders get great field position after a Slaton fumble. They get called for 2 straight false starts, but Russell does a good job on third down and long to complete a pass and setup Janikowski for a 46-yard field goal attempt which he made.

5:57 left in 1st Quarter Texans 3 Raiders 0

Texans get a 62 yard reception from Andre Johnson to set themselves up inside the 10, but they are only able to get a field goal out of it. On the Johnson catch it looked like a blown assignment by Michael Huff. Raiders go 3 and out again. Their OLine is off to a bad start. Amobi Okoye sacked Russell.

9:34 left in 1st Quarter Raiders 0 Texans 0

Texans are stalled at midfield, after picking up a couple of first downs. They got a good run from Steve Slaton on the second play of the game. Raiders go 3 and out pinned inside their 20. JaMarcus Russell looked good completing both his passes, including on third and long when he escaped the pass rush. Darren McFadden lost 4 yards on his only carry, the Texans Dline badly overpowered the Raiders Oline.

Raiders/Texans Inactives

Here are the Inactives for the Texans/Raiders game:

Houston:

WR Glen Martinez

FS Eugene Wilson

CB Antwaun Molden

CB Jacques Reeves

C Antoine Caldwell

TE Anthony Hill

DT Frank Okam

Dan Orlovsky is the 3rd Quarterback

Wilson is a surprise to this list, the Texans are saying he is ill. Dominique Barber will start in his place. Reeves was expected to start today, but he injured his hand in practice this week. Hill has Swine Flu.

Oakland

S Hiram Eugene

G RObert Gallery

G Paul McQuistan

WR Chaz Schilens

TE Brandon Myers

WR Javon Walker

WR Nick Miller

Charlie Frye is the 3rd Quarterback

It has been raining for the last 20 hours in Houston, and its going to keep raining, so the roof is closed. The Texans will wear the white jerseys with the blue pants, Raiders are going with silver and black. The referee is Don Carey.

Live: Raiders at Texans

I've been so excited all week to see the Raiders. In my head I just imagined the Raiders people coming up the elevator together with walkers and oxygen tanks, all of them wearing silver and black jumpsuits. Imagine my disappointment when it turned out that all of the Raiders people are normal, at least so far. They do have great media notes that are bound into a 150 page book. On the front cover is the 50 anniversary logo, and below that it says "Team of the Decades". The back cover has the Raiders logo, above in big block letters it says "Commitment to Excellence". Did you know the Raiders have played in 5 Super Bowls in 4 decades? Did you know the Raiders are one of 2 teams in NFL history to play in a conference championship in 5 different decades? Did you know that the Raiders have the highest win percentage of any of the original AFL Teams? Did you know the Raiders are now a joke?

That last note isn't actually in the book.

This is as close as a must win game as you can have in October for the Texans. The first 4 games of the season was supposed to be the easy part of the schedule, with 3 homes games, against 3 teams that missed the playoffs last season. A loss today means they will be 1-3, with losses in all 3 home games. They are at Arizona and Cincinnati the next 2 weeks.

I can see the Raiders scoring some points in this game. The Texans D is awful against the run, so expect the Raiders to run it a lot with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. McFadden has just one 100 yard game in his career, I can easily see him having over 100 today. I also can't wait to see JaMarcus Russell, and I'm curious to see if he struggles will Tom Cable bench him. I'll have inactives in the next few minutes, and I will be blogging throughout the game.

The Metrodome being closed out in style

Today marks the end of a great era of Major League Baseball. It is the final regular season game in the Metrodome. I never went to a game there, but I always wanted too. It was such a quirky place. You have the baggie in right field, back in the old days you had the boards above the wall, like a hockey arena, separating the fans from the outfielders, and my favorite, the white ceiling, making the simplest pop-up an adventure. The Twins will play the final at the Metrodome in the midst of a playoff race, tied with the Tigers for first place in the Central, after being 3 back after losing on Wednesday

Saturday marked the 10-year anniversary of the final regular season game ever played at the Astrodome. It was the end of a great playoff race in the National League, where you had the Astros and Reds fighting it out in the Central, and the Braves and Mets battling in the East. All 4 teams were even, making it a battle of 4 teams going for their own division title and the Wild Card. The Diamondbacks ran away from everyone out West. Atlanta had a great September, which helped them pull away from the pack; they would win 103 games that season. Going into that last weekend the Astros and Reds were both 95-64 after splitting a 2-game series at the Dome, and the Mets were 2 games back at 93-66, so the Astros and Reds had a Magic Number of 2 too clinch a playoff spot. All 3 teams played teams below .500. The Astros hosted the Dodgers, the Reds were at Milwaukee, and the Mets were home for the Pirates.

Both the Astros and Reds lost Friday night, and the Mets won to climb within a game of each for the Wild Card. On Saturday the Astros and Mets both won, while the Reds lost again to the Brewers. So going into Sunday the Astros led the central by a game, while the Mets and Reds were tied for the Wild Card. On Sunday in the last regular season game at the Astrodome, the Astros beat the Dodgers to clinch the Central, the Mets beat Pittsburgh again to clinch a tie for the Wild Card, pending the Reds game in Milwaukee. That game was delayed hours due to rain, so the Reds had to sit around all day waiting to play for their lives after having lost 3 in a row, hoping to get into a tiebreaker against the Mets the next night. They beat the Brewers 7-1 in a game that featured a pitching matchup of Pete Harnisch beating Cal Eldred. The Reds would go onto be shutout the next night by the Mets in the Tiebreaker game in Cincinnati.

By the way, the Reds would trade for Ken Griffey Jr during the offseason, in a deal that was supposed to put the Reds over the hump, and mark the return of the Big Red Machine, Whoops.

NOTE: I have clue who is that picture, I found it on Google. I do know that it was taken at an Astros/Indians game in 1999, note the scoreboard and the 1998 Central Division banner. Also that is very close to where my seats were.

The Return of Cougar High

Last week Texas beat UTEP 64-7, this week UTEP beat Houston 58-41, so that means Texas would beat Houston like 80-10 right? For the last 3 weeks the University of Houston was the flavor of the month in college football, after beating Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, climbing up to #12 in the Coaches Poll. The Cougars were one of 3 teams (Boise State and TCU) that could crash the BCS party. Their toughest games were supposed to be at Mississippi State and Tulsa. You can kiss the BCS goodbye after the Cougars lost in El Paso 58-31, after jumping out to a 10-0 lead. UH allowed 41 second half points to an offense that looked inept last week in Austin.

If you watched the Houston/Texas Tech game last week, you saw Houston’s Achilles heal, that is their run defense. Tech ran the ball at will, and that’s what UTEP did. They ran for over 300 yards, including Donald Buckram running for 262 yards on 32 carries. What was most impressive about Buckram’s game is that his longest carry only went for 32 yards. Normally when a back has a huge game like that its because of a long run of like 60-70 yards, that when you take that one run out of the equation it brings the yards per carry average down 2+ yards, not the case for Buckram. He averaged 8.2 yards per carry. If you take out the 32 yard run, the average drops less than a yard to 7.4 yards per carry. That is what I call consistency, and that is what I call a glaring weakness. If Kendall Hunter stays healthy, there is no way Houston beats Oklahoma State.